EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Miguel Tobon #466Colombia2Daniel Salazar Martinez #691Colombia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Mon 26 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions3–443%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMiguel Tobon · 225 places

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

Structured player data lists Tobon at No. 499, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #466
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Colombia

Tennis Abstract lists him as 25, with a career-best ranking of No. 798 reached in July 2026. No reliable source in the requested search set established a preferred surface or active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #691
Peak ranking: #798 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Tobon is the higher-ranked player with the better clay scalps, so he is the likelier winner — but his matches keep going the distance and Salazar's even first-set split keeps the opener close.

Salazar at 4.75 to win the match and 3.8 to take the first set are the two prices that offer value; Tobon at 1.15 and 1.22 asks far more than his record justifies.

Context

The match placed Tobon one win from the Guayaquil main draw, giving this fixture immediate tournament context. His three-set recovery distinguishes the result from a routine qualifying scoreline. Zeballos entered the event as an alternate, so the result does not on its own establish how Tobon will handle Salazar Martinez.
- Tobon overturned a one-set deficit against Zeballos in the opening qualifying round .
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:15 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026
Tobon has been winning on clay this autumn, but rarely in straight sets.
Tobon won only three of eight opening sets on clay in that window, so his route has usually run through a second-set recovery. First sets in the sample averaged 8.25 games against 9.875 in second sets, and three of the eight matches contained a tiebreak. The sample covers eight matches and describes how those matches unfolded, not a forecast of fatigue here. Salazar's shorter clay matches are the counterweight to the pattern.
- Eight clay best-of-three matches from 29 September to 25 October 2026: 5 wins, 3 losses, average 25.4 total games and 2.75 sets.
- Set-by-set record in that sample: set one 3-5, set two 5-3; game averages of 8.25 in first sets and 9.875 in second sets.
- Three of the eight matches contained a tiebreak; scorelines were one 2-0 win, four 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses and one 0-2 loss.
The Mejia win is the clearest evidence that Tobon can beat a higher-ranked player on this surface.
Tobon dropped the first set and still won, which fits the wider pattern of slow starts followed by recoveries on clay. The match lasted three sets and he took it 17 games to 14, a narrow margin against a player ranked more than 300 places above him. Against Salazar, ranked 691, that headroom is the main reason Tobon starts favourite, though a single match is not a form trend.
- 22 October 2026: Tobon beat Nicolas Mejia (ranked 115) 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 on clay in a completed best-of-three match.
- Games in that match: 17 won, 14 lost, with no retirement.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon has the higher ranking and the stronger recent clay wins against higher-ranked opponents.
- Ranked 466 against 691 and 5-3 on clay in this sample.
- Clay wins include Mejia (115) and Barrios Vera (155).
- Current clay total points won 51.0% and games 50.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMiguel TobonEstimated chance60%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's clay matches tend to run long, and a three-set match would clear this line.
- Tobon's clay matches average 25.4 total games.
- Tobon's eight clay matches average 2.75 sets.
- Six of Tobon's eight clay matches went three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon has repeatedly gone three sets on clay, and his first-set record makes a decider plausible.
- Tobon's eight clay matches average 2.75 sets.
- Six of Tobon's eight clay matches went three sets.
- Salazar's 12 clay matches average 2.17 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.80
The read
Salazar's first-set record is balanced while Tobon's is below .500 on clay.
- Salazar's set1 record is 6-6 on clay.
- Tobon's set1 record is 3-5 on clay.
- Salazar's set1 total games average 8.75.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniel Salazar MartinezEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon is more likely to need and win the second set after his slow starts.
- Tobon's set2 record is 5-3 on clay.
- Salazar's set2 record is 8-4 on clay.
- Tobon's set2 total games average 9.875.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMiguel TobonEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in Salazar's clay matches, which makes a no-tiebreak match slightly more likely.
- Salazar had one tiebreak in 12 clay matches.
- Tobon had three tiebreaks in eight clay matches.
- Salazar's set2 sample has no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Miguel Tobon

9W 6L

6-1 6-4#837Federico Zeballos

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2#340Valerio Aboian

4-6 6-2 7-6(1)#115Nicolas Mejia

6-1 2-6 6-4#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 6-2#177Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(2)#155Tomas Barrios Vera

4-6 6-4 6-1#587Thiago Cigarran

6-2 3-6 6-1#298Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(1) 6-1#209Edas Butvilas

6-3 6-3#896Koray Kirci

6-2 6-4#263Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-1#369Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-2 6-1#618Pietro Orlando Fellin

7-6(4) 6-2#426Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#875Lorenzo Claverie

Daniel Salazar Martinez

8W 7L

6-3 6-1#298Juan Bautista Torres

6-3 6-1#504Alan Magadan

6-3 6-4#816Benjamin Torrealba

6-3 6-7(1) 3-0 ret.#819Mwendwa Mbithi

6-3 6-3—Felipe Rivadeneira Gallegos

6-1 6-2—Mario Andre Galarraga

6-4 6-2#663Lucas Andrade Da Silva

4-6 6-2 6-4—Felipe Rivadeneira Gallegos

6-3 6-3—Valentino Grippo

1-6 7-6(3) 10-2#737Nico Hipfl

6-2 6-2#424Mika Petkovic

4-6 7-5 5-2 ret.#726Michael Agwi

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#836Wojciech Marek

6-3 6-2—Darrshan Suresh

6-1 6-4—Jannik Maute

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMiguel TobonTobon

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniel Salazar MartinezMartinezDM

Miguel Tobon carries the stronger recent form — Daniel Salazar Martinez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.5%+3.5pp56.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.8%+1.9pp66.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.0%+1.3pp52.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.6+1.22.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.63.2 fewer1.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.7%—40.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1546.4%+7.9pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.0%+6.7pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.3%+0.8pp50.5%

Serve · 3–2

59.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp56.0%

68.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp66.9%

51.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp52.3%

3.6Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.22.4

4.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.2 fewer1.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—40.4%

Pressure · 2–0

46.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp38.5%

62.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.7pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp50.5%