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Predictions graded

Lucio Ratti #370Argentina1Mateo Del PinoArgentina2

Sets 5-7 · 6-2 · 5-7Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Lucio Ratti

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, born 27 January 2004. Public player data lists a career-best No. 367 on 20 July 2026 and identifies hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #370
Peak ranking: #367 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Mateo Del Pino

Argentina

Argentine left-hander listed at 173 cm, ranked No. 1103 in the 12 October list. Arrived in Cali on six straight defeats, every one in straight sets, the latest a first-round loss on clay at the Quito M15.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Ratti's clay record is only 7-7 and Del Pino has lost six straight, so this third qualifying round lacks a clean favourite despite Ratti's 6-3 6-4 opener in Guayaquil.

Ratti is the likelier winner in ordinary terms, but nothing at 1.02 or 1.08 justifies support. The worthwhile prices sit on Del Pino: 7 for the first set, 6.5 for the second, 10 for the match and 12 for a 2-0 win.

Context

Del Pino's clay results have been short and decided in two sets, which shapes how this qualifying match is likely to be framed if he stays competitive.
Del Pino's clay matches have averaged only 17.2 total games, with second sets averaging 8.45 games. Eight of the 11 ended 0-2, so his defeats have been clean rather than extended. The upside is that his three wins were also 2-0, meaning a competitive version of Del Pino tends to close sets out rather than trade them.
- Del Pino's 11 completed clay matches from 20 July to 18 October 2026 produced no three-set scorelines.
- Eight of those 11 matches ended 0-2; the other three ended 2-0.
- His clay matches averaged 17.2 total games across 11 matches, with second sets averaging 8.45 games.
Ratti's clay matches have regularly stretched past two sets, which keeps a decider in play even when he is the stronger player.
Ratti's clay matches have averaged 22.5 total games and 108.2 minutes across 14 matches. His scorelines split into five 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, four 1-2 losses and three 0-2 losses. That spread matters here because his opponent's clay matches have all finished in straight sets, so the two records pull in different directions on match length.
- Ratti's 14 completed clay matches from 18 August to 25 October 2026 averaged 22.5 total games.
- Six of those 14 matches went to a third set: two 2-1 wins and four 1-2 losses.
- Average match duration on clay was 108.2 minutes across 14 matches.
Ratti enters this fixture directly from a completed Guayaquil qualifying match . The straight-sets result establishes his route into this stage and places the match in the immediate continuation of the same event. It is a single tournament result, rather than a broader account of his recent level.
- Ratti defeated Rubini 6-3, 6-4 in Guayaquil qualifying .
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:01 · Europe/BucharestTennis.com match recordwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026
Ratti's serve has held up reasonably on first serve but his break-point conversion and defence have been middling.
Ratti has won 64.9% of first-serve points (431 of 664) but only 49.7% of second-serve points across the same 15 matches. Saving under half of the break points he has faced leaves games hanging on a couple of points. Against an opponent whose clay matches have been short, those small margins decide whether sets run to 6-4 or slip away entirely.
- Ratti saved 46 of 99 break points (46.5%) across his last 15 tracked matches.
- He converted 56 of 136 break points (41.2%) over the same 15 matches.
- He won 64.9% of first-serve points (431 of 664) and 49.7% of second-serve points (177 of 356).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ratti has stronger clay results and much better set-level numbers, while Del Pino has lost six recent matches.
- Ratti is 7-7 on clay in the supplied set sample; Del Pino is 4-8.
- Ratti won 50.8% of clay points and 51.7% of clay games; Del Pino has no serve or return metrics supplied.
- Del Pino has 3 first-set wins and 3 second-set wins in 11 clay matches.
- Ratti beat Alessandro Rubini 6-3 6-4 in Guayaquil qualifying on 25 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLucio RattiEstimated chance70%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets involving Del Pino have been short, often 6-3 or 6-2.
- Del Pino's clay second sets average 8.45 total games.
- Ratti's clay second sets average 9.29 total games.
- Del Pino has lost eight of 11 clay second sets.
- No second-set tiebreaks appear in Del Pino's 11 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino's poor first-set scoring has produced shorter sets.
- Del Pino's clay first sets average 8.73 total games.
- Ratti's clay first sets average 9.21 total games.
- Only three first-set tiebreaks appear across the two clay samples.
- Del Pino has lost eight of 11 clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ratti's clay matches regularly reach 20 games and his three-set matches add length.
- Ratti's clay matches average 22.5 total games; Del Pino's average 17.2.
- Ratti's six recent clay matches averaged 25.5 games, with five over 19.5.
- Ratti's clay scorelines include six three-set matches in 14.
- Del Pino's clay matches average 17.2 total games in 11 matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino's clay matches have all ended in straight sets, and most Ratti wins are 2-0.
- Del Pino's 11 clay scorelines are all straight sets.
- Ratti's clay wins are 5-2 straight-set to three-set.
- Ratti has played six three-set matches in 14 clay matches.
- Del Pino has no three-set matches in 11 clay scorelines.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ratti has been much stronger in second sets on clay, winning nine of 14.
- Ratti is 9-5 in clay second sets; Del Pino is 3-8.
- Ratti averages 5.14 games won and 4.14 lost in clay second sets.
- Del Pino averages 3.55 games won and 4.91 lost in clay second sets.
- Ratti has won nine of 14 clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLucio RattiEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino has been slow starting on clay, with only three first-set wins in 11 matches.
- Ratti is 7-7 in clay first sets; Del Pino is 3-8.
- Del Pino averages 3.64 games won and 5.09 lost in clay first sets.
- Ratti opened with a 6-3 set against Rubini in Guayaquil.
- Ratti has two first-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLucio RattiEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ratti's most common clay scoreline is 2-0, and Del Pino has lost eight clay matches 0-2.
- Ratti's 2-0 scoreline appears five times in 14 clay matches.
- Del Pino's 0-2 scoreline appears eight times in 11 clay matches.
- Ratti has five 2-0 wins and two 2-1 wins on clay.
- Del Pino has no 2-1 scorelines in 11 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostLucio Ratti 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these clay sets have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Only three tiebreaks appear across the two 25-match clay samples.
- Ratti has two tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Del Pino has one tiebreak in 11 clay matches.
- Del Pino's clay matches average 17.2 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Lucio Ratti

7W 8L

6-3 6-4—Alessandro Rubini

6-4 4-6 6-2#255Genaro Alberto Olivieri

4-6 6-3 6-0#837Federico Zeballos

6-1 4-6 6-2#509Maximo Zeitune

6-4 7-5#883Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

6-7(3) 6-3 7-5#829Federico Coria

6-1 5-7 6-4#558Lukas Pokorny

7-6(8) 7-5#549Adrian Oetzbach

6-2 6-1—Frederic Schlossmann

6-3 6-1—Nick Lemke

6-2 6-0#451Sander Jong

6-1 6-0—Maximilian Todorov

6-4 6-4#251Dominic Stricker

6-2 4-6 7-5#363Ognjen Milic

6-4 7-5#431Khumoun Sultanov

Mateo Del Pino

6W 9L

5-7 6-3 1-0 ret.#689Wilson Leite

6-4 6-4#594Juan Sebastian Gomez

7-5 6-1#672Juan Sebastian Osorio

6-2 6-1—Manuel Mouilleron Salvo

6-1 6-2#328Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

7-5 6-4—Valentino Grippo

7-6(5) 6-2—Felipe De Dios

6-2 6-3#712Santiago De La Fuente

6-1 3-0 ret.—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-1 6-1—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

6-4 6-3—Leonel Cesar Castro

6-4 1-6 10-5—Nathan Cox

6-0 6-3—Gustavo Albieri

6-1 6-1—Marcco Iannoni

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LRLucio RattiRatti

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Mateo Del PinoPinoMP

Lucio Ratti carries the stronger recent form — Mateo Del Pino's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1565.1%—64.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1564.9%+11.4pp53.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1549.7%+9.6pp40.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/151.7+1.00.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.50.7 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1541.9%+2.9pp44.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1541.2%+9.4pp50.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1546.5%+1.4pp47.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1550.5%+3.6pp46.9%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

65.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15—64.4%

64.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+11.4pp53.5%

49.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+9.6pp40.1%

1.7Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+1.00.7

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.7 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

41.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.9pp44.8%

Pressure · 0–2

41.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+9.4pp50.6%

46.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+1.4pp47.9%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+3.6pp46.9%

Lucio Ratti

Mateo Del Pino

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mateo Del Pino

Mateo Del Pino

Mateo Del Pino

Mateo Del Pino 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Lucio Ratti

Mateo Del Pino

Stat Battle