ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinished

Lisa Zaar #276Sweden0Ayla Aksu #159Türkiye2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 16:35First RoundI.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAyla Aksu · 117 places

Lisa Zaar

Sweden

Zaar, 26, reached No. 289 on 13 July 2026 and was No. 303 on 31 August. Reliable public data reviewed does not establish a stated preferred surface, handedness, or height.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #289 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Ayla Aksu

Türkiye

Turkish right-hander, born 15 July 1996. Her WTA ranking rose from No. 305 in February 2026 to No. 202 in early August; no current injury or absence signal was returned in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #159
Peak ranking: #198 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 15:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking separates these two — Aksu is No.

159, Zaar No. 276 — and Aksu has 15 hard-court matches tracked at 8-7 while Zaar's recent work has come on clay. Aksu is the likelier winner. The 1.44 on her asks for roughly 69% and the record does not quite reach that, so no quoted price here is worth backing.

Context

A surface contrast and a ranking gap shape the match, but Zaar has no hard-court evidence in the window and there is no availability news, so conditions are mostly unknown.

Aksu is the higher-ranked player at No. 159 and arrives with the deeper hard-court record.
The win came inside an 8-7 hard-court record covering 15 matches from 20 July to 21 October 2026, and she took it in three sets after dropping the second 2-6. It is the standout result in that sample. Zaar, ranked 117 places lower at No. 276, has no hard-court matches tracked in the same window.
- 11 October 2026: Aksu beat Lucrezia Stefanini (ranked 107) 7-5 2-6 6-2 on hard court.
- The match is part of an 8-7 hard-court record across 15 tracked matches from 20 July to 21 October 2026.
That result cuts against the ranking gap for this first round: Aksu won seven games to Hewitt's twelve. One match is a thin basis for a trend, but it marks how far her level moved between the five wins of early October and her last outing. Zaar's own latest entry, on 13 October, was also a loss.
- 21 October 2026: Aksu lost 4-6 3-6 to Dalayna Hewitt (ranked 616) on indoor hard court, winning 7 games to 12.
Her second sets read very differently at 8-7, averaging 4.9 games against 5.0, and only two of those 15 matches contained a tiebreak. Five of her wins came in three sets, so she has recovered from slow starts, but she has regularly handed the first set away. The average match in that sample ran 23.4 games.
- 15 hard-court matches from 20 July to 21 October 2026: set one 5-10, 3.9 games won against 5.2 games lost.
- Set two in the same sample: 8-7, 4.9 games won against 5.0; two matches with a tiebreak; average 23.4 total games.
The sample is slightly smaller than Aksu's 15 hard-court matches and, unlike Aksu's, comes without any hard-court sets in this window; her aggregate serve and return figures were not available. That makes her current level harder to place on the surface being played. The ranking gap of 117 places carries most of the weight in assessing this first round.
- Last-15 window: 8 wins, 6 losses across 14 tracked matches, one retirement excluded, latest evidence 13 October 2026.
- Aggregate serve and return metrics were not available for this player.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ayla Aksu

1.44fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 69.4%

−2.4ppshort

Aksu has the higher ranking and a substantial hard-court sample with recent wins over top-120 opponents, while Zaar has no hard-court evidence in this window.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Aksu has the higher ranking and a substantial hard-court sample with recent wins over top-120 opponents, while Zaar has no hard-court evidence in this window.
- Aksu is ranked 159, 117 places above Zaar at 276.
- Aksu has 15 hard-court matches tracked at 8-7; Zaar has none on the current surface.
- Aksu's recent hard-court wins include Stefanini (No. 107) and Sakatsume (No. 115).
BetBugs · Match WinnerAyla AksuMarket price1.44Estimated chance67%

Lisa Zaar

9W 6L

6-1 7-5#247Matilde Jorge

7-6(1) 3-6 7-6(3)#250Joelle Steur

4-0 ret.#350Jessica Pieri

6-4 6-3#335Deborah Chiesa

3-6 6-4 6-3#587Sara Cakarevic

6-2 6-4#572Sofia Rocchetti

5-7 6-1 7-5#165Rebeka Masarova

3-6 6-3 7-6(6)#536Enola Chiesa

6-2 6-1—Arianna Ovarelli

6-3 6-3#494Elena Korokozidi

6-1 6-2—Nikol Nuneva

7-5 3-6 7-6(5)#417Katerina Tsygourova

6-3 5-7 7-5#342Rada Zolotareva

7-6(5) 6-1#277Georgia Pedone

6-2 4-6 6-1#265Sofya Lansere

Ayla Aksu

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#616Dalayna Hewitt

7-5 2-6 6-2#107Lucrezia Stefanini

7-5 6-3#115Himeno Sakatsume

3-6 6-3 6-4#209Fiona Crawley

3-6 6-3 6-3#232Alicia Dudeney

6-3 6-2#164Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-3#190Elena Pridankina

6-1 5-7 6-2#177Han Shi

6-1 7-6(3)#278Yuki Naito

4-6 7-5 7-5#263Elena Malygina

6-2 6-3#107Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 7-5#469Alana Smith

2-6 7-6(4) 6-2#673Allegra Korpanec Davies

6-3 6-2#40Daria Snigur

2-6 6-3 6-4#163Sofia Costoulas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LZLisa ZaarZaar

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Ayla AksuAksuAA

Lisa Zaar carries the stronger recent form — Ayla Aksu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In79.6%+16.5pp63.1%

1st Serve Won56.9%+2.2pp59.1%

2nd Serve Won40.1%+7.9pp48.0%

Aces / Match0.0+1.01.0

Double Faults / Match3.00.5 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.0%+5.1pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.2%+6.8pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved48.1%+3.7pp51.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.7pp50.0%

Serve · 2–3

79.6%1st Serve In+16.5pp63.1%

56.9%1st Serve Won+2.2pp59.1%

40.1%2nd Serve Won+7.9pp48.0%

0.0Aces / Match+1.01.0

3.0Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

50.0%Return Pts Won+5.1pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

51.2%Break Pts Converted+6.8pp44.4%

48.1%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp51.8%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.0%