United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Karl Poling #452United States2Patrick Zahraj #524Germany0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions1–420%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKarl Poling · 72 places

Karl Poling

United States

Poling is a left-handed American player, born 4 August 1999. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 487; no reliable current injury, comeback, or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #452
Peak ranking: #487
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Patrick Zahraj

Germany

German player born 17 July 1999. Public ranking records place his singles career high at No. 240 in October 2025; no reliable preferred-surface profile was found.

Current ranking: #524
Peak ranking: #240 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Poling and Zahraj meet for a main-draw place in Sioux Falls, a month after Zahraj came from a set down to win their September meeting.

Zahraj's stronger hard-court return numbers make him the narrow favourite, though a 62.9% first-serve rate and 3.9 double faults per hard-court match keep Poling in it. Zahraj at 1.8 asks for more than his edge supports, and Poling at 1.9 is no better; neither price is worth taking.

Context

Zahraj has already beaten Poling once this season and did it after losing the opening set.
That comeback is the freshest evidence between the two and it favours Zahraj, who took 15 games to Poling's 11. It does not settle much: Poling won the opening set and has taken 8 of his 15 first sets on hard, while Zahraj has won 6 of his 14. One meeting a month ago is a thin base, but it is the only head-to-head in the record.
- 27 September 2026, indoor hard, best-of-3: Zahraj lost the first set 3-6 to Poling, then won 6-3 6-2.
- Games in the match: Zahraj 15, Poling 11; no retirement.
- It is the only completed meeting between the two in the supplied record.
Eleven of those 14 scorelines were straight sets, five 2-0 wins and six 0-2 losses, so his matches usually end without a deciding set. Poling's hard-court sample has averaged 25.1 games and produced a tiebreak in 7 of 15 matches, which cuts the other way. Two months is a small window, and the contrast is a lean rather than a pattern.
- 14 completed hard-court matches tracked, 25 August to 25 October 2026: 21.6 total games per match on average.
- Scorelines: five 2-0 wins, six 0-2 losses and three 2-1 wins, so 11 of 14 finished in straight sets.
- Only 2 of the 14 matches contained a tiebreak, one in the first set and one in the second.
That is a serve that starts points rather than ending them: 811 first serves in across 15 matches produced 38 aces. Zahraj's hard-court first-serve rate is lower at 62.9%, so he is the one who will begin more points on a second serve. Against Zahraj's 38.6% return-points-won rate on hard, the percentage alone will not decide much.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked: 811 of 1,131 first serves in, or 71.7%.
- 38 aces and 32 double faults across those 15 matches, 2.5 and 2.1 per match.
- First-serve points won 66.5% (539/811); second-serve points won 56.6% (181/320).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Patrick Zahraj

1.80fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 55.6%

−1.6ppshort

Zahraj's stronger return numbers and recent head-to-head win make him a narrow favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Zahraj's stronger return numbers and recent head-to-head win make him a narrow favourite.
- Zahraj is 8-6 on hard in his current-surface sample, while Poling is 7-8.
- Zahraj beat Poling 3-6 6-3 6-2 in their recent completed meeting.
- Zahraj's hard-court return-points-won rate is 38.6%, above Poling's 36.3%.
- Zahraj's 69.8% first-serve points won on hard is above Poling's 66.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick ZahrajEstimated chance54%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zahraj's shorter matches and Poling's recent totals make under 23.5 the more likely side.
- Zahraj's hard-court matches average 21.6 total games, below the 23.5 line.
- Zahraj's 14 hard-court scorelines include 11 straight-set matches.
- Poling's recent six completed matches averaged 22.3 total games.
- Poling's hard-court average is 25.1 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poling's first-set record and higher first-serve rate make him the slightly stronger starter.
- Poling has won 8 of 15 first sets on hard; Zahraj has won 6 of 14.
- Poling's 71.7% first-serve rate is the highest in the match.
- Poling won the first set 6-3 in the recent head-to-head.
- Zahraj has lost 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKarl PolingEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zahraj's low tiebreak rate and the recent head-to-head point to no tiebreak.
- Zahraj has had a tiebreak in only 2 of 14 hard-court matches.
- The recent head-to-head between these players had no tiebreak.
- Zahraj's set1 and set2 tiebreak counts are 1 and 1.
- Poling has had a tiebreak in 7 of 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average sits below 6.5, making under the more likely side.
- Poling averages 2.5 aces per match; Zahraj averages 3.8, combining to 6.3.
- Poling has 38 aces in 15 hard-court matches.
- Zahraj has 53 aces in 14 hard-court matches.
- Poling's 71.7% first-serve rate has produced only 2.5 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is under 6.5, with Poling's low rate balancing Zahraj's.
- Poling averages 2.1 double faults per match, limiting the combined total.
- Zahraj's hard-court average is 3.9, combining to about 6.0.
- Zahraj has 55 double faults in 14 hard-court matches.
- Poling has 32 double faults in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Karl Poling

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#889Maxwell Exsted

6-4 6-4#696Alex Rybakov

6-3 6-1—Iker Urribarrens Ramirez

6-4 6-3#482Aidan Mchugh

3-6 6-3 6-2#524Patrick Zahraj

6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4)#69Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-6(8)#348Moez Echargui

6-2 6-1#527Yanis Ghazouani Durand

7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#824Nikola Slavic

6-4 6-3#685Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-3 6-2#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)—Nikita Filin

7-6(1) 6-4#866Axel Nefve

3-6 7-6(7) 6-1#685Thomas Fancutt

Patrick Zahraj

8W 7L

7-6(1) 7-6(4)#781Govind Nanda

6-3 6-2#573Kaylan Bigun

6-3 6-4#589Shunsuke Mitsui

7-5 6-3#812Alexandre Reco

3-6 6-3 6-2#452Karl Poling

6-2 7-5#268Murphy Cassone

4-6 7-5 7-6(9)#354Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-4#647Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-3#763Joshua Sheehy

7-5 6-3#650Samir Banerjee

6-2 6-4—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 5-7 6-0—Sven Corbinais

6-2 6-1—Matisse Martin

6-3 6-2#693Patrick Brady

7-6(4) 6-1#195Mika Brunold

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KPKarl PolingPoling

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Patrick ZahrajZahrajPZ

Patrick Zahraj carries the stronger recent form — Karl Poling's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In71.7%+8.6pp63.1%

1st Serve Won66.5%+2.1pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won56.6%+6.2pp50.4%

Aces / Match2.5+1.23.7

Double Faults / Match2.12.1 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+2.0pp38.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.0%+7.1pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved54.7%+5.5pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.9%—49.9%

Serve · 3–2

71.7%1st Serve In+8.6pp63.1%

66.5%1st Serve Won+2.1pp68.6%

56.6%2nd Serve Won+6.2pp50.4%

2.5Aces / Match+1.23.7

2.1Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+2.0pp38.3%

Pressure · 0–2

34.0%Break Pts Converted+7.1pp41.1%

54.7%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.9%Total Pts Won—49.9%