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Predictions graded

Han Shi #177China2Alevtina Ibragimova #175Russia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Mon 26 Oct 2026, 06:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlevtina Ibragimova · 2 places

Han Shi

China

Chinese right-hander ranked No. 242. Her recent record is built almost entirely on hard courts, with 10 wins in her last 13 hard-court matches tracked. She reached the Ankara Open round of 16 with a 6-1, 6-1 opening win over Alya Naz Altinel.

Current ranking: #177
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Alevtina Ibragimova

Russia

Public search evidence identifies Ibragimova as 21. No reliable source in the requested search set established her career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #175
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 14:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Separated by two ranking places, Shi and Ibragimova meet with Shi the stronger recent hard-court winner and Ibragimova the sharper starter.

Shi is the slightly likelier winner, but her 1.4 price asks far too much; Ibragimova at 2.9 to win the match and 2.5 to take the first set are the prices that offer something.

Context

The qualifying route gives Ibragimova immediate match exposure at this event and includes five sets across two days. It also places her on a shorter turnaround than Shi, whose latest listed match was in Ningbo on 19 October. Neither qualifying report identifies a physical issue or a court-condition comment, so the available record establishes workload rather than its effect on her condition.
- Ibragimova completed two qualifying matches in Guangzhou on 24 and, including a three-set opening win.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:50 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 25 Oct 2026
The first set has been Shi's weakest phase: nine losses in 14, and four of those sets ran to a tiebreak. Her response has been consistent, winning the second set nine times, which is why her matches average 2.43 sets and 23.4 games. Ibragimova has taken five of ten first sets on hard, so the opener is where the edge sits against Shi, not the finish.
- Shi's 14 completed hard-court matches, 23 September to 19 October 2026: five first-set wins, nine losses, four first-set tiebreaks.
- Same span: nine second-set wins, five losses, one second-set tiebreak.
- Total games average 23.4 and total sets average 2.43 across those 14 matches.
Eala is the best-ranked opponent in Shi's supplied record, and the win came after dropping the first set, the pattern behind her 5-9 first-set record. It is a single result, and her hard-court losses to Cirstea and Fernandez both came in straight sets, so the top-20 win should not be read as a rising level. What it does show is that her three-set matches have gone her way rather than simply draining her.
- 12 October 2026: Shi beat Alexandra Eala (No. 20) 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 on hard courts.
She has split first sets 5-5 and won six of ten second sets, with second sets averaging 8.6 games, so her sets tend to close without extra games. Shi's hard-court matches average 23.4 games and include five matches with a tiebreak, a clear contrast in how long the two players' sets last. The sample is ten matches for Ibragimova against 14 for Shi, small enough that one long match would shift the averages.
- Ibragimova's ten completed hard-court matches, 24 August to 25 October 2026, average 21.3 total games and 2.3 sets.
- Only one of those ten matches contained a tiebreak.
- Second sets in that span average 8.6 total games; she has won six of ten.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Han has faced stronger recent opposition and won more often against top-100 players, so she is slightly more likely to win.
- Han is 9-5 on hard courts in her last 14 completed matches.
- Her recent wins include Eala (#20), Stearns (#37), Rakhimova (#67) and Korneeva (#80).
- Ibragimova is 6-4 on hard courts and lost recent matches to Okamura (#246) and Yeon Woo Ku (#174).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ibragimova often finishes second sets with a break and fewer games.
- Ibragimova's second sets average 8.6 total games.
- She has no second-set tiebreaks in 10 matches.
- Han's second sets average 9.7 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Han's matches tend to run long, and a close opening round could add games.
- Han's hard-court matches average 23.4 total games.
- Ibragimova's hard-court matches average 21.3 total games.
- Han has played 6 three-set matches in 14.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets often reach at least ten games.
- Han's first sets average 9.9 total games.
- Ibragimova's first sets average 9.6 total games.
- Han has played 4 first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Han is notably stronger in the second set and often raises her level after a slow start.
- Han has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard courts.
- She won the second set in both of her recent three-set victories.
- Ibragimova has won 6 of 10 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome for both players.
- Han's hard-court matches average 2.43 sets.
- Ibragimova's hard-court matches average 2.3 sets.
- 15 of their combined 24 hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Ibragimova has been the more reliable starter on hard courts.
- Ibragimova has won 5 of 10 first sets on hard courts.
- Han has won only 5 of 14 first sets on hard courts.
- Ibragimova's first-set games average is 4.7 won and 4.9 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent matches have avoided tiebreaks.
- Ibragimova has played only 1 tiebreak in 10 hard-court matches.
- Han has played 5 tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- They have combined for 6 tiebreaks in 24 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Han Shi

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#17Sorana Cirstea

7-6(4) 6-0#80Alina Korneeva

6-4 0-1 ret.#47Magdalena Frech

6-3 6-4#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

4-6 6-3 6-3#20Alexandra Eala

7-6(2) 6-1#67Kamilla Rakhimova

2-6 7-5 6-4#37Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-3#85Renata Zarazua

6-4 7-6(5)#375Yidi Yang

3-6 6-4 6-4#429Chengyiyi Yuan

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2#22Qinwen Zheng

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#113Elvina Kalieva

6-0 6-2#761Tereza Mihalikova

6-3 6-4#231Berfu Cengiz

6-1 5-7 6-2#162Ayla Aksu

Alevtina Ibragimova

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#142Polina Iatcenko

3-6 6-2 6-4#306Rina Saigo

6-2 6-3#134Rebecca Sramkova

6-7(7) 6-1 6-3#246Kyoka Okamura

3-6 6-4 7-5#274Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-3 6-2#174Yeon Woo Ku

7-5 6-2#262Sara Saito

6-3 6-2#306Rina Saigo

7-5 6-4#197Rositsa Dencheva

4-6 6-2 6-3#217Alicia Herrero Linana

6-2 6-3#272Aurora Zantedeschi

7-5 6-1#139Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 7-6(2)#236Julie Struplova

6-4 6-3#338Mariam Bolkvadze

6-2 6-4#134Rebecca Sramkova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HSHan ShiShi

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Alevtina IbragimovaIbragimovaAI

Alevtina Ibragimova carries the stronger recent form — Han Shi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.9%+11.9pp70.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1567.4%+12.1pp55.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.3%+1.2pp47.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.7+1.42.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.80.7 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1543.8%+5.3pp49.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.7%+5.6pp46.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.6%—53.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.0%—51.1%

Serve · 2–3

58.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+11.9pp70.8%

67.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+12.1pp55.3%

46.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp47.5%

3.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.42.3

3.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

43.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp49.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

40.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.6pp46.3%

53.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—53.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.1%

Han Shi

Alevtina Ibragimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alevtina Ibragimova

Over 22.5

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Han Shi

Alevtina Ibragimova

Stat Battle