EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorFinishedFeatured

Filip Misolic #495Austria0Juan Alejandro Hernandez #507Mexico2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 16:00Q3Clay

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Misolic · 12 places

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #495
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

Mexican right-hander born 23 June 1999. Public profile sources record a singles career high of No. 409 in January 2026; no verified current injury or comeback context was found.

Current ranking: #507
Peak ranking: #409 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players ranked 495 and 507 meet in the final qualifying round on clay, and the gap is thin: Misolic owns the better clay set record and recent form, while Hernandez has won seven of ten opening sets.

Misolic is the likelier winner, but 1.08 on him leaves nothing to take. The prices that do offer something are Hernandez at 6.5 for the match and 4.75 to win the second set.

Context

No availability or injury news and no sourced coverage beyond the dated clay records, so conditions do not change the read on this qualifying match.

Misolic's clay sample points to short matches, which shapes how the match is likely to be framed.
His average match in that 13-match sample lasted 2.31 sets and 20.0 total games. Hernandez's 10 clay matches averaged 2.5 sets and 23.5 games, five of them going to a decider. The short-match pattern belongs to Misolic, though four of his 13 still went the distance, so it is a lean rather than a habit.
- Misolic clay sample, 13 completed best-of-3 matches from 8 Sep to 25 Oct 2026: scorelines of 7 wins 2-0, 1 win 2-1, 3 losses 1-2 and 2 losses 0-2.
- Average clay match length for Misolic: 2.31 sets and 20.0 total games.
It is the freshest result in either player's record and the cleanest scoreline.
Baquero carries no ranking in the record, so the one-game concession says more about Misolic's sharpness than about the level he beat. It is also his most recent completed match, dated 25 October, which leaves little time between that win and this round. The scoreline should be read with the opponent in mind.
- Misolic def. Martin Baquero 6-0 6-1 on 25 Oct 2026, 12 games to 1, in a completed best-of-3 clay match.
- Opponent ranking: not listed.
It is the best opponent in the listed record, and the scoreline was competitive.
Heide is the highest-ranked opponent among Hernandez's six most recent listed matches, and Hernandez took the second set 6-3 before losing the third. It shows he can hold a set against a player far above his own ranking of 507. One result does not establish a level, and his clay sample covers only 10 matches.
- Hernandez lost to Gustavo Heide (ranked 114) 4-6 6-3 3-6 on 20 Oct 2026, games 13-15.
- Completed best-of-3 clay match, no retirement.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic has the better clay set record and stronger recent results, though the ranking gap is minimal.
- Clay last 15: Misolic 8-5, Hernandez 6-4.
- Clay set-two record: Misolic 10-3, Hernandez 6-4.
- Last six matches: Misolic 5-1, Hernandez 3-3.
- Rankings: Misolic 495, Hernandez 507.
BetBugs · Match WinnerFilip MisolicEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's shorter clay matches and frequent straight-set wins point to a lower total.
- Misolic clay matches average 20.0 total games.
- Hernandez clay matches average 23.5 total games.
- Seven of Misolic's 13 clay matches were 2-0 wins.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak counts and Misolic's average of nine first-set games support under 9.5.
- Set-one games average: Misolic 9.0, Hernandez 9.6.
- Misolic has 1 tiebreak in 13 clay set ones.
- Hernandez has 1 tiebreak in 10 clay set ones.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's straight-set frequency makes under 2.5 slightly more likely than a deciding set.
- Misolic 9 of 13 clay matches ended in straight sets.
- Hernandez 5 of 10 clay matches ended in straight sets.
- Misolic's clay matches average 2.31 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's second-set record is clearly stronger in the clay sample.
- Clay set-two record: Misolic 10-3, Hernandez 6-4.
- Misolic set-two games average: 5.3 won, 2.9 lost.
- Misolic has won more clay matches in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerFilip MisolicEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's overall clay set-one record and recent form give him a narrow first-set edge.
- Clay set-one record: Misolic 8-5, Hernandez 7-3.
- Recent set-one record: Misolic 4-2, Hernandez 3-3 in last six.
- Misolic is the slight match winner with 58%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerFilip MisolicEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare across both players' clay samples.
- Combined tiebreak matches: 3 in 23 clay matches.
- Misolic: 2 tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Hernandez: 1 tiebreak in 10 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance76%

Previous match context available

Filip Misolic

8W 7L

6-0 6-1—Martin Baquero

6-2 6-1#288Michele Ribecai

4-6 6-3 6-3#409Izan Almazan Valiente

7-6(5) 6-1#227Felix Gill

6-3 6-1#496Daniel Siniakov

6-2 6-2#844Dominik Recek

6-1 6-2#343Patrick Schoen

6-2 6-0—Tiago Esculcas

6-4 3-1 ret.#616Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#491Sebastian Gima

7-5 6-1#661Imanol Lopez Morillo

4-6 7-5 6-4#678Matyas Cerny

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#195Mika Brunold

6-4 6-0#292Henri Squire

6-4 6-3 7-5#21Francisco Cerundolo

Juan Alejandro Hernandez

9W 6L

6-1 1-0 ret.#742Jose Pereira

6-4 3-6 6-3#114Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#706Franco Ribero

7-5 6-4#707Matteo Covato

6-2 4-6 6-3#672Juan Sebastian Osorio

6-3 4-6 6-3—Ivan Dreycopp

6-2 2-6 6-4—Felipe De Dios

6-4 6-2—Gray Voelzke

6-7(3) 6-4 7-6(6)#656Tristan Mccormick

6-2 6-2—Miles Clark

6-4 6-2—Mario Andre Galarraga

7-6(2) 6-4#464Adrian Boitan

6-4 1-6 6-3#548Tuncay Duran

6-2 6-4#807Cem Ilkel

6-7(5) 6-3 2-0 ret.#419Marek Gengel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilip MisolicMisolic

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Juan Alejandro HernandezHernandezJH

Filip Misolic carries the stronger recent form — Juan Alejandro Hernandez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In53.5%+9.5pp63.0%

1st Serve Won65.5%+7.4pp72.9%

2nd Serve Won48.2%+1.3pp46.9%

Aces / Match2.7+0.42.3

Double Faults / Match3.31.0 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.4%+5.7pp39.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.4%—44.8%

Break Pts Saved58.1%+0.9pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.4%—51.4%

Serve · 3–2

53.5%1st Serve In+9.5pp63.0%

65.5%1st Serve Won+7.4pp72.9%

48.2%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp46.9%

2.7Aces / Match+0.42.3

3.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

45.4%Return Pts Won+5.7pp39.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

44.4%Break Pts Converted—44.8%

58.1%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.4%Total Pts Won—51.4%