United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Benjamin Willwerth #848United States2Duncan Chan #472Canada0

Sets 7-6 · 7-5Mon 26 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions5–183%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDuncan Chan · 376 places

Benjamin Willwerth

United States

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #848
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Duncan Chan

Canada

Canadian right-hander, born 29 July 2005. Public player databases list a singles career-high of No. 601 in July 2026 and show his recorded 2026 matches on hard courts.

Current ranking: #472
Peak ranking: #601 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:11 · Europe/Bucharest

A ranking gap and a form gap point in opposite directions: Chan sits at No. 472, but Willwerth has the better hard-court stretch, taking 10 of 14 opening sets and winning all nine of his tracked matches in straight sets.

Willwerth looks the likelier winner, and at 2.4 for the match and 2.3 for the first set the prices offer something. Chan's 1.5 needs more than his 7-8 hard-court record supports.

Context

Willwerth has not dropped a set in any of his nine hard-court wins in the tracked window, so a two-set finish is his likely route. Chan has five 0-2 losses in 15 matches, which supports that shape. The caveat is that Chan's own matches run much longer, and Willwerth arrives off a straight-set loss on 22 October, so a quick finish is a pattern rather than a guarantee.
- All nine of Willwerth's wins in a 14-match hard-court sample (18 Aug-22 Oct 2026) finished 2-0.
- His 14 completed hard-court matches averaged 2.14 sets.
- His most recent completed match was a 5-12 straight-set loss to Jack Secord on 22 October 2026.
This identifies the fixture as a qualifying-round match in Sioux Falls . That places both players in the same entry-stage setting rather than a main-draw round. No court-condition, availability, or unequal-workload information is available to add a playing implication.
- The qualifying first-round match is listed for 18:30 at Sioux Falls Ford Lincoln Stadium.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:09 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The listing places Chan 376 ranking positions above Willwerth at the time of this match. It provides basic competitive context for a qualifying fixture, but it does not establish current fitness, court suitability, or the circumstances behind either ranking.
- Chan is listed at No. 472 and Willwerth at No. 848.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:09 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
Chan took only 5 of 15 first sets in that window, so much of his match length comes from chasing rather than leading.
Chan's matches in the tracked window have consistently carried past the 22-game mark, and his five three-set wins show he can extend a contest after losing the opener. That makes a long match plausible even if Willwerth starts well. Willwerth's own 20.1-game average is the counterweight.
- Chan's 15 hard-court matches from 9 July to 19 October 2026 averaged 24.7 total games.
- Six of those 15 matches contained at least one tiebreak.
- Five of his seven wins were three-setters, against five 0-2 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Willwerth has the better hard-court results and stronger set-by-set records in the available matches, though the ranking gap keeps this close.
- Willwerth is 9-5 on hard in the tracked sample, with a 10-4 first-set record and a 10-4 second-set record.
- Chan is 7-8 on hard and has won only 5 of 15 first sets in the same format.
- Chan's hard-court metrics show 49.2% total points won and 47.6% games won over 15 matches.
- Chan is ranked 472, while Willwerth is ranked 848.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenjamin WillwerthEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's matches tend to run long, and a competitive match with him involved is likely to push past this line.
- Chan's hard matches average 24.7 total games.
- Chan has six hard-court matches with at least one tiebreak.
- Willwerth's hard matches average 20.1 total games.
- Chan's five 2-1 wins point to longer matches when he is competitive.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Willwerth has started matches much more strongly than Chan in the available hard-court evidence.
- Willwerth won 10 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Chan won 5 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Willwerth's first-set games average is 5.36 won to 3.86 lost.
- Chan's first-set games average is 4.47 won to 5.60 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBenjamin WillwerthEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Willwerth's wins have been consistently short, and Chan often loses in straight sets, making a two-set finish more likely.
- Willwerth's hard matches average 2.14 sets.
- All nine of Willwerth's hard-court wins in the sample were 2-0.
- Chan has five 0-2 losses and only two 2-0 wins in 15 hard matches.
- Willwerth's latest completed hard match was a straight-set loss.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Willwerth's matches have generally stayed away from tiebreaks and often finish in two sets.
- Willwerth had tiebreaks in only 2 of 14 hard matches.
- Nine of Willwerth's 14 hard matches were 2-0.
- Chan had no tiebreak in 9 of 15 hard matches.
- Willwerth's hard matches average 20.1 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Benjamin Willwerth

9W 6L

6-2 6-3—Jack Secord

6-3 6-3#766Noah Zamora

6-3 6-2#781Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-4 6-2#888Micah Braswell

6-3 7-6(6)#436Tyler Zink

6-4 1-0 ret.—Hugo Coquelin

6-1 6-4#732Kasra Rahmani

6-4 6-4—Jacopo Bilardo

6-4 6-4—Damien Salvestre

6-0 7-5—Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

6-3 6-3#472Cesar Bouchelaghem

7-6(10) 6-4#765Maxence Bertimon

6-4 2-6 6-4#336Aidan Mayo

6-4 6-4—John Chin

3-6 6-2 6-2#199Gonzalo Bueno

Duncan Chan

7W 8L

4-6 6-1 6-4#542Gavin Young

7-6(4) 2-6 6-3#684Roger Pascual Ferra

6-2 6-4#218Colton Smith

6-3 6-2#776Keaton Hance

6-7(11) 6-3 7-6(4)—Denis Petak

6-3 6-2#179Taro Daniel

6-3 1-6 7-6(3)#50Thiago Agustin Tirante

2-6 7-5 6-3#93Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

6-2 2-6 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#259James McCabe

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#472Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 6-4#434Alafia Ayeni

6-4 6-2#319Daniel Milavsky

7-6(5) 6-3#351Timo Legout

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BWBenjamin WillwerthWillwerth

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Duncan ChanChanDC

Benjamin Willwerth carries the stronger recent form — Duncan Chan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.7%+4.1pp60.6%

1st Serve Won71.7%+4.1pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won46.9%+3.1pp43.8%

Aces / Match2.1+1.73.8

Double Faults / Match1.72.6 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.0%—40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.8%+3.4pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved67.1%+13.3pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.0%+2.8pp49.2%

Serve · 4–1

64.7%1st Serve In+4.1pp60.6%

71.7%1st Serve Won+4.1pp67.6%

46.9%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp43.8%

2.1Aces / Match+1.73.8

1.7Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.0%Return Pts Won—40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

36.8%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp40.2%

67.1%Break Pts Saved+13.3pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

52.0%Total Pts Won+2.8pp49.2%