South KoreaSeoul - South KoreaFinished

Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #361Russia2Woobin Shin #898South Korea1

Sets 6-0 · 4-6 · 6-3Mon 26 Oct 2026, 02:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlibek Kachmazov · 537 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #361
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Woobin Shin

South Korea

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #898
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov's 14-1 hard-court run and 29 sets from 34 sit against Shin's 6-7 record, making Kachmazov, ranked 361 to Shin's 898, the clear favourite in this Seoul qualifying round, most likely in straight sets.

The quotes already assume it: 1.12 to win the match, 1.18 for the first set, 1.18 for the second, 1.40 for a 2-0 win. None of those four is worth backing.

Context

Kachmazov has dropped only five sets across that 15-match stretch.
A 29-of-34 set record means opponents rarely extend Kachmazov, which points to a short match here. Shin has gone to a deciding set in six of his 13 recent matches, so a quick finish is a likelihood rather than a certainty.
- Set scores in the 15-match sample: 2-0 in 11, 2-1 in three, 1-2 in one.
- 29 of 34 sets won (85.3%) between 20 Sep and 25 Oct 2026.
- Matches in that window averaged 22.3 total games.
Shin's first sets have been almost dead level on games, 4.77 to 4.69.
Shin tends to be behind early and better later, which matters against an opponent who has taken the opening set in 12 of his last 15. If Shin survives the first set the match lengthens; the cost is that he rarely leads.
- First sets: 5 wins, 8 losses across 13 completed hard-court matches (28 Oct 2025 – 25 Oct 2026).
- Second sets: 7 wins, 6 losses in the same sample.
- Two retirements excluded from the 13-match set sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alibek Kachmazov

1.12fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 89.3%

−11.3ppshort

Kachmazov has far stronger recent results and a much higher ranking than Shin.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alibek Kachmazov

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Kachmazov's serve and first-set record point to an early lead.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alibek Kachmazov

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.7%

−12.7ppshort

Kachmazov's second-set record is the strongest part of his recent form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Kachmazov has far stronger recent results and a much higher ranking than Shin.
- Kachmazov is ranked 361, well above Shin's 898.
- Kachmazov is 14-1 in his last 15 completed hard-court matches.
- Kachmazov has won 29 of 34 sets in that sample.
- Shin is 6-7 in his last 13 completed hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been closely contested for both players by game count.
- Kachmazov's second sets average 9.9 total games.
- Shin's second sets average 9.8 total games.
- Kachmazov has three second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Shin has three second-set tiebreaks in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's many straight-set wins point to a shorter match.
- Kachmazov has won 2-0 in 11 of 15 recent matches.
- Kachmazov's recent matches average 22.3 total games.
- Shin's recent matches average 24.3 total games.
- Shin has played three sets in 6 of 13 recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have regularly reached ten games.
- Kachmazov's first sets average 9.8 total games.
- Shin's first sets average 9.5 total games.
- Kachmazov has four first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Shin has two first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Kachmazov's serve and first-set record point to an early lead.
- Kachmazov has won the first set in 12 of 15 recent matches.
- Shin has lost the first set in 8 of 13 recent matches.
- Kachmazov wins 78.4% of first-serve points.
- Shin won the opening set in four of his last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Kachmazov's second-set record is the strongest part of his recent form.
- Kachmazov has won 14 of 15 second sets.
- Kachmazov has won 29 of 34 sets overall.
- Shin has won 7 of 13 second sets.
- Shin has won five of his last six second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov has usually avoided a third set.
- Kachmazov has won 2-0 in 11 of 15 recent matches.
- Shin has finished 7 of 13 matches in straight sets.
- Kachmazov has won 29 of 34 sets.
- Shin has played six three-set matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Kachmazov's frequent straight-set wins support a 2-0 scoreline.
- Kachmazov has won 2-0 in 11 of 15 recent matches.
- Kachmazov has won 29 of 34 sets.
- Shin has lost 0-2 in 4 of 13 matches.
- Kachmazov's first-set record is 12-3.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAlibek Kachmazov 2-0Estimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's straight-set wins have often avoided tiebreaks.
- Kachmazov has had a tiebreak in 6 of 15 recent matches.
- Shin has had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 recent matches.
- Kachmazov has won 2-0 in 11 of 15 matches.
- Shin has finished 7 of 13 matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance57%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

14W 1L

4-6 6-3 6-1#729Dong Ju Kim

6-7(4) 7-5 6-3#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

4-6 7-6(7) 7-6(6)#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-6(4) 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#296Fajing Sun

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#462Evan Zhu

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#264Charles Broom

6-1 6-1#851Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#747Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#741Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#595Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

6-3 6-4#752Yunseong Chung

Woobin Shin

7W 8L

6-0 6-7(3) 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(1)#752Yunseong Chung

6-3 6-0#882Duckhee Lee

6-4 5-7 7-5#478Keisuke Saitoh

7-6(5) 1-0 ret.#1858Geun Jun Kim

6-4 7-6(5)—Seongwoo Cho

6-2 6-3—Juchan Hwang

6-2 6-1#799Renta Tokuda

6-3 6-3#353Tung-Lin Wu

2-6 7-6(5) 6-4#871Theodore Dean

4-6 6-3 6-4—Suk Hyun Choo

6-7(2) 6-3 7-5—Hugo Hashimoto

6-3 6-3#668Michael Vrbensky

6-4 6-2#277Marc-Andrea Huesler

5-0 ret.#897Xiaofei Wang

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Woobin ShinShinWS

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Woobin Shin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.4%+4.7pp61.1%

1st Serve Won78.4%+10.0pp68.4%

2nd Serve Won56.7%+10.2pp46.5%

Aces / Match9.9+5.44.5

Double Faults / Match2.1—2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.3%—41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.9%+2.6pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved75.4%+21.9pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.7%+4.5pp50.2%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

56.4%1st Serve In+4.7pp61.1%

78.4%1st Serve Won+10.0pp68.4%

56.7%2nd Serve Won+10.2pp46.5%

9.9Aces / Match+5.44.5

2.1Double Faults / Match—2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.3%Return Pts Won—41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.9%Break Pts Converted+2.6pp45.5%

75.4%Break Pts Saved+21.9pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

54.7%Total Pts Won+4.5pp50.2%

Alibek Kachmazov

Woobin Shin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alibek Kachmazov

Woobin Shin

Stat Battle