South KoreaSeoul - South KoreaFinished

Predictions graded

Yunseong Chung #756South Korea2Alexander Donski #5170

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Sun 25 Oct 2026, 03:45 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–456%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexander Donski · 239 places

Yunseong Chung

South Korea

Listed as a clay-preferring right-hander with a two-handed backhand, standing 178 cm.

Current ranking: #756
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Alexander Donski

Right-hander with a two-handed backhand, ranked No. 523 in singles and listed at 188 cm. He entered the 2026 US Open doubles draw as an alternate alongside Jan Choinski and the pair won their opening match in New York.

Current ranking: #517
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Donski is the marginal favourite on ranking, 517 to Chung's 756, but Chung has won nine of twelve first sets on hard while Donski has taken six of eight second sets.

That split makes the opening set the clearest sporting lean. No priced selection was put forward for this qualifying round, so there is nothing at a price to back.

Context

The serve numbers explain his profile indoors: at 78.7% of first-serve points won with 10.3 aces a match, he should hold for long stretches. The counterweight sits in the same eight-match sample, where he won only 48.7% of games and 49.8% of points. That is why a level 4-4 record sits behind some imposing serve figures.
- Over eight hard-court matches (2 Aug-11 Oct 2026), Donski landed 55.7% of first serves (357 of 641) and won 78.7% of first-serve points (281 of 357).
- He averaged 10.3 aces and 4.6 double faults per match, with three tiebreaks in eight matches and 23.4 total games per match.
- In the same sample he won 48.7% of games (91 of 187) and 49.8% of points (603 of 1211), for a 4-4 record.
Chung's advantage is concentrated in the opening set, where he averaged 5.33 games won against 3.58 lost. The second set is much closer at 5.08 against 4.33, which keeps the overall match read uncertain. Three retirements were excluded, so this is a twelve-match base of completed matches only.
- Chung's hard-court set evidence covers 12 completed matches from 19 Aug to 23 Sep 2026, with three retirements excluded.
- He won 9 of 12 first sets (5.33 games won, 3.58 lost per set) and 7 of 12 second sets (5.08 won, 4.33 lost).
- His scorelines were seven 2-0 wins, three 0-2 defeats and one win and one defeat in three sets; none of the twelve matches featured a tiebreak.
This is the only recorded previous meeting between the players and supplies a direct historical reference for the fixture. The score shows Chung won in straight sets at M25 level in Monastir. It is several seasons old and does not establish their current condition or surface-specific expectation in Seoul.
- Their recorded 2022 Monastir M25 first-round meeting ended 6-4, 6-2 to Chung.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 00:28 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple head-to-head recorden.tennistemple.com · 1 Jan 2022

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's higher ranking and stronger opposition make him a slight favourite despite a modest hard-court record.
- Donski is ranked 517, above Chung at 756.
- Donski has played recent hard-court opponents ranked 156-323.
- Donski's current-surface first-serve points won is 78.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlexander DonskiEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's longer service games and tiebreak tendency point to a total just above the line.
- Donski's hard-court matches average 23.4 total games.
- Chung's hard-court matches average 19.8 total games.
- Donski has three tiebreaks in eight hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set averages sit near the line, with Donski's serve adding a slight push over.
- Donski's second sets average 9.6 total games on hard.
- Chung's second sets average 9.4 total games on hard.
- Donski has one second-set tiebreak in eight hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's longer opening sets lift the chance of 10 or more games.
- Donski's first sets average 10.4 total games on hard.
- Chung's first sets average 8.9 total games on hard.
- Donski has one first-set tiebreak in eight hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court results lean toward straight-set finishes.
- Chung's last 12 hard-court matches include 10 straight-set results.
- Donski's last eight hard-court matches include five straight-set results.
- Chung's scorelines show seven 2-0 wins.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chung's first-set record is much stronger, and Donski often starts slowly.
- Chung has won 9 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Donski has won only 3 of 8 first sets on hard.
- Chung's set1 games won average is 5.33.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYunseong ChungEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's second-set record is the clearest split in the match data.
- Donski has won 6 of 8 second sets on hard.
- Chung has lost the second set in both of his hard-court three-set matches.
- Donski's set2 games won average is 5.38.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlexander DonskiEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chung's short match patterns make a tiebreak-free match more likely.
- Chung has had no tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches.
- Donski has had a tiebreak in three of eight hard-court matches.
- Chung's matches average 19.8 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Yunseong Chung

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#465Alexandr Binda

6-3 6-4#361Alibek Kachmazov

6-2 6-3#595Chase Ferguson

3-6 6-3 ret.#617Leo Borg

6-4 6-2—Xirui Han

6-2 6-2—Zihan Gao

6-3 6-4#885Jerry Roddick

6-1 6-3#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-3 3-6 6-3#427Masamichi Imamura

3-6 6-4 4-0 ret.#339Philip Sekulic

6-2 7-5—Takumi Katsuda

4-6 6-3 6-2#534Fitriadi M Rifqi

6-2 ret.#1803Ku Keon Kang

6-3 6-3—Fanming Meng

6-4 6-4#595Chase Ferguson

Alexander Donski

8W 7L

7-5 6-2#285Georgii Kravchenko

6-3 3-6 6-1#323Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-4 1-6 6-1#166Andrea Guerrieri

7-6(4) 6-4#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 7-6(5)#232Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 6-4#615Takuya Kumasaka

6-3 6-4#870Nitin Kumar Sinha

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#850Kenny de Schepper

6-4 6-3#262Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-3#204Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-1#330Marko Topo

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 6-2—Jiri Cizek

6-2 6-4—Erik Grevelius

6-3 6-3#262Max Hans Rehberg

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YCYunseong ChungChung

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Alexander DonskiDonskiAD

Yunseong Chung carries the stronger recent form — Alexander Donski's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.0%+2.0pp56.0%

1st Serve Won71.9%+4.6pp76.5%

2nd Serve Won55.2%+6.6pp48.6%

Aces / Match6.5+2.48.9

Double Faults / Match2.51.7 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.8%+3.9pp35.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.2%—45.7%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+6.3pp64.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.2%+1.6pp50.6%

Serve · 3–2

58.0%1st Serve In+2.0pp56.0%

71.9%1st Serve Won+4.6pp76.5%

55.2%2nd Serve Won+6.6pp48.6%

6.5Aces / Match+2.48.9

2.5Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

39.8%Return Pts Won+3.9pp35.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

45.2%Break Pts Converted—45.7%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp64.2%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won+1.6pp50.6%