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Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #4050Qian Sun #890China2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Sun 25 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMitsuki Wei Kang Leong · 485 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Qian Sun

China

Sun, a 188cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand, is ranked No. 896 and listed as a hard-court player. He has played most of his recent tennis in Chinese and Japanese lower-tier hard-court events, including a three-set loss to Hayato Matsuoka on 11 October 2026.

Current ranking: #890
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:43 · Europe/Bucharest

First meeting between two qualifiers: Leong is ranked 485 places higher, but Sun's serve and second-set record make him awkward.

Leong is the likelier winner, yet the 1.18 on him demands more than a 6-6 hard-court record supports. The price with something to offer is Sun at 4.75, a potential value play despite five losses in his last six.

Context

The gap between Sun's first and second sets is the most distinctive feature of his hard-court record.
Sun is regularly chasing from a set down, which hands Leong an early opening in a best-of-three. Leong's own first-set record is only 5-7, so an early lead is available without being automatic. The second-set trend says Sun tends to be more competitive later, which matters because one dropped set is not fatal here.
- Set 1: 3 wins, 12 losses across 15 completed hard-court matches, 12 August to 20 October 2026.
- Set 2: 10 wins, 5 losses across the same 15 matches.
- Sun's sample includes no retirements.
Sun's serve is the part of his game that most complicates Leong's status as favourite.
He landed 65.5% of first serves and won 545 of 794 first-serve points in the tracked sample, and saved 60.2% of break points. Those numbers mean Leong may not get the cheap service games the ranking gap implies. The caveat is that Sun's second-serve points won sits at 45.9%, so pressure on the second delivery remains a way in.
- First-serve points won: 545 of 794 (68.6%) across 15 hard-court matches, 12 August to 20 October 2026.
- First serves in: 794 of 1212 (65.5%); aces: 87 in 15 matches (5.8 per match).
- Break points saved: 68 of 113 (60.2%); second-serve points won: 192 of 418 (45.9%).
This is a qualifying-round fixture, so both players are competing for entry to the main draw rather than beginning in the tournament proper. The pairing establishes the immediate tournament setting and the stakes of the match. It does not itself establish a playing advantage for either player.
- The Ningbo qualifying draw pairs Leong with Sun in Q1 on 25 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 00:41 · Europe/BucharestMatchstatmatchstat.com · 24 Oct 2026
Neither player brings a previous head-to-head match from which to draw direct matchup history. The fixture will therefore provide their first recorded competitive reference point against one another. That absence does not establish how either player will handle the matchup.
- No previous meeting is recorded between Leong and Sun before Ningbo qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 00:41 · Europe/BucharestMatchstatmatchstat.com · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leong has the ranking edge and faces an opponent who has struggled badly in first sets and recent matches.
- Leong is ranked No. 405, while Sun is No. 890.
- Leong is 6-6 on hard courts in the tracked sample; Sun is 7-8.
- Sun has one win in his last six completed matches.
- Sun's first-set record on hard courts is 3-12.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun's first sets often run long because he concedes many games, and Leong's matches are only slightly shorter.
- Leong's first sets average 8.75 total games.
- Sun's first sets average 10.2 total games.
- Sun's first-set games lost average is 5.73.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun's matches regularly extend into a third set, and his longer average total games points to a match near or above the line.
- Leong's hard-court matches average 21.4 total games; Sun's average 24.9.
- Sun's matches average 2.6 sets, with nine of 15 going to a third set.
- Sun's average match length is 134.9 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-set game averages are just under the line, making under slightly more likely.
- Leong's second sets average 9.5 total games.
- Sun's second sets average 9.33 total games.
- Sun's second-set games lost average is 4.2.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sun's very poor first-set record gives Leong a clear early edge even though Leong's own first-set record is modest.
- Leong won the first set in 5 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Sun won the first set in only 3 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Sun's first-set games lost average is 5.73.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun's second-set record is the strongest part of his hard-court evidence, and he often improves after a slow start.
- Sun won the second set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Sun's second-set games won average is 5.13.
- Leong's second-set record is 7-5 on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonQian SunEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leong's straight-set rate and Sun's several heavy losses make under 2.5 slightly more likely.
- Leong's 12 hard-court matches include eight straight-set finishes.
- Leong's average sets per match is 2.33.
- Sun has four 0-2 losses and four 1-2 losses in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have more matches without a tiebreak, so no tiebreak is the more likely outcome.
- Leong had no tiebreak in 9 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Sun had no tiebreak in 9 of 15 hard-court matches.
- The combined tiebreak rate is about one in three.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#449Luca Castelnuovo

6-7(4) 6-4 3-1 ret.—Fumin Jiang

6-3 6-3#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-3 4-6 6-1#671Sidharth Rawat

6-2 6-3#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-4 6-4#697Thomas Fancutt

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#327Petr Bar Biryukov

6-2 6-3#551James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-1#294Sergey Fomin

2-6 6-1 4-0 ret.#822Hanyi Liu

6-0 6-1—Ye Hongyu

6-2 6-1#388Omar Jasika

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.—Thijmen Loof

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3—Takeru Yuzuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#143Ilia Simakin

Qian Sun

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#296Fajing Sun

6-2 6-7(5) 6-4#242Hayato Matsuoka

7-5 4-6 6-3#568Nino Ehrenschneider

7-5 6-1#361Alibek Kachmazov

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1—Lachlan Vickery

6-2 6-3#814Yuta Tomida

4-6 6-2 7-6(7)#481Colin Sinclair

3-6 6-3 6-3#839Miles Jones

6-4 6-4#875Hiromasa Koyama

6-7(7) 6-0 6-2—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-3 3-6 6-2—Fumin Jiang

6-3 6-4#327Petr Bar Biryukov

2-6 7-6(6) 6-4#788Tianhui Zhang

7-6(5) 6-4#756Yunseong Chung

3-6 6-3 6-0#749Yuta Kawahashi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Qian SunSunQS

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — Qian Sun's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.7%+1.8pp65.5%

1st Serve Won73.2%+4.6pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+7.0pp45.9%

Aces / Match6.0—5.8

Double Faults / Match2.51.2 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.4%—39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted42.9%+8.7pp51.6%

Break Pts Saved46.2%+14.0pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.4pp50.3%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

63.7%1st Serve In+1.8pp65.5%

73.2%1st Serve Won+4.6pp68.6%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+7.0pp45.9%

6.0Aces / Match—5.8

2.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.4%Return Pts Won—39.1%

Pressure · 0–2

42.9%Break Pts Converted+8.7pp51.6%

46.2%Break Pts Saved+14.0pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.4pp50.3%