SwitzerlandATP BaselFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mika Brunold #195Switzerland0Remy Bertola #219Switzerland2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–625%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMika Brunold · 24 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #195
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Remy Bertola

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Public player records list hard as his preferred surface and show a career-best ranking reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: #176 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 09:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Brunold, 13-1 in his last 14 and unbeaten in six indoor hard matches, meets a Bertola whose serve has kept him competitive despite a 6-9 hard-court record.

Brunold looks the likelier winner and 1.65 is a workable price; over 24.5 games at 2.1, over 2.5 sets at 2.3 and Bertola +3.5 games at 1.5 hold up too, while Brunold to win the second set at 1.65 offers nothing.

Context

Brunold arrives at this meeting after a tight straight-sets qualifying win rather than an early exit. Taking both tiebreaks identifies the immediate route that put him into this fixture and adds context beyond the scoreline. It does not establish a broader change in his level or any specific matchup advantage over Bertola.
- Brunold won both sets against Faria in tiebreaks .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:42 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 24 Oct 2026
Bertola reached this matchup through a notably one-sided first qualifying match, giving his current-event route useful context. The score shows he spent little time on court in that opening match. A single routine qualifying result does not by itself establish a sustained performance shift.
- Bertola lost only three games against Paul in the Basel qualifying opener.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:42 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 24 Oct 2026
Brunold has started quickly in this stretch, though the tiebreak count shows those first sets have been close rather than one-sided. His second sets are less secure at 4-2, and his matches average 25.7 total games. That pattern fits a match where the opening set is tight and the total games run high.
- Six completed indoor hard matches, 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-24.
- Set 1: 5 wins, 1 loss, 5.8 games won to 4.8 lost, three tiebreaks.
- Set 2: 4 wins, 2 losses, 5.2 games won to 5.5 lost.
- Total games average 25.7; four of the six matches contained a tiebreak.
That result is the clearest sign the run is not built only against lower-ranked opposition, and it also shows the dropped set that has recurred: three of his six hard wins this month went the distance. Bertola, ranked 219, is a lesser test on paper than Bonzi. The margin was two games, in keeping with his narrow recent scorelines.
- 14 October 2026: beat Benjamin Bonzi (No. 100) 6-2, 2-6, 6-4.
- Bonzi is the highest-ranked opponent beaten in this six-match indoor hard sample.
- Three of Brunold's six indoor hard wins this month finished 2-1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Brunold has the stronger recent record and higher ranking, with wins over better-ranked opponents.
- Brunold is 13-1 in his last 14 matches and 6-0 on hard.
- Bertola is 6-9 on hard in his last 15 matches.
- Brunold beat Faria (ranked 56) and Bonzi (100) during his current hard-court run.
- Five of Brunold’s six hard wins came by only two games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMika BrunoldEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Recent games have stayed close, giving Bertola a good chance to stay within four games.
- Bertola covered +3.5 in five of his last six completed hard matches.
- Brunold’s six recent wins came by +2 games five times and +4 once.
- Bertola’s latest hard margins were +9, -2, +1, +2, -4 and -2.
- Brunold’s last six hard matches include four with a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRemy Bertola +3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both players’ recent hard-court matches have regularly gone beyond 24.5 games.
- Brunold’s hard-court matches average 25.7 total games.
- Bertola’s hard-court matches average 26.9 total games.
- Brunold has had a tiebreak in four of six hard matches.
- Bertola has had a tiebreak in seven of 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Second sets have tended to run long for both players, especially Bertola.
- Brunold’s second sets average 10.7 total games.
- Bertola’s second sets average 11.1 total games.
- Bertola has six second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Brunold has three second-set tiebreaks in six hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set totals for both players average above nine and a half games.
- Brunold’s first sets average 10.7 total games.
- Bertola’s first sets average 10.4 total games.
- Brunold has three first-set tiebreaks in six hard matches.
- Bertola has two first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Brunold has started strongly on hard, while Bertola’s first-set record is only slightly above even.
- Brunold won the first set in five of six hard matches.
- Bertola won the first set in eight of 14 hard matches.
- Brunold’s first-set game average is 5.8 won to 4.8 lost.
- Bertola’s first-set game average is 5.5 won to 4.9 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMika BrunoldEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Brunold’s second-set record is stronger than Bertola’s, even if less dominant than his first-set record.
- Brunold won the second set in four of six hard matches.
- Bertola won the second set in only five of 14 hard matches.
- Bertola’s second-set game average is 5.6 won to 5.6 lost.
- Brunold’s second-set record is 4-2 on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMika BrunoldEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Recent records show frequent deciding sets, especially when Bertola is competitive.
- Both players average 2.5 sets per hard-court match.
- Brunold has three 2-1 wins in six hard matches.
- Bertola has seven three-set scorelines in 14 hard matches.
- Bertola’s recent matches included three-setters against Goffin, Cina and Mpetshi Perricard.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown tiebreak-heavy match patterns on hard.
- Brunold has had a tiebreak in four of six hard matches.
- Bertola has had a tiebreak in seven of 14 hard matches.
- Brunold’s first sets average 10.7 games.
- Bertola’s first sets average 10.4 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance64%

Mika Brunold

14W 1L

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#56Jaime Faria

2-6 7-6(5) 6-1#243Matteo Martineau

7-6(2) 7-6(3)#223Jerome Kym

6-3 2-6 6-3#186Felix Balshaw

6-2 2-6 6-4#100Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(2) 6-3—Mathys Domenc

6-0 3-6 6-4#314Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#329Francesco Forti

6-3 1-6 7-5#365Massimo Giunta

6-4 6-3#188Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-2#175Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-1#114Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#495Filip Misolic

6-3 4-0 ret.#342Miguel Damas

7-5 6-4#416Matthew William Donald

Remy Bertola

6W 9L

6-2 6-1#869Jakub Paul

3-6 6-3 6-4#657David Goffin

3-6 7-6(6) 7-6(4)#135Federico Cina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 7-5#145Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-5 7-5#121Otto Virtanen

3-6 7-5 6-3#318Lucas Poullain

6-4 6-3#812Alexandre Reco

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#102Jesper De Jong

3-6 6-4 10-8#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#209Edas Butvilas

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#223Jerome Kym

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#213Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-4#232Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 7-6(2)#203Andre Ilagan

6-4 6-4#87Jacob Fearnley

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Remy BertolaBertolaRB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Remy Bertola's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1566.4%+7.8pp58.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.0%+2.8pp73.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1556.0%+3.6pp52.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.1+2.35.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.63.3 fewer4.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.3%+6.5pp35.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.4%+3.8pp38.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.5%+5.5pp59.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.9%+4.0pp49.9%

Serve · 3–2

66.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+7.8pp58.6%

71.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp73.8%

56.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp52.4%

3.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.35.4

1.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.3 fewer4.9

Return · 1–0

42.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp35.8%

Pressure · 2–0

42.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp38.6%

64.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp59.0%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp49.9%

Mika Brunold

Remy Bertola

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Remy Bertola +3.5

Mika Brunold

Over 24.5

Mika Brunold

Over 2.5

Mika Brunold 2-1

Mika Brunold

Over 9.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mika Brunold

Remy Bertola

Stat Battle