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Predictions graded

Matisse Bobichon #515France2Yannik Kelm #438Germany1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 7-5Sun 25 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYannik Kelm · 77 places

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #515
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yannik Kelm

Germany

Kelm is listed at No. 438, with a right-handed two-handed backhand and hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #438
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 09:59 · Europe/Bucharest

A Brest qualifying opener indoors, a first meeting, between 515th-ranked Bobichon and 438th-ranked Kelm.

Bobichon has the deeper hard-court record and the stronger first serve, so he is a fair favourite, but 1.5 is too short for him. Kelm at 2.4 is the one price that offers something, with his return numbers keeping the match close.

Context

Nine of those 15 matches were Bobichon 2-0 wins and four were 0-2 defeats, with one three-setter in each direction. His hard-court matches averaged 20.1 total games, a short format built on 73.4% of first-serve points won. Kelm's two indoor hard matches averaged 25 games and included a three-set loss, so the quick-finish habit is Bobichon's rather than a shared one. Fifteen matches describes a pattern; it does not guarantee another short match.
- 13 of Bobichon's 15 completed hard-court matches from 7 September to 15 October 2026 finished 2-0 either way (nine wins, four losses).
- His hard-court matches averaged 20.1 total games and 2.13 sets.
- Bobichon won 73.4% of first-serve points across those 15 hard-court matches.
The defeat came against an opponent ranked more than 300 places below Kelm, and it followed a straight-sets win over Pierre Yves Bailly the previous day. Across his last 15 matches Kelm is 11-4, but much of that work came on clay in July, so his indoor hard form is close to unknown. Bobichon, by contrast, has 15 completed hard matches in the same period. Two matches is a thin basis either for confidence or for writing Kelm off.
- Kelm lost 3-6 7-5 4-6 to Calvin Mueller, ranked 751, on 14 October 2026 on indoor hard.
- He won 14 games and lost 17 across the three sets.
Kelm's return points won (471 of 1,074) and break-point conversion (59 of 126) sit alongside 51.7% of total points won over the same 15 matches. Bobichon has saved 69% of break points on hard and won 73.4% of first-serve points, so the contest turns on whether Kelm can create and take the few chances he gets. The sample is not surface-specific, and only two of those matches were on hard. It points to a competitive match rather than guaranteeing breaks.
- Kelm has won 43.9% of return points (471 of 1,074) across his last 15 matches.
- He has converted 46.8% of break points (59 of 126) in the same 15-match sample.
- He has won 51.7% of total points (1,104 of 2,134) over those matches.
The Court 1 listing fixes the immediate setting for this qualifying opener in Brest. It establishes that both players are beginning at the same event stage rather than arriving from different rounds. The supplied listing does not provide court-condition or availability information that would distinguish either player.
- The qualifying first-round match is listed for Court 1 at 12:30 local .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:57 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templefr.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Matisse Bobichon

1.55fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 64.5%

−7.5ppshort

Bobichon has a notably strong second-set record on hard, often extending or closing matches after the first set.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Matisse Bobichon

1.55fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 64.5%

−8.5ppshort

Bobichon's first-set record is positive across a larger hard sample, and his serve gives him an early edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon has the larger hard-court sample and the stronger first-serve points, while Kelm's higher ranking keeps the match close.
- Bobichon is 10-5 on hard over 15 matches and has won 54% of games.
- Bobichon has won 73.4% of first-serve points on hard.
- Kelm is 1-1 on hard in only two matches despite an 11-4 overall record.
- Kelm is ranked 438 and Bobichon 515.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's recent hard-court matches have generally been short, with few extended sets.
- Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches averaged 20.1 total games.
- Thirteen of Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
- Kelm's two hard-court matches averaged 25 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance67%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's matches have mostly been decided in straight sets, making under 2.5 sets the more likely outcome.
- Thirteen of Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
- Bobichon's hard-court matches averaged 2.13 sets.
- Kelm's hard-court sample is only two matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Bobichon has a notably strong second-set record on hard, often extending or closing matches after the first set.
- Bobichon won 11 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Bobichon averaged 5.27 games won to 3.93 lost in second sets.
- Kelm won both of his hard-court second sets in two matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Bobichon's first-set record is positive across a larger hard sample, and his serve gives him an early edge.
- Bobichon won 9 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Bobichon has won 73.4% of first-serve points on hard.
- Kelm split first sets 1-1 in two hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatisse BobichonEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's matches have mostly avoided tiebreaks, and Kelm's short hard record also had none.
- Bobichon had a tiebreak in 4 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Kelm had no tiebreaks in two hard-court matches.
- Thirteen of Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate is near 6.5, slightly favoring under with Kelm's lower hard-court rate.
- Kelm averages 2.0 double faults in two hard-court matches.
- Bobichon averages 3.3 double faults per hard-court match.
- Their overall double-fault averages combine to about 6.4 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's serve gives him most of the ace count, and Kelm's hard sample adds enough to make 6.5 close.
- Bobichon averages 4.8 aces per hard-court match.
- Kelm averages 1.5 aces overall and 2.5 in two hard-court matches.
- Their overall ace averages combine to about 6.3 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Matisse Bobichon

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#186Felix Balshaw

7-5 7-6(5)#249Billy Harris

6-1 1-6 6-1#479Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-4 6-2#1149Alejandro Garcia

7-5 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

6-0 6-0#899Leonid Sheyngezikht

7-5 6-0—Carlos Giraldi

6-4 6-4#465Viktor Durasovic

6-2 6-1#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#79Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-4#379Eliakim Coulibaly

7-6(6) 6-3#415Justin Boulais

6-2 6-4#1755Alex Kobelt

7-6(4) 6-1#137Jurij Rodionov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#415Justin Boulais

Yannik Kelm

11W 4L

6-3 5-7 6-4#751Calvin Mueller

6-3 6-4#760Pierre Yves Bailly

7-6(0) 6-0—Tom Sickenberger

6-4 6-1#793Aaron Funk

7-6(6) 7-5#854Deney Wassermann

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#524Patrick Zahraj

6-2 7-5#407Johan Nikles

6-4 6-3—David Eichenseher

6-2 6-2#591John Hallquist Lithen

6-4 6-4#423Louis Wessels

4-6 7-5 7-5#875Stijn Paardekooper

7-5 6-1#1664Dax Donders

6-3 6-2—Daniel Verbeek

6-3 6-4#783Jannik Opitz

6-4 6-2#424Mika Petkovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMatisse BobichonBobichon

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Yannik KelmKelmYK

Yannik Kelm carries the stronger recent form — Matisse Bobichon's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.9%+1.2pp60.1%

1st Serve Won73.4%+9.5pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won50.8%+2.6pp53.4%

Aces / Match4.8+3.31.5

Double Faults / Match3.3—3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.3%+4.6pp43.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.2%+5.6pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved69.0%+7.5pp61.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—51.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.9%1st Serve In+1.2pp60.1%

73.4%1st Serve Won+9.5pp63.9%

50.8%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp53.4%

4.8Aces / Match+3.31.5

3.3Double Faults / Match—3.1

Return · 0–1

39.3%Return Pts Won+4.6pp43.9%

Pressure · 1–1

41.2%Break Pts Converted+5.6pp46.8%

69.0%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp61.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—51.7%

Matisse Bobichon

Yannik Kelm

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yannik Kelm

Matisse Bobichon

Matisse Bobichon

Matisse Bobichon 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 1 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Matisse Bobichon

Yannik Kelm

Stat Battle