EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorRET

Predictions graded

Mateo Del PinoArgentina2Wilson Leite #689Brazil1

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 1-0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–340%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Mateo Del Pino

Argentina

Argentine left-hander listed at 173 cm, ranked No. 1103 in the 12 October list. Arrived in Cali on six straight defeats, every one in straight sets, the latest a first-round loss on clay at the Quito M15.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Wilson Leite

Brazil

Seeded fourth at his home ITF event in Curitiba and reached the semifinals before a 7-5 6-2 loss to top seed Mateus Alves on 26 September. Ranked No. 717 and listed with clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #689
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 10:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Two out-of-form clay-courters meet in Guayaquil qualifying: a 23-year-old left-hander on a six-match losing run against a 34-year-old ranked No. 689 who has lost nine of 15 on clay.

Leite is the likelier winner, but the 1.22 on him asks too much. The prices that hold up are on Del Pino: 3.8 to win the match, 3.2 to take the first set, 3.2 to take the second.

Context

The sample is unusually compressed: nine 0-2 losses, three 2-0 wins and only one tiebreak across those 12 matches. It points to matches decided before a third set becomes relevant, which shapes how long this one should run. Twelve matches over roughly three months describe a stretch of form, not a fixed trait.
- Set sample: 12 completed best-of-3 clay matches, 13 July to 18 October 2026; scorelines nine 0-2 and three 2-0; average 2.0 sets and 17.5 total games; one match with a tiebreak.
Leite, No. 689, took the opening set and still lost to an opponent far below him in the rankings, one of five three-set matches in his 15-match clay sample. No injury or fitness issue is reported, so this stands as a single result rather than an explanation. It does sit alongside a 6-9 clay record and shows his level has swung from week to week.
- 18 October 2026: Leite lost 6-4 4-6 5-7 to Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez (ranked No. 1419) on clay, 15-17 in games, over three sets.
The court assignment establishes the match’s place in the qualifying schedule and may help readers follow the day’s order of play. It does not establish an unusual workload, court condition, or availability difference between the players.
- The Guayaquil qualifying order places Del Pino versus Leite on Cancha 2 between the Galan-Arias and Lalami Laaroussi-Salazar matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 10:02 · Europe/BucharestGuayaquil match listingen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The listing provides basic orientation for a qualifying matchup between a 34-year-old clay-oriented player and a 23-year-old left-hander. It is not a performance indicator and does not identify a current playing-condition advantage.
- The match listing shows Leite at No. 689, no displayed ranking for Del Pino, and ages of 34 and 23 respectively.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 10:02 · Europe/BucharestGuayaquil match listingen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leite has held serve and scored points more solidly than Del Pino, whose clay results are a run of straight-set defeats.
- Leite is 6-9 on clay over 15 tracked matches with 50.1% of total points won and 56.3% of break points saved.
- Del Pino is 4-9 on clay and has lost his last six completed matches, four of them in straight sets.
- Del Pino has no displayed ranking; Leite is listed at No. 689.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWilson LeiteEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for these two are shorter on average than first sets, and Del Pino tends to fade rather than extend.
- Del Pino's second sets average 8.5 total games on clay; Leite's average 8.93.
- Del Pino loses second sets by an average of 3.5 to 5.0 games.
- Only one tiebreak appeared across Del Pino's second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players hover right at nine games, and Del Pino's are usually closed out without extending.
- Del Pino's first sets average 9.0 total games on clay; Leite's average 9.13.
- Del Pino's first-set scorelines typically read 6-3 or 6-2 against him.
- Only one tiebreak appeared in Del Pino's 12 first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leite's matches regularly stretch past twenty games, and the line sits right around the combined average of the two players.
- Leite's clay matches average 21.3 total games; Del Pino's average 17.5.
- Leite has played 5 three-set matches in 15; those matches ran 25-32 games.
- Set-level totals average 9.0 (Del Pino) and 9.1 (Leite) in the first set.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 19.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino's matches almost never reach a third set, and Leite only goes the distance in about a third of his.
- All 12 of Del Pino's clay matches in the set sample finished in straight sets (nine 0-2, three 2-0).
- Leite's average match length is 2.33 sets over 15 clay matches.
- Del Pino's average is 2.0 sets per match.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino starts slowly far more often than not, while Leite wins the opening set in a reasonable share of his clay matches.
- Leite won the first set in 6 of 15 clay matches; Del Pino won it in 3 of 12.
- Del Pino averages 3.75 games won against 5.25 lost in first sets on clay.
- Del Pino has lost the opening set in nine of his last twelve clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonWilson LeiteEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are Leite's stronger half of the match, while they are Del Pino's weakest.
- Leite won the second set in 9 of 15 clay matches, averaging 4.8 games against 4.13.
- Del Pino won the second set in only 3 of 12 clay matches.
- Del Pino averages 3.5 games won and 5.0 lost in second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostWilson LeiteEstimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's clay matches regularly reach 6-6 in a set.
- Del Pino had one tiebreak in 12 clay matches; Leite had two in 15.
- Only three tiebreaks total across the two clay samples.
- Leite's first-set games average 9.13, mostly settled before 7-6.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%

Mateo Del Pino

5W 10L

6-4 6-4#594Juan Sebastian Gomez

7-5 6-1#680Juan Sebastian Osorio

6-2 6-1—Manuel Mouilleron Salvo

6-1 6-2#328Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

7-5 6-4—Valentino Grippo

7-6(5) 6-2—Felipe De Dios

6-2 6-3#719Santiago De La Fuente

6-1 3-0 ret.—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-1 6-1—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

6-4 6-3—Leonel Cesar Castro

6-4 1-6 10-5—Nathan Cox

6-0 6-3—Gustavo Albieri

6-1 6-1—Marcco Iannoni

7-5 6-3—Felipe Pagnacco

Wilson Leite

6W 9L

4-6 6-4 7-5#1419Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez

6-2 6-4#394Hernan Casanova

6-1 6-2#1851Luis Britto

6-3 3-6 6-4#394Hernan Casanova

6-4 1-6 6-2#567Bruno Fernandez

6-1 7-6(5)#519Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-2 6-4#899Justin Roberts

7-5 6-2#399Mateus Alves

6-3 6-2#742Jose Pereira

7-5 6-2#806Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-3 6-4—Gabriel Roveri Sidney

6-1 6-0—Martin Vergara Del Puerto

6-3 3-6 6-0#426Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-1 6-2#399Mateus Alves

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#816Benjamin Torrealba

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMateo Del PinoPino

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Wilson LeiteLeiteWL

Wilson Leite carries the stronger recent form — Mateo Del Pino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1564.9%+9.7pp55.2%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1553.1%+14.4pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1538.5%+9.5pp48.0%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/150.5+1.41.9

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/154.52.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1544.7%+3.0pp41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1548.2%+4.6pp43.6%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1547.1%+9.2pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1546.4%+3.7pp50.1%

Serve · 1–4

64.9%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+9.7pp55.2%

53.1%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+14.4pp67.5%

38.5%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+9.5pp48.0%

0.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.41.9

4.5Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

44.7%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.0pp41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

48.2%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+4.6pp43.6%

47.1%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+9.2pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

46.4%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.7pp50.1%

Mateo Del Pino

Wilson Leite

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mateo Del Pino

Mateo Del Pino

Mateo Del Pino

Wilson Leite 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mateo Del Pino

Wilson Leite

Stat Battle