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Predictions graded

Lucas Poullain #318France2Timeo TrufelliFrance0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:15 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions6–186%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Lucas Poullain

France

French right-hander, born 5 December 1995. Public profile sources list a singles career high of No. 244; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #318
Peak ranking: #244
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Timeo Trufelli

France

Born 20 February 2008. No singles ranking is listed for this match.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 09:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Poullain's steady serve against Trufelli's bigger but wilder one shapes a qualifying opener where the ranking gap flatters the favourite.

Poullain should advance, most likely in two sets. At 1.07 he offers nothing; the only quote with anything in it is Trufelli at 7.00.

Context

The profile is high-variance: a modest first-serve percentage but an exceptional 74.4% win rate when the first ball lands, plus 3.5 double faults per match handing over free points. Poullain's contrast is stark, at 70.3% first serves in and 1.3 double faults, so Trufelli's route is short points rather than long exchanges. Across the 15-match window the ace count is a genuine weapon, but the second serve and fault count give Poullain return chances.
- 15 matches tracked: 55.9% first serves in (633/1132) and 74.4% first-serve points won (471/633).
- 5.1 aces and 3.5 double faults per match over the same 15-match window.
The Center Court listing identifies this as a qualifying-round fixture rather than a main-draw match. That establishes the immediate entry stakes at Brest for both players. The listing does not provide a court-condition or player-availability distinction.
- The fixture is listed as a Men's Singles Qualifying Round 1 match on Center Court .
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:45 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026
Poullain's 9-6 hard-court record between 9 August and 12 October was built partly on recovery: he is 6-9 in opening sets, averaging 5.0 games won and 5.1 lost, but 8-7 in second sets. Only three of those 15 matches featured a first-set tiebreak, so the pattern is about early breaks rather than coin-flip sets. It argues against assuming a fast start here, though a 6-9 split over 15 matches is a thin base for a firm claim.
- 15 hard-court matches, 9 Aug–12 Oct 2026: first sets won 6, lost 9; second sets won 8, lost 7.
- First-set games: 5.0 won and 5.07 lost per match; three first-set tiebreaks across the 15 matches.
Three of Trufelli's six completed hard-court matches from 7 September to 11 October finished 1-2, and the group averaged 25 games and 2.5 sets. Poullain's larger 15-match hard sample runs the other way at 21.9 games and 2.27 sets per match. Six matches is thin, so this reads as a caution on any expectation of a quick match rather than a trend in its own right.
- Six completed hard-court matches, 7 Sep–11 Oct 2026: 25 total games and 2.5 sets per match.
- Scorelines: three 1-2, two 2-0, one 0-2; two of the six matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's steadier serve and better return numbers give him the edge, though recent form is mixed.
- Poullain is 9-6 on hard in his last 15, with 50.6% total points and 51.5% games won.
- Trufelli is 3-4 on hard in his last seven and 49.6% total points.
- Poullain has a 70.3% first-serve rate and 39.7% return points won, giving him more secure service games.
- Trufelli wins 74.4% of first-serve points on hard but lands only 56.2% first serves.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set game averages sit just above the line, with tiebreak risk adding to the chance of at least ten games.
- Poullain's first sets average 10.07 games on hard; Trufelli's average 10.0.
- Poullain has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches; Trufelli has one in six.
- Both players average about five games won in the first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's matches tend to be short, and a straight-set result would likely keep the total under the line.
- Poullain's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games.
- Poullain has won or lost in straight sets in 11 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Trufelli has two 2-0 wins in his six-match hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes make up most of Poullain's sample and much of Trufelli's, pointing to a shorter match.
- Poullain has five 2-0 wins and six 0-2 losses among 15 hard-court matches.
- Trufelli has two 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss in his six-match hard sample.
- Poullain's average set count is 2.27.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's overall edge is modest, but his set1 record is weaker, so the first set is close to even.
- Poullain's set1 record on hard is 6-9, with 5.0 games won and 5.1 lost.
- Trufelli's set1 record is 3-3, with 5.17 games won and 4.83 lost.
- Poullain has the higher overall hard-court win rate at 9-6.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent completed matches for both players have finished without a tiebreak.
- Poullain has had a tiebreak in 4 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Trufelli has had a tiebreak in 2 of 6 hard-court sample matches.
- Poullain has played 15 hard-court matches with only four tiebreak matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trufelli's serve supplies most of the ace count, and his hard-court rate alone is close to the line.
- Trufelli averages 6.4 aces per match on hard and 5.1 overall.
- Poullain averages 2.4 aces per match on hard.
- Trufelli has 45 aces in seven hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trufelli's high double-fault rate means the combined total can clear 4.5 even with Poullain's low count.
- Trufelli averages 4.0 double faults per match on hard and 3.5 overall.
- Poullain averages 1.3 double faults per match on hard.
- Trufelli has 28 double faults in seven hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance56%

Lucas Poullain

9W 6L

7-6(6) 6-3#676Tom Paris

6-1 6-2#831Gijs Brouwer

6-4 6-1#173Joel Schwaerzler

3-6 7-5 6-3#219Remy Bertola

7-6(4) 5-7 6-3#150Mark Lajal

6-3 6-2—Diogo Morais

6-3 6-4#152Clement Chidekh

7-5 6-4#193David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 6-2#348Moez Echargui

6-3 6-2#289Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-2#380Lui Maxted

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#347Michael Geerts

6-4 6-2#465Viktor Durasovic

6-0 7-6(5)#256Max Basing

5-7 6-2 6-3#143Ilia Simakin

Timeo Trufelli

7W 8L

6-1 1-6 10-7#850Kenny de Schepper

6-1 6-2—Octave Caillat

5-7 6-3 6-4#471Thijs Boogaard

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#875Adrien Gobat

6-3 7-5#831Gijs Brouwer

7-5 6-2#354Arthur Nagel

3-6 6-3 6-4—Louis Van Herck

6-0 6-0—Unknown Player

6-2 6-7(2) 6-4—Hugo Car

6-4 6-3#1446Antoine Walch

6-2 6-1—Matiej Reiter

4-6 6-3 10-5—Evan Jarzaguet

6-7(7) 7-5 6-2—Liam Branger

6-0 6-4#365Massimo Giunta

6-4 7-6(4)—Leonardo Angeloni

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LPLucas PoullainPoullain

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Timeo TrufelliTrufelliTT

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In70.3%+14.4pp55.9%

1st Serve Won66.9%+7.5pp74.4%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+4.4pp44.9%

Aces / Match2.4+2.75.1

Double Faults / Match1.32.2 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+2.3pp37.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.0%+3.2pp42.2%

Break Pts Saved55.6%+2.4pp58.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.6%—50.0%

Serve · 3–2

70.3%1st Serve In+14.4pp55.9%

66.9%1st Serve Won+7.5pp74.4%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+4.4pp44.9%

2.4Aces / Match+2.75.1

1.3Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+2.3pp37.4%

Pressure · 0–2

39.0%Break Pts Converted+3.2pp42.2%

55.6%Break Pts Saved+2.4pp58.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won—50.0%