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Predictions graded

Egor Pleshivtsev #853Russia2Dominik Palan #620Czechia1

Sets 3-6 · 6-1 · 7-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDominik Palan · 233 places

Egor Pleshivtsev

Russia

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #853
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Dominik Palan

Czechia

Palan is a Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His ATP career-high singles ranking is No. 280, achieved in October 2023; no reliable preferred-surface source was surfaced.

Current ranking: #620
Peak ranking: #280 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifiers with patchy hard-court records meet in Ningbo, and the tension is between Pleshivtsev's better return game and his habit of losing opening sets.

Pleshivtsev still looks the likelier winner over three sets. At 2.25 he is the only worthwhile quoted price; Palan at 1.65 is not.

Context

Slow starts are the clearest pattern in Pleshivtsev's recent hard-court record, and they give Palan a plausible route to the first set even if the match turns later. Only one of those nine matches produced a first-set tiebreak, so the deficit has usually been settled before a shootout. The recovery has come in second sets, four of which he won in the same sample.
- Hard-court set data, 9 matches, 8 Aug–18 Oct 2026: Pleshivtsev won 2 of 9 first sets, averaging 3.67 games won and 5.78 lost.
- Same sample: one first-set tiebreak in nine matches; second sets won 4 of 9, averaging 3.89 games won and 4.89 lost.
Palan's matches tend to produce games, with a tiebreak in six of fifteen, but the extra games have rarely turned into sets won. That combination keeps a high game count plausible while arguing against him in a set-based market. His four wins in the window were split two in straight sets and two in three.
- Hard-court set evidence, 15 matches, 21 Jul–20 Oct 2026: total games average 23.93, tiebreaks in 6 of 15, scorelines 0-2 seven times, 1-2 four times, 2-0 twice, 2-1 twice.
The first serve is Palan's one clear edge here: he lands 59.6% of first serves and wins three quarters of those points, against 67.6% for Pleshivtsev in his nine-match hard-court sample. The cost is volatility, with 5.3 double faults a match handing Pleshivtsev free points in return games. Pleshivtsev's 36.0% hard-court return rate gives him a fair chance to use those loose service games.
- Hard-court serve data, 15 matches to 20 Oct 2026: 7.6 aces and 5.3 double faults per match, 59.6% first serves in, 74.0% first-serve points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Pleshivtsev has won more hard-court sets and points than Palan, making him slightly more reliable in rallies.
- Pleshivtsev is 4-5 on hard in this sample; Palan is 4-11.
- Pleshivtsev has won 48.5% of hard-court points; Palan 47.3%.
- Pleshivtsev has won 40.0% of hard-court sets; Palan 33.3%.
- Pleshivtsev returns 36.0% of points on hard; Palan 30.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEgor PleshivtsevEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's first sets often go past nine games, and his serve can produce tiebreaks.
- Palan's first sets average 10.33 total games on hard.
- Pleshivtsev's first sets average 9.44 total games on hard.
- Palan had five first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Palan averages 4.73 first-set games won and 5.60 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's matches on hard have regularly passed this total, and his serving can extend sets.
- Palan's hard-court matches average 23.9 total games.
- Pleshivtsev's hard-court matches average 19.8 total games.
- Palan had a tiebreak in 6 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Pleshivtsev's hard-court matches average 19.8 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets have averaged below ten games, especially Pleshivtsev's.
- Pleshivtsev's second sets average 8.78 total games on hard.
- Pleshivtsev averages 3.89 second-set games won and 4.89 lost.
- Palan averages 4.40 second-set games won and 5.47 lost.
- Palan's second sets average 9.87 total games on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pleshivtsev has lost seven of nine first sets on hard, while Palan has been steadier at the start.
- Palan has won 6 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Pleshivtsev has won only 2 of 9 first sets on hard.
- Pleshivtsev averages 3.67 first-set games won and 5.78 lost.
- Palan averages 4.73 first-set games won and 5.60 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDominik PalanEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have lost more often in straight sets than in three, so a quick finish is slightly more likely.
- Pleshivtsev had five 0-2 losses in nine hard-court matches.
- Palan had seven 0-2 losses in 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined hard-court three-set rate is 8 of 24 matches.
- Pleshivtsev's hard-court matches average 2.22 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pleshivtsev has been more competitive in second sets and Palan has lost 11 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Pleshivtsev has won 4 of 9 second sets on hard.
- Palan has won 4 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Pleshivtsev averages 3.89 second-set games won and 4.89 lost.
- Palan averages 4.40 second-set games won and 5.47 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonEgor PleshivtsevEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in fewer than a third of their recent hard-court matches.
- Pleshivtsev had a tiebreak in 1 of 9 hard-court matches.
- Palan had a tiebreak in 6 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined, they had a tiebreak in 7 of 24 hard-court matches.
- Pleshivtsev's hard-court matches average 2.22 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined double-fault average is below 8.5, with Pleshivtsev especially low.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is 7.4.
- Pleshivtsev averages 2.1 double faults per hard-court match.
- Palan averages 5.3 double faults per hard-court match.
- Palan's first-serve percentage is 59.6% on hard.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's high ace rate plus Pleshivtsev's modest return numbers makes the combined total more likely to pass 12.5.
- Palan averages 7.6 aces per hard-court match.
- Pleshivtsev averages 4.6 aces per hard-court match.
- Pleshivtsev wins 36.0% of return points on hard.
- Palan wins 74.0% of first-serve points on hard.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance54%

Egor Pleshivtsev

8W 7L

7-6(5) 6-4#449Luca Castelnuovo

6-1 6-1#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 7-5#324Cruz Hewitt

6-4 6-1—Ye Hongyu

3-6 6-4 6-0#462Evan Zhu

7-5 6-1#284Yanki Erel

2-6 6-4 6-2—Yua Taka

6-3 7-6(8)—Arthur Laborde

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-3#881Artur Kukasian

6-1 6-3—Davit Zogranian

7-6(5) 6-1#569Ignacio Monzon

6-1 6-4—Unknown Player

6-1 6-1#2043Lawrence Bataljin

6-3 6-3#588Erik Arutiunian

6-1 6-1#589Shunsuke Mitsui

Dominik Palan

4W 11L

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#233Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#430Semen Pankin

6-7(6) 7-6(2) 6-4#403Arthur Weber

7-6(1) 7-5#294Sergey Fomin

7-6(4) 6-4#478Keisuke Saitoh

6-1 6-4#98Terence Atmane

6-3 6-3#747Kuan-Shou Chen

5-7 6-2 7-5#867Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-1 6-2#480Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-4#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-3#819Ji Sung Nam

6-1 6-4#430Semen Pankin

7-6(4) 6-4#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

3-6 7-6(11) 6-2#284Yanki Erel

3-6 6-3 6-4#256Max Basing

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EPEgor PleshivtsevPleshivtsev

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Dominik PalanPalanDP

Dominik Palan carries the stronger recent form — Egor Pleshivtsev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In52.7%+6.9pp59.6%

1st Serve Won71.4%+2.6pp74.0%

2nd Serve Won49.0%+1.1pp47.9%

Aces / Match4.7+2.97.6

Double Faults / Match3.51.8 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+9.6pp30.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted45.7%+1.1pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+2.3pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.9%+2.6pp47.3%

Serve · 2–3

52.7%1st Serve In+6.9pp59.6%

71.4%1st Serve Won+2.6pp74.0%

49.0%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp47.9%

4.7Aces / Match+2.97.6

3.5Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+9.6pp30.1%

Pressure · 0–2

45.7%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp46.8%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won+2.6pp47.3%