ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Alexandr Binda #465Russia2Jia HuChina0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Sun 25 Oct 2026, 06:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #465
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jia Hu

China

17-year-old Chinese player who entered the Chengdu Open singles main draw on a wild card, and he also plays doubles there with Hanlei Lu. He holds no singles ranking.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Binda brings the ranking and the hard-court results into a Ningbo qualifying opener against wild card Jia Hu, whose 3-9 run includes six straight-set defeats.

A Binda win, most plausibly in two sets, is the sensible reading. The 1.07 on him asks for near-certainty his recent results do not provide, so no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Binda's set profile points to short matches rather than extended ones.
Binda averaged 2.27 sets per match across that 15-match sample, with only four going to a decider. That points to a short contest if the ranking gap holds, and Hu's own straight-set losses pull the same way. It supports a two-set shape without settling the winner.
- Binda's 15 completed hard-court matches from 6 Sept to 18 Oct 2026 produced 11 straight-set finishes: seven 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- The same sample contains three 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss, an average of 2.27 sets per match.
Hu's set-by-set record shows slow starts and few extended matches.
A 3-7 first-set record and six 0-2 defeats in 10 matches describe a player who concedes the opening set and seldom stretches a match. Binda's 10 first-set wins in 15 make that gap directly relevant. The sample is small and reaches back to August 2025, so it is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Hu's set evidence covers 10 completed hard-court matches from 10 Aug 2025 to 23 Sept 2026, with a 3-7 first-set record and one tiebreak overall.
- Scorelines in that sample: six 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss and three 2-0 wins.
The most recent result cuts against Binda's otherwise strong hard-court record.
Binda's latest outing ended in defeat to a player ranked 149 places below him, which is the clearest counterweight to his 10-5 sample. He also took just one game against No. 97 Adam Walton on 29 September. Recent form is not a smooth upward line, even if the overall record stays positive.
- 18 Oct 2026: Binda lost 3-6 6-7 to Yaroslav Demin (ranked 614) on hard court.
- 29 Sept 2026: Binda lost 1-6 0-6 to Adam Walton (ranked 97) on hard court.
The October 25 order of play places this qualifying match fourth on Grandstand. That makes its practical start dependent on the completion of the three earlier matches on the court. The listed order identifies the venue sequence but does not establish a player-specific workload or playing advantage.
- The Ningbo qualifying order places Binda versus Hu fourth on Grandstand.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:28 · Europe/BucharestNingbo 2026 Binda-Hu match listingen.tennistemple.com · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexandr Binda

1.07fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 93.5%

−21.5ppshort

Binda has the stronger hard-court record and more complete recent results, while Hu's tracked form is poor.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Binda has the stronger hard-court record and more complete recent results, while Hu's tracked form is poor.
- Binda is 10-5 on hard courts in the last 15 tracked matches; Hu is 3-9 in 12 tracked matches.
- Binda's hard-court games won rate is 52.6%; Hu's aggregate serve and return metrics are missing.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hu's short match profile and Binda's frequent straight-set results favor a lower total.
- Hu's hard-court set sample averages 19.2 total games; Binda's recent 2-0 wins include an 18-game finish.
- Binda's 15 hard-court matches produced 11 straight-set finishes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hu's shorter first sets pull the combined expectation below the line.
- Hu's first sets average 8.5 total games; Binda's average 9.8.
- Binda's first-set average is close to the line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's second sets tend to be slightly longer than Hu's.
- Binda's second sets average 9.9 total games; Hu's average 9.4.
- Binda's second sets include four tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' hard-court records.
- Binda's 15 hard-court matches produced 11 straight-set finishes; Hu's 10 produced nine.
- Hu's hard-court set sample has only one three-set match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Binda starts strongly more often than Hu on hard courts.
- Binda won the first set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches; Hu won the first set in 3 of 10.
- Binda's first-set games average is 5.3-4.5 in his favor.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda holds a modest edge in second sets, though the margin is narrow.
- Binda's second-set record is 8-7 on hard courts; Hu's is 4-6.
- Binda's second-set games average is 5.1-4.8.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Binda's most common winning score is 2-0, and Hu has often lost in straight sets.
- Binda's hard-court scorelines include seven 2-0 wins in 15 matches; Hu has six 0-2 losses in 10.
- Binda has three 2-1 wins in the same sample.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlexandr Binda 2-0Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are uncommon in both players' hard-court samples.
- Hu's 10 hard-court matches produced one tiebreak; Binda's 15 produced six.
- Both players' hard-court set samples lean toward straight-set scorelines.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance71%

Alexandr Binda

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(4)#614Yaroslav Demin

6-1 6-0#97Adam Walton

6-3 6-3#671Sidharth Rawat

5-7 7-6(4) 6-1#747Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 4-6 6-3#813Jesse Flores

6-4 7-6(3)#642Nikolai Barsukov

6-4 6-4#756Yunseong Chung

6-3 6-4#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#296Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#891Aoran Wang

6-4 4-6 6-4#826Kousuke Ogura

7-6(7) 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

7-6(4) 6-2#353Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-1—Cheng-Peng Hsieh

Jia Hu

5W 10L

6-4 7-5#66Vit Kopriva

6-2 6-1#822Hanyi Liu

2-2 ret.#659Kuan-Yi Lee

6-1 6-4—Jaesung Choe

7-5 6-7(9) 7-6(3)#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-2 6-4—Qiulin Wang

6-2 6-1—Hanzhe Wang

6-2 6-1#730Maxim Zhukov

6-2 7-5#309Akira Santillan

6-3 3-1 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-2—Zichen Shao

6-0 6-2—Shixun Zhu

3-6 6-1 13-11—Hao Duan

6-4 ret.—Changli Zhang

7-5 6-7(4) 10-6—Elijah Cham

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlexandr BindaBinda

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Jia HuHuJH

Alexandr Binda carries the stronger recent form — Jia Hu's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 8/1559.7%+2.0pp57.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 8/1572.6%+10.7pp61.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 8/1551.3%+4.7pp46.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 8/156.1+4.02.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 8/153.30.8 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 8/1540.1%+7.6pp32.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 8/1537.0%+8.5pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 8/1556.3%+1.3pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 8/1551.6%+6.8pp44.8%

Serve · 4–1

59.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 8/15+2.0pp57.7%

72.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 8/15+10.7pp61.9%

51.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 8/15+4.7pp46.6%

6.1Aces / Match15/15 · 8/15+4.02.1

3.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 8/150.8 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

40.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 8/15+7.6pp32.5%

Pressure · 1–1

37.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 8/15+8.5pp45.5%

56.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 8/15+1.3pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 8/15+6.8pp44.8%