KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia2Stefanos Tsitsipas #39Greece1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-3Sat 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalI.hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefanos Tsitsipas · 89 places

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

Reached a career-high No. 3 in August 2021. The ATP lists grass as his favourite surface, and he ended a 16-month title drought at Gstaad in July 2026.

Current ranking: #39
Peak ranking: #3 · 2021
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili arrives on a 12-1 hard-court run as a qualifier; Tsitsipas, ranked 39 to Basilashvili's 128, owns the better recent wins and a 3-1 head-to-head.

Tsitsipas is the likelier winner, but 1.38 asks for 72.5%. The worthwhile quotes sit with Basilashvili: 3.0 to win the match, 2.6 to take the first set or the second.

Context

Against Duckworth, Tsitsipas combined 15 aces with no double faults and held serve throughout. That performance immediately precedes the Basilashvili semifinal and provides current-event service context. Basilashvili has already played five Almaty matches including qualifying, so the players arrive via different workloads.
- Tsitsipas beat Duckworth 6-3, 6-4 with 15 aces, no double faults and no service breaks conceded.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/BucharestTsitsipas v Basilashvili match previewtennistonic.com · 23 Oct 2026
He took 12 of 13 first sets and 11 of 13 second sets in that sample, averaging 22.5 total games. The run was built against opponents ranked 71 to 197, so a top-40 opponent is a different test. Ten straight-set wins still show he has been closing matches quickly.
- Basilashvili: 12-1 in 13 hard-court matches from 22 September to 23 October 2026, with ten 2-0 and two 2-1 scorelines.
- He won 12 of 13 first sets and 11 of 13 second sets in that sample.
- Average 22.5 total games and 2.23 total sets per match.
Basilashvili entered this semifinal ranked No. 128 and has moved through qualifying and the main draw. His projected rise to No. 108 places this Almaty run within a recovery from No. 328 two years earlier. The projected figure is a live calculation rather than an official post-event ranking.
- Basilashvili is a qualifier in the semifinal, with a projected live ranking of No. 108 after being ranked No. 328 two years earlier.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/BucharestBasilashvili v Tsitsipas match pageen.tennistemple.com · 23 Oct 2026
The semifinal is set for a 3:00 pm Saturday Center Court slot. That fixes the match within Almaty's main-court semifinal session rather than leaving its timing unresolved. No court-speed or environmental condition was supplied for that slot.
- The Almaty semifinal is scheduled for 3:00 pm on Saturday, October 24, on Center Court.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/BucharestTsitsipas v Basilashvili match previewtennistonic.com · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tsitsipas has the higher ranking and stronger recent scalps, though Basilashvili's win run keeps this close.
- Tsitsipas is ranked 39 vs 128 and is 10-3 on hard courts in this window.
- He beat Fritz (14) and Darderi (23) recently.
- Basilashvili's recent opponents were ranked 71-197.
- Tsitsipas has won three of four previous meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStefanos TsitsipasEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set game totals average above the line for both players, supporting the over.
- Basilashvili's set2 total-games average is 10.6.
- Tsitsipas's set2 total-games average is 10.2.
- Basilashvili has three set2 tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
- Tsitsipas has one set2 tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around or above the line, and a competitive semi-final can add length.
- Basilashvili's hard-court matches average 22.5 total games.
- Tsitsipas's hard-court matches average 23.5 total games.
- Set2 totals average 10.6 games for Basilashvili and 10.2 for Tsitsipas.
- Combined recent scorelines include seven three-set matches in 24.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With first-set averages near the line and few tiebreaks, the under has a slight case.
- Basilashvili's set1 total-games average is 9.5.
- Tsitsipas's set1 total-games average is 9.8.
- Basilashvili has one set1 tiebreak in 13 hard-court matches.
- Tsitsipas has one set1 tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished hard-court matches in two sets, which favors the under.
- Basilashvili has ten 2-0 scorelines in 13 hard-court matches.
- Tsitsipas has six 2-0 scorelines in 11 hard-court matches.
- Combined, 17 of 24 recent hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
- Basilashvili's total sets average is 2.23; Tsitsipas's is 2.36.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tsitsipas has a solid second-set record and the higher ranking, giving him a slight advantage.
- Tsitsipas has won 8 of 11 set2s on hard courts.
- Basilashvili has lost two of 13 set2s on hard courts.
- Tsitsipas's set2 games average is 5.8 won and 4.4 lost.
- Tsitsipas is ranked 39 vs 128.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonStefanos TsitsipasEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tsitsipas is the higher-ranked player and has won most of his recent first sets, though this is close.
- Tsitsipas has won 8 of 11 set1s on hard courts.
- Basilashvili has lost only one set1 in 13 hard-court matches.
- Tsitsipas's set1 games average is 5.5 won and 4.3 lost.
- Tsitsipas is ranked 39 vs 128.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostStefanos TsitsipasEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players have avoided tiebreaks, making no the stronger side.
- Combined, 18 of 24 recent hard-court matches for these players had no tiebreak.
- Tsitsipas has two tiebreak matches in 11 hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili's set1 has one tiebreak in 13 matches.
- Tsitsipas averages nine aces per match, which can reduce break chances.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%

Prediction history

Stefanos Tsitsipas: 10/15 recent winner projections matched

10 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Stefanos Tsitsipas matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Stefanos Tsitsipas15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#51Stefanos Tsitsipas2-0#831Keegan Rice

BetBugsStefanos Tsitsipas to win·92%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#51Stefanos Tsitsipas2-0#831Keegan Rice

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win

92%probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas won

Matched

19 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#85Stefanos Tsitsipas2-1#42Raphael Collignon

BetBugsStefanos Tsitsipas to win·65%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#85Stefanos Tsitsipas2-1#42Raphael Collignon

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win

65%probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas won

Matched

18 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#100Alexander Shevchenko1-2#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

BetBugsStefanos Tsitsipas to win·65%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#100Alexander Shevchenko1-2#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win

65%probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas won

Matched

17 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#28Arthur Rinderknech1-2#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

BetBugsStefanos Tsitsipas to win·62%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#28Arthur Rinderknech1-2#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win

62%probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas won

Matched

15 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#186Jerome Kym1-2#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

BetBugsStefanos Tsitsipas to win·78%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#186Jerome Kym1-2#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win

78%probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-3 (4 meetings)

L4-1 ret.Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vStefanos Tsitsipas#39Jan 5, 2022

W6-4 2-6 6-4Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vStefanos Tsitsipas#39Oct 15, 2021

L4-6 6-3 6-2Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vStefanos Tsitsipas#39Oct 3, 2019

L6-3 3-6 7-6(7) 6-4Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vStefanos Tsitsipas#39Jan 18, 2019

Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Nikoloz Basilashvili

12W 3L

6-3 6-1#79Adrian Mannarino

6-2 6-4#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 7-5#84Marin Cilic

6-4 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton

6-2 7-5#179Taro Daniel

6-3 2-2 ret.#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#135Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#597Naoya Honda

Stefanos Tsitsipas

12W 3L

6-3 6-4#73James Duckworth

6-1 6-2#389Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(9) 3-6 6-3#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 7-5#5Daniil Medvedev

3-6 7-5 6-3#14Taylor Fritz

6-3 6-4#23Luciano Darderi

6-3 7-5#222Kimmer Coppejans

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#32Valentin Vacherot

4-6 6-3 6-4#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-3#86Rinky Hijikata

7-5 6-2#267Yoshihito Nishioka

2-6 6-3 6-4#80Alex Molcan

7-6(3) 6-4#362Norbert Gombos

6-2 6-3 6-4#4Ben Shelton

2-6 6-1 7-6(3) 6-1#20Jiri Lehecka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipasST

Stefanos Tsitsipas carries the stronger recent form — Nikoloz Basilashvili's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1558.9%+5.9pp64.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1579.3%+1.1pp78.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1556.3%+6.3pp62.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/159.9+0.99.0

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.51.3 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1540.1%+5.1pp35.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1539.8%—39.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1557.9%+1.1pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1554.1%—53.4%

Serve · 2–3

58.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+5.9pp64.8%

79.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.1pp78.2%

56.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+6.3pp62.6%

9.9Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+0.99.0

2.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.3 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

40.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+5.1pp35.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

39.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15—39.7%

57.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+1.1pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

54.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—53.4%