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Predictions graded

Kayo Nishimura #533Japan2Marie Vogt #448Germany0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Sat 24 Oct 2026, 09:05 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarie Vogt · 85 places

Kayo Nishimura

Japan

Nishimura is ranked No. 533 and the structured profile lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #533
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Marie Vogt

Germany

Vogt is ranked No. 448 and the structured profile lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #448
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Vogt's five wins in six hard-court matches meet Nishimura's three wins in three days in this Monastir semifinal.

Vogt's output this autumn and her November 2025 win over Nishimura point to her reaching the final. Only her 2.00 price is worthwhile; the 1.73 on Nishimura asks for more than a 7-7 hard-court record supports.

Context

Vogt's tracked hard-court record is 5-1, built on 11 sets won from 14 and 64.5% of games.
Vogt has won 56.0% of points and 64.5% of games across a six-match hard-court window, and four of those wins came in straight sets. Her lone defeat in that stretch was a three-setter, so she has not been beaten in straight sets on hard in this sample. Six matches is a short sample, so this reads as a strong recent run rather than a settled level.
- Six completed hard-court matches tracked from 20 September to 23 October 2026.
- Record 5-1, with 11 of 14 sets won (78.6%) and 64.5% of games won.
- First sets 5-1 at an average of 5.17 games to 3.33; four of the six matches finished 2-0.
Nishimura's first sets on hard have gone 4-10, with 3.86 games won to 5.29 lost.
Nishimura has won 43.8% of her hard-court sets in this window and just four of 14 opening sets, which puts the first set under real pressure. She still took seven of the 14 matches, twice after dropping the opener, so a slow start has not been decisive on its own. Against an opponent who has started strongly on the same surface, the opening set is the clearest point of separation.
- 14 completed hard-court matches tracked from 21 July to 23 October 2026.
- First sets: 4 wins, 10 losses, 3.86 games won to 5.29 lost per set.
- Overall hard-court sets: 14 won, 32 lost (43.8%).
Vogt's serve produced 3.8 aces per match and 60.4% of first-serve points across her last 15 matches.
The 3.8 aces per match come from 57 in that 15-match window, and her 60.4% return on first serves is a clear strength. The trade-off is the 61.3% first-serve percentage, which leaves a meaningful share of second serves, where she wins 51.2%. That second-serve number is the part of her game an opponent can pressure most directly.
- 15 matches tracked in the last-15 window.
- 57 aces in 15 matches (3.8 per match).
- First-serve points won: 394 of 652 (60.4%); first serves landed: 652 of 1064 (61.3%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Vogt has the stronger current hard-court record, serve numbers and a recent same-venue win over Nishimura.
- Vogt is 5-1 on hard in this sample, winning 64.5% of games and 56.0% of points.
- Nishimura is 7-7 on hard with 46.9% of games and 48.7% of points won.
- Vogt won their previous Monastir meeting 7-6(5), 6-2 in November 2025.
- Vogt is ranked 448 and Nishimura 533.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarie VogtEstimated chance67%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vogt's second-set dominance and Nishimura's modest average keep the under side stronger.
- Vogt's second sets average 8.3 total games on hard.
- Nishimura's second sets average 9.1 total games on hard.
- Vogt's second-set record is 5-1 with an average 5.83-2.50 game margin.
- Vogt's hard-court matches include four 2-0 scorelines.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages sit under 9.5, with Vogt often winning by a modest margin.
- Vogt's first sets average 8.5 total games on hard.
- Nishimura's first sets average 9.1 total games on hard.
- Vogt has won five of six first sets on hard with an average 5.17-3.33 game margin.
- Vogt's first sets include no tiebreaks in six hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their hard-court match averages sit near the line, and several recent matches have gone the distance.
- Nishimura's hard-court matches average 21.0 total games.
- Vogt's hard-court matches average 20.2 total games.
- Nishimura has won two three-set matches in Monastir this week.
- Vogt's hard-court scorelines include one 2-1 win and one 1-2 loss.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vogt's first-set record and serve numbers point to the stronger start.
- Vogt has won five of six first sets on hard.
- Nishimura has won four of 14 first sets on hard.
- Vogt won the first set 7-6(5) in their previous Monastir meeting.
- Vogt's hard-court first-serve points won is 68.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMarie VogtEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vogt's second-set numbers are strong, and Nishimura's second-set record is only around break-even.
- Vogt has won five of six second sets on hard.
- Nishimura has won six of 14 second sets on hard.
- Vogt's hard-court set2 average is 5.83 games won to 2.50 lost.
- Vogt's second-set wins average 8.3 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMarie VogtEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vogt's straight-set wins make a two-set finish the more likely single outcome.
- Vogt has four 2-0 scorelines in six hard matches.
- Vogt's set1 and set2 records are both 5-1 on hard.
- Nishimura's hard matches average 2.29 sets.
- Vogt has won 78.6% of her hard-court sets in this sample.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches in this evidence did not reach a tiebreak.
- Nishimura has had two tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Vogt has had one tiebreak in six hard matches.
- Only three of their 20 combined hard-court matches include a tiebreak.
- Vogt's set1 and set2 hard-court records include one total tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vogt's current hard-court ace rate alone clears the line on average.
- Vogt averages 6.2 aces per hard-court match in this sample.
- Nishimura averages 0.2 aces per hard-court match.
- Vogt's overall ace rate is 3.8 per match.
- Vogt has 37 aces in six hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The current hard-court double-fault rates point to a total under 4.5.
- Vogt averages 2.2 double faults per hard-court match.
- Nishimura averages 1.4 double faults per hard-court match.
- Their combined current hard-court average is around 3.6.
- Nishimura has 18 double faults in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%

Kayo Nishimura

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-1#363Yelyzaveta Kotliar

6-3 5-7 6-4#430Victoria Milovanova

7-5 6-1—Sara Husar

6-3 6-2#591Unknown Player

6-2 6-4#430Victoria Milovanova

6-3 6-1#636Demi Tran

6-3 6-2#411Natsumi Kawaguchi

6-3 6-4#411Natsumi Kawaguchi

6-2 6-0#365Vaishnavi Adkar

4-6 7-6(3) 7-5#438Hikaru Sato

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#465Eunhye Lee

6-2 6-2#508Patcharin Cheapchadej

6-2 6-0#462Dana Guzman

6-2 6-4#860Lexington Reed

6-2 7-5#842Isabella Marton

Marie Vogt

9W 6L

6-3 6-4—Sofia Camila Rojas

6-3 6-0—Baotong Xu

6-3 5-7 6-1—Polina Berezina

6-1 6-1#475Daria Yesypchuk

6-7(3) 6-0 7-6(3)#329Lidia Encheva

6-1 2-6 7-6(5)#322Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-4 6-2#521Ekaterina Yashina

6-1 6-0#1047Ashmitha Easwaramurthi

7-6(2) 6-2#493Pia Lovric

6-1 6-4#359Valentina Steiner

6-3 3-6 7-6(0)—Polina Skliar

2-6 7-5 6-3#575Laima Vladson

6-4 2-6 6-3#231Berfu Cengiz

6-2 6-3#333Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-2 6-1#636Demi Tran

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KNKayo NishimuraNishimura

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Marie VogtVogtMV

Marie Vogt carries the stronger recent form — Kayo Nishimura's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1571.2%+9.9pp61.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1553.4%+7.0pp60.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.4%+1.8pp51.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/150.2+3.63.8

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.41.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1544.4%+1.5pp45.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1550.0%+3.2pp53.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1545.5%+7.7pp53.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.2%+3.3pp51.5%

Serve · 2–3

71.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+9.9pp61.3%

53.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp60.4%

49.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp51.2%

0.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.63.8

1.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

44.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.5pp45.9%

Pressure · 0–2

50.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp53.2%

45.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.7pp53.2%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp51.5%