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Predictions graded

Miguel Tobon #466Colombia2Nicolas Mejia #115Colombia1

Sets 4-6 · 6-2 · 7-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–357%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolas Mejia · 351 places

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

Structured player data lists Tobon at No. 499, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #466
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

Reached a career-high No. 129 on August 3, 2026. ATP lists grass as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #115
Peak ranking: #129 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Mejia, ranked 115 to Tobon's 466, is the likelier winner on clay, but 1.33 asks more than his record shows: one clay match in the window and 6-7 across his last 13.

The two prices worth a look both go the other way: Tobon to win 2-1 at 5.75 and Tobon to take the second set at 2.6.

Context

The five matches averaged 25.4 total games, with first sets averaging 8.4 games and second sets 9.6, and only one of the five contained a tiebreak. Tobon's clay wins in the window all came in three sets, so his route to a result has tended to be long rather than quick. That keeps a deciding set in play against a higher-ranked opponent, though five matches is a small sample.
- Five clay matches tracked, 29 September to 20 October 2026.
- Scorelines: 2-1 three times, 0-2 once, 1-2 once.
- Average 2.8 sets and 25.4 total games per match; one match with a tiebreak.
It was a fast start and a wobble: 6-1 in the first set, then 2-6, before he closed it 6-4 in the third. The completed win made him 3-2 on clay in the window and is the most recent evidence available before this second-round match. It also fits the pattern of a match that swings rather than one controlled from first ball to last.
- 20 October 2026: won 2-1 against Gonzalo Villanueva (No. 315) on clay, 6-1, 2-6, 6-4.
- Games: 14 won, 11 lost.
- Completed match, not a retirement.
That is the entire clay sample for the higher-ranked player here: one match, 23 games, one tiebreak. Coria was ranked No. 829, far below Mejia, so the straight-set win says more about avoiding an upset than about how Mejia handles a tight clay contest. Even so, the opener required a tiebreak, a reminder that a lower-ranked opponent can hold a set close.
- 20 October 2026: beat Federico Coria (No. 829) 7-6, 6-4 on clay, a completed match.
- Set one 7-6 with a tiebreak; set two 6-4.
- 23 total games across the one tracked clay match.
The wins in that stretch include Michael Zheng (No. 101) on hard court on 6 October 2026, so it is not a run of defeats. Most of those matches came on hard courts, with only the 20 October clay win over Coria on this surface. It leaves the ranking gap to Tobon as the clearest separator, with recent results far less decisive.
- Last 13 tracked matches: 6 wins, 7 losses.
- Losses include Juan Manuel Cerundolo (No. 53), Tallon Griekspoor (No. 60), Camilo Ugo Carabelli (No. 75) and Liam Draxl (No. 197).
- Win over Michael Zheng (No. 101) on 6 October 2026 on hard court.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nicolas Mejia

1.33fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 75.2%

−9.2ppshort

Mejia holds a clear ranking advantage and won his latest clay match, though the clay sample is small.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Mejia holds a clear ranking advantage and won his latest clay match, though the clay sample is small.
- Ranked No. 115 against No. 466 for Tobon.
- Won most recent clay match 7-6, 6-4 against Coria.
- Tobon lost four of five first sets on clay, averaging 3.4 games won.
- Mejia's overall record is 6-7 in the last 13 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNicolas MejiaEstimated chance66%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent clay matches near or above the line, and Tobon's matches often extend to a third set.
- Tobon's five clay matches averaged 25.4 total games and 2.8 sets.
- Three of Tobon's five clay matches went to a third set.
- Tobon's clay sets averaged 8.4 games in set one and 9.6 in set two.
- Mejia's only clay match totaled 23 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance57%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Tobon's first-set record on clay is poor, and Mejia is the higher-ranked player.
- Tobon's clay set-one record is 1-4.
- Tobon averages 3.4 games won and 5.0 lost in clay first sets.
- Mejia won his only clay first set 7-6.
- Mejia is ranked No. 115 against No. 466.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolas MejiaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's clay matches have often needed a deciding set, and a competitive match is likely.
- Three of Tobon's five clay matches went to a third set.
- Tobon's clay scorelines include three 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss.
- Tobon's clay matches average 2.8 sets.
- Mejia's only clay match was a straight-set win.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mejia's ranking and his straight-set clay win point to an advantage in the second set.
- Mejia won his only clay second set 6-4.
- Mejia is ranked No. 115 against No. 466.
- Tobon's clay set-two record is 3-2 but he averages 4.6 games won.
- Tobon lost two of five clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostNicolas MejiaEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent clay sets near 9.5 games, and Mejia's latest match needed a tiebreak.
- Mejia's only clay match included a first-set tiebreak.
- Tobon's clay set-two average total is 9.6 games.
- Tobon had one clay match with a tiebreak in five.
- Tobon's clay set-one average total is 8.4 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Miguel Tobon

7W 8L

6-1 2-6 6-4#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 6-2#177Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(2)#155Tomas Barrios Vera

4-6 6-4 6-1#587Thiago Cigarran

6-2 3-6 6-1#298Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(1) 6-1#209Edas Butvilas

6-3 6-3#896Koray Kirci

6-2 6-4#263Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-1#369Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-2 6-1#618Pietro Orlando Fellin

7-6(4) 6-2#426Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#875Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#180Bernard Tomic

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(2)#699Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#316Tiago Pereira

Nicolas Mejia

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-4#829Federico Coria

6-4 6-4#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-3 6-4#101Michael Zheng

6-4 ret.#217Chun Hsin Tseng

4-1 ret.#344Ugo Blanchet

6-2 6-4#60Tallon Griekspoor

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#197Liam Draxl

7-5 6-4#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 6-0#97Adam Walton

7-5 4-6 6-3#105Henrique Rocha

6-3 3-6 6-2#87Jacob Fearnley

7-6(8) 6-2#26Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-4 6-3#67Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 3-6 6-1#90Marco Trungelliti

7-5 6-2#507Juan Alejandro Hernandez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMiguel TobonTobon

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolas MejiaMejiaNM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.5%+1.2pp58.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.6%+1.0pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.2%—51.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.4+0.74.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.12.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.0%+2.4pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1550.5%+11.5pp39.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1560.2%+3.5pp63.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.8%+1.1pp48.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

59.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp58.3%

66.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp67.6%

51.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—51.8%

3.4Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.74.1

4.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

38.0%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

50.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+11.5pp39.0%

60.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp63.7%

Points · 1–0

49.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp48.7%