ItalyFlorence - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Filip Misolic #495Austria2Izan Almazan Valiente #409Spain1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-3Thu 22 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIzan Almazan Valiente · 86 places

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #495
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Izan Almazan Valiente

Spain

Almazan Valiente, 20, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a best ranking of No. 487 in August 2026 and is currently No. 491.

Current ranking: #409
Peak ranking: #487 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 190 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 07:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Misolic arrives with three straight-set wins in three days, the last over the fourth seed; Almazan Valiente came in as a lucky loser and needed a retirement to reach the second round.

Misolic is the likelier winner, but 1.33 for him, 1.85 for his 2-0 win and 1.40 for straight sets all ask more than his week justifies. The generous prices are on Almazan Valiente: 3.00 to win, 5.25 for 2-0, 2.60 for the first set.

Context

Gill is the only opponent either man has faced in the past eight days, so the split is the cleanest available reference for relative level on this clay: Almazan Valiente won four games against the same seed, while Misolic lost seven games in a two-set win. Both matches sat at Challenger 50 level in Italy within a week of this fixture, which reduces the usual surface and travel noise in a cross-tournament comparison. The limitation is stylistic rather than statistical: Gill's flat, early-strike patterns may simply sit better for Misolic's forehand, and one shared opponent on different days cannot show how Almazan Valiente handles a qualifier playing his fourth match in five days.
- Misolic beat fourth seed Felix Gill 7-6(5) 6-1 in Florence
- Gill beat Almazan Valiente 6-4 6-1 in the Catania second round
- Both matches were played on clay at Challenger 50 level in Italy in the same fortnight
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Misolic had to qualify at a Challenger 50 while ranked No. 495, and three straight-sets wins in three days is his longest run of the season since his ranking fell from a February career high of No. 76. The seed he removed is the useful part for this fixture, because Gill, No. 227, is the only top-250 opponent he has beaten in the stretch and had beaten Almazan Valiente a week earlier. The caveat sits in the qualifying rounds: Recek (No. 844) and Siniakov (No. 496) never tested him, and Gill took him to a first-set tiebreak, the one set this week he did not win by a wide margin.
- Misolic beat Dominik Recek 6-2 6-2 and Daniel Siniakov 6-3 6-1 to come through qualifying without losing a set
- He beat fourth seed Felix Gill, ranked No. 227, 7-6(5) 6-1 in the first round
- He is playing the tournament as a qualifier while ranked No. 495
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Almazan Valiente is in the round of 16 without having qualified and without having finished a match as a winner in October, so his current level over a full three-set distance is essentially unmeasured. The entry route matters as much as the results: he lost his final qualifying round to a fellow Spaniard ranked No. 484, so his place in the draw came from a withdrawal elsewhere rather than from a win of his own. The counterweight is freshness, since a lost qualifier and two shortened matches leave him with far fewer games in his legs than an opponent who has played three straight-sets matches in three days on the same clay.
- Marti Pujolras, No. 484, beat him 7-6(3) 6-1 in the final qualifying round on 19 October
- He took Ivanov's first-round place in the main draw as a lucky loser
- Ivanov retired at 6-3 3-0 after a medical timeout for a leg and back problem
- Cuenin retired at 4-3 in the third set in Catania
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Misolic's set-level record suggests his wins tend to be clean and his losses tend to be long.
That shape points to a quick two-set finish when he wins, matching his 20.4-game average, but it also flags the risk: three of his four clay defeats in the window went the distance. The clean scorelines describe his wins rather than a habit of short matches either way.
- Misolic's 10 tracked clay matches from 8 September to 20 October 2026 produced scorelines of six 2-0 wins, one 0-2 loss and three 1-2 losses.
- He won 8 of 10 second sets in that sample, averaging 5.6 games won and 2.8 lost.
- His clay matches averaged 20.4 total games and 2.3 sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic has won four of six recent clay matches, all in straight sets, and he beat Felix Gill, who also beat Almazan Valiente this month.
- Misolic is 6-4 on clay in the tracked sample and 4-2 in his last six completed clay matches.
- His last six completed clay matches give him a +19 game margin; Almazan Valiente is -13 over the same span.
- Misolic beat Felix Gill 7-6(5) 6-1 in Florence; Almazan Valiente lost to Gill 6-4 6-1 in Catania.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFilip MisolicEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's second-set games average is low, and he has often won the set by a wide margin.
- Misolic's clay second sets average 8.4 total games; Almazan Valiente's average 8.38.
- Misolic's second-set game average is 5.6 won and 2.8 lost.
- Almazan Valiente has no second-set tiebreaks in thirteen clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Misolic's recent wins have finished quickly, and his second-set games average is low.
- Misolic's clay matches average 20.4 total games; Almazan Valiente's average 20.0.
- Misolic's recent straight-set wins have often finished below 20 games.
- Almazan Valiente's second-set games average is 4.15 won and 4.23 lost.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages sit just below the line, and many sets finish 6-3 or 6-2.
- Misolic's clay first sets average 9.3 total games; Almazan Valiente's average 9.46.
- Misolic has one tiebreak in ten clay first sets; Almazan Valiente has two in thirteen.
- Both players' first-set games won averages are close to five.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Most tracked clay matches for both players ended in straight sets, including Misolic's recent wins.
- Seven of Misolic's ten clay matches and ten of Almazan Valiente's thirteen ended in straight sets.
- Misolic's recent three wins were all 2-0.
- Almazan Valiente has lost four of five clay matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Misolic has been much stronger in second sets on clay, winning eight of ten and allowing few games.
- Misolic has won 8 of 10 clay second sets, averaging 5.6 games won and 2.8 lost.
- Almazan Valiente has won 7 of 13 clay second sets.
- Misolic won five of six recent second sets; Almazan Valiente lost four of six.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFilip MisolicEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic has started clay matches strongly and won four of six recent first sets, while Almazan Valiente has lost four of six.
- Misolic has won 7 of 10 clay first sets; Almazan Valiente has won 8 of 13.
- Misolic won four of six recent first sets; Almazan Valiente lost four of six.
- Misolic's first-set game average is 4.9 won and 4.4 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFilip MisolicEstimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' clay matches, and Misolic's recent wins were mostly short sets.
- Misolic has two tiebreaks in ten clay matches; Almazan Valiente has two in thirteen.
- Most sets for both players on clay have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Almazan Valiente has no second-set tiebreaks in thirteen clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Filip Misolic

6W 9L

7-6(5) 6-1#227Felix Gill 6-3 6-1#496Daniel Siniakov 6-2 6-2#844Dominik Recek

6-1 6-2#343Patrick Schoen

6-2 6-0—Tiago Esculcas

6-4 3-1 ret.#616Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#491Sebastian Gima

7-5 6-1#661Imanol Lopez Morillo

4-6 7-5 6-4#678Matyas Cerny

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#195Mika Brunold

6-4 6-0#292Henri Squire

6-4 6-3 7-5#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-1 1-1 ret.#67Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#231Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 6-3 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Izan Almazan Valiente

10W 5L

6-3 3-0 ret.#457Ivan Ivanov

7-6(3) 6-1#484Alex Marti Pujolras 6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#601Adrian Andreev

6-4 6-1#227Felix Gill

6-7(4) 6-3 4-3 ret.#310Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-2#601Adrian Andreev

7-5 0-6 6-2#234Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-4#446Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 7-5#721George Lazarov

6-2 6-3#680Stefan Popovic

6-4 6-3#314Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-4 6-3#359Franco Agamenone

6-1 6-1#502Gianmarco Ferrari

6-3 6-1#707Matteo Covato

1-6 6-4 6-2#443Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilip MisolicMisolic

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Izan Almazan ValienteValienteIV

Izan Almazan Valiente carries the stronger recent form — Filip Misolic's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In55.9%+8.6pp64.5%

1st Serve Won66.4%+0.9pp65.5%

2nd Serve Won46.4%+4.2pp50.6%

Aces / Match3.1+1.61.5

Double Faults / Match3.10.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.2%+3.5pp45.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted45.7%+1.0pp44.7%

Break Pts Saved59.8%+7.5pp52.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+2.5pp52.6%

Serve · 2–3

55.9%1st Serve In+8.6pp64.5%

66.4%1st Serve Won+0.9pp65.5%

46.4%2nd Serve Won+4.2pp50.6%

3.1Aces / Match+1.61.5

3.1Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

42.2%Return Pts Won+3.5pp45.7%

Pressure · 2–0

45.7%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp44.7%

59.8%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp52.3%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+2.5pp52.6%

Filip Misolic

Izan Almazan Valiente

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Izan Almazan Valiente

Izan Almazan Valiente

Izan Almazan Valiente 2-0

Under 2.5

Filip Misolic

Under 20.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Filip Misolic

Izan Almazan Valiente

Stat Battle