ItalyFlorence - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Nedic #237Bosnia & Herzegovina0Alex Marti Pujolras #484Spain2

Sets 1-6 · 2-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 10:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 247 places

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Age 21 and currently ranked No. 246, with a published career high of No. 237. Most of his recorded matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #237
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #484
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 07:57 · Europe/Bucharest

A seeded direct entrant against a qualifier on his third straight day should favour Andrej Nedic, and he is the likelier winner in ordinary terms.

The 1.36 for him to win, the 1.44 for him to take the opening set and the 1.90 for a 2-0 victory all ask more than his clay record supports, so none of those three prices is worth taking.

Context

Marti Pujolras has spent seven sets on court across 18-, including the three-setter against Basile, while Nedic played two sets in one match after a six-day break. In the same three-day window the qualifier therefore carries roughly three times the match load of the seed, and that is the most concrete asymmetry in a round of 16 between two clay-court players with similar recent records (Nedic 8-7, Marti Pujolras 9-6 over their last 15 clay matches). The counterweight is that two of Marti Pujolras's three wins came in straight sets, so his extra work amounts to one long match rather than a week of attrition, and neither player has a reported physical problem.
- Nedic is the eighth seed and beat Gabriele Piraino 6-2 6-2 in the first round .
- Marti Pujolras qualified with straight-set wins over Jakub Vrba on 18 October and Izan Almazan Valiente .
- He beat Pierluigi Basile 6-4 1-6 6-3, playing a third consecutive day.
- The last-16 match is listed on clay in Florence for 22 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:55 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match listingwww.flashscore.com.au · 20 Oct 2026
Nedic's 14-match clay sample from 21 July to 20 October splits into six 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and five matches that ran to a deciding set. His 9-5 first-set record explains the fast starts; the 2-1 and 1-2 results show the same matches often stay open. Against a qualifier on his third straight day, that is a caution rather than a guarantee of a quick finish.
- Nedic's 14 completed clay matches from 21 July to 20 October include scorelines of 2-0 six times, 0-2 three times, 2-1 twice and 1-2 three times.
- He won the first set in 9 of those 14 matches and lost it in 5.
- He has played a tiebreak in 6 of the 14 matches.
Across 15 clay matches from 18 August to 20 October, Marti Pujolras took the opening set 9-6 but the second 11-4, giving up 4.8 games in first sets against 3.87 in second sets. His second sets have produced three tiebreaks against five in the first. That record is the main argument against a straightforward Nedic win and suggests the qualifier can stay in the match after a slow start.
- Marti Pujolras's 15 completed clay matches from 18 August to 20 October show a 9-6 first-set record and an 11-4 second-set record.
- He averaged 5.4 games won and 4.8 lost in first sets, and 5.2 won and 3.87 lost in second sets.
- Five of his first sets and three of his second sets reached a tiebreak.
The tier explains the field rather than either player's form: at ATP 50 level the eighth seed sits at No. 237 and the qualifying draw reaches past No. 400, which is how a 27-year-old ranked No. 484 is in the last 16 at all. It also sets the stakes, with modest ranking points and prize money attached to a quarter-final place, so neither player is defending a significant result here. The limitation is that tier labels describe prize money and points, not the standard of a particular match, and the two players' recent clay records are close despite the ranking gap.
- Florence is listed as an ATP 50 Challenger on the week-42 entry list.
- The same week's other Challengers carried larger labels: Lisbon 100, Guangzhou 75, Fort Worth 75 and Cali 75.
- Nedic is ranked No. 237 and Marti Pujolras No. 484.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:55 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Andrej Nedic

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

−11.5ppshort

Nedic's higher ranking, stronger level and fresher condition make him the clearer match favourite.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Andrej Nedic

1.44fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 69.4%

−12.4ppshort

Nedic's higher ranking and solid opening-set record give him a slight edge.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Andrej Nedic 2-0

1.90fair 2.56

BetBugs 39% · Market 52.6%

−13.6ppshort

Nedic's higher ranking and comfortable opener support a straight-set win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Nedic's higher ranking, stronger level and fresher condition make him the clearer match favourite.
- Nedic is ranked 237 and seeded eighth; Marti Pujolras is ranked 484.
- Nedic is 8-6 on clay over his last 14 completed matches; Marti Pujolras is 9-6 over 15.
- Nedic won his first round 6-2 6-2 after a six-day break; Marti Pujolras has played on each of the last three days.
- Nedic's set1 record is 9-5 and set2 8-6 on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marti Pujolras's opening sets have often run past nine games.
- Marti Pujolras's first sets average 10.2 games; Nedic's average 9.29.
- Marti Pujolras has had five first-set tiebreaks in 15; Nedic three in 14.
- Nedic's set1 games won and lost averages sum to 9.29.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set game totals for both players usually finish under ten.
- Nedic's second sets average 9.29 games; Marti Pujolras's average 9.07.
- Marti Pujolras's second-set games won and lost averages sum to 9.07.
- Neither player has a high second-set tiebreak count.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay totals sit around 21.5 games, with enough three-set matches to lean slightly over.
- Nedic's clay matches average 21.8 total games; Marti Pujolras's average 21.7.
- Nedic has had five three-set matches in 14; Marti Pujolras four in 15.
- Their combined set1 average is just under 10 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent clay records.
- Nedic has won 2-0 six times and lost 0-2 three times in 14 clay matches.
- Marti Pujolras has won 2-0 eight times and lost 0-2 three times in 15.
- Nedic's average match length is 2.36 sets; Marti Pujolras's is 2.27.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Nedic's higher ranking and solid opening-set record give him a slight edge.
- Nedic has won the first set in 9 of 14 clay matches; Marti Pujolras in 9 of 15.
- Nedic's set1 games average is 5.07 won and 4.21 lost.
- Nedic opened with a 6-2 6-2 win in Florence.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nedic's fresher condition and higher level give him a narrow edge despite Marti Pujolras's stronger second-set record.
- Nedic has won the second set in 8 of 14 clay matches; Marti Pujolras in 11 of 15.
- Nedic's set2 games average is 4.93 won and 4.36 lost.
- Marti Pujolras has played three straight days and a three-set match on 20 October.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent clay matches have avoided a tiebreak.
- Nedic has had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 clay matches; Marti Pujolras in 6 of 15.
- Their combined first-set tiebreaks are eight.
- Their combined second-set tiebreaks are five.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Andrej Nedic

8W 7L

6-2 6-2#392Gabriele Piraino

6-3 6-4#323Alejo Sanchez Quilez

7-6(2) 6-3#301Filippo Romano

6-1 7-6(1)#343Patrick Schoen

4-6 6-2 6-1#407Johan Nikles

7-6(6) 6-3#261Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-3 6-3#334Laurent Lokoli

6-0 6-0—Filippo Francesco Garbero

2-6 6-4 6-3#350Juan Estevez

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#447Carlos Taberner

3-6 6-4 6-4#646Ergi Kirkin

7-6(3) 6-2#271Hynek Barton

4-6 6-2 6-0#161Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(2)#281Sumit Nagal

Alex Marti Pujolras

9W 6L

6-4 1-6 6-3#514Pierluigi Basile 7-6(3) 6-1#409Izan Almazan Valiente 6-4 7-5—Jakub Vrba

6-3 6-4#631Kai Wehnelt

6-2 6-1#660John Sperle

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 6-1#811Filippo Moroni

7-6(6) 1-6 7-6(5)#640Ignacio Parisca

7-5 7-6(5)#737Nico Hipfl

6-4 6-3#273Stefano Napolitano

6-1 6-1#555Dimitris Sakellaridis

7-6(7) 7-6(8)#509Maximo Zeitune

6-3 6-0#304Oriol Roca Batalla

6-0 6-1—Oleg Covian Roca de Togores

6-1 3-6 6-1#360Dimitar Kuzmanov

7-6(2) 6-3#440Gerard Campana Lee

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ANAndrej NedicNedic

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Alex Marti PujolrasPujolrasAP

Alex Marti Pujolras carries the stronger recent form — Andrej Nedic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.6%+3.5pp63.1%

1st Serve Won64.1%+3.2pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won48.2%+2.2pp46.0%

Aces / Match1.4+1.12.5

Double Faults / Match2.52.4 fewer4.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.5%—42.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted42.4%—42.7%

Break Pts Saved58.5%+3.7pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.1pp51.0%

Serve · 2–3

59.6%1st Serve In+3.5pp63.1%

64.1%1st Serve Won+3.2pp67.3%

48.2%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp46.0%

1.4Aces / Match+1.12.5

2.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.5%Return Pts Won—42.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

42.4%Break Pts Converted—42.7%

58.5%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.1pp51.0%