KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Terence Atmane #99France2Rinky Hijikata #85Australia0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Tue 20 Oct 2026, 06:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions8–280%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRinky Hijikata · 14 places

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 on April 13, 2026. The reviewed public results did not establish a reliable preferred-surface label or a current active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #99
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

Hijikata reached his career-high singles ranking of No. 62 on 26 August 2024. Official ITF profile data lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #85
Peak ranking: #62 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 04:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Two men who have never met, both late into the Almaty draw, and the better hard-court record belongs to the one with the fitness question.

Atmane has won six of ten opening sets on hard, but retired twice inside eight days and has not finished a match since 29 September. Hijikata's 42.4% set rate makes him an uncomfortable favourite at 1.80; Atmane at 2.00 and straight sets at 1.50 are the quotes that hold up.

Context

Two mid-match retirements inside eight days are the central open question around Atmane, because he has not completed a match since 29 September and walks into a tour-level first round without a finished win behind him. Both retirements came deep in the third set, at 5-3 against Tomic and 5-5 against Ymer, which points to a problem at the back end of matches rather than a single accident. He is entered and scheduled to play, so this is a documented pattern rather than a confirmed absence. If the opener against Hijikata runs long, the closing games are where the previous fortnight becomes directly relevant.
- Atmane retired against Bernard Tomic on 5 October 2026 at 6-3 4-6 5-3 in Shanghai qualifying
- Atmane retired against Elias Ymer on 30 September 2026 at 4-6 7-5 5-5
- His last completed match was a 6-4 6-4 win over Enzo Aguiard on 29 September 2026
- He is entered in the Almaty first round, so this is a record of retirements rather than a withdrawal
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:21 · Europe/Bucharest
The incident was Atmane's last competitive appearance before Almaty, so the first round is his first match since the apology and the point penalty rather than a default. His own statement tied the outburst to ranking pressure, which sits alongside a season that has taken him from a career-high No. 41 in April 2026 to No. 99. That is his account of the pressure he was under, not evidence of how he will play. It does make this opener the first look at how he competes since the episode, with the conduct case still being discussed publicly in the days before the match.
- Atmane threw his racket toward spectators in Shanghai qualifying against Bernard Tomic
- The racket hit the barrier, no injury was reported and he received a point penalty rather than a default
- He apologised in a written statement on 6 October 2026
- The apology said ranking pressure did not excuse his behaviour
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Atmane's opening sets have been the most dependable part of his hard-court season.
Atmane's first sets have been his most dependable passage: six wins from ten and a game-per-set edge. Hijikata has lost eight of thirteen first sets on the same surface, so an early deficit would put him where he has been most often. Set one is the clearest separation between them.
- Atmane: 10 completed hard best-of-3 matches, 27 July to 29 September 2026
- Set 1 record 6-4, with 5.4 games won to 4.4 lost per set
- Five of the ten matches contained a tiebreak
Hijikata's hard-court season has leaned heavily on straight-set results at both ends.
Six 0-2 defeats against four 2-0 wins describe matches that rarely stretch: only three of his thirteen went the distance. His set-one and set-two game averages both sit under five won. That pattern is why the straight-sets price holds up better than the three-set one.
- Hijikata: 13 completed hard best-of-3 matches, 28 July to 7 October 2026
- Scorelines: six 0-2, four 2-0, two 2-1, one 1-2
- Set 1 games 4.46 won to 5.23 lost; set 2 4.54 to 5.31

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Atmane has the stronger hard-court set record and a slightly better recent level, while Hijikata has struggled to win sets on this surface.
- Atmane 6-5 on hard; Hijikata 6-8
- Atmane set1 6-4 and set2 5-5 in 10 hard best-of-3 matches
- Atmane averages 5.4 games won to 4.4 lost per set
- Hijikata has won 42.4% of sets and 46.2% of games on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTerence AtmaneEstimated chance54%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's second sets average more than eleven games with frequent tiebreaks, lifting the combined figure above ten.
- Atmane set2 average 11.2 games
- Atmane set2 tiebreaks 5/10
- Hijikata set2 average 9.85 games
- Combined set2 average 10.4 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most combined matches finish in straight sets, and two-set totals usually stay below twenty-three games.
- Combined 17 of 23 matches finished 2-0
- Hijikata total games average 21.85
- Atmane total games average 23.8
- Atmane set2 average 11.2 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average close to ten games in first sets, with Atmane slightly above the line.
- Atmane set1 average 9.8 games
- Hijikata set1 average 9.69 games
- Atmane set1 tiebreaks 1/10
- Hijikata set1 tiebreaks 2/13
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's recent game margins are positive overall, while Hijikata's are clearly negative.
- Atmane recent margins +4,+7,0,-4,-2,+4
- Atmane total +9 across six hard matches
- Hijikata recent margins -5,-5,+7,-6,+3,-5
- Hijikata total -11
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTerence Atmane -0.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Most of the combined hard best-of-3 matches finished in straight sets.
- Combined 17 of 23 matches finished 2-0
- Atmane two-set rate 7/10
- Hijikata two-set rate 10/13
- Combined average 2.26 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane has won most of his first sets on hard and holds a clear games lead in them, while Hijikata has lost more first sets than he has won.
- Atmane set1 6-4 in 10 hard best-of-3 matches
- Atmane set1 games 5.4 won, 4.4 lost
- Hijikata set1 5-8
- Hijikata set1 games 4.46 won, 5.23 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTerence AtmaneEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane has split his hard-court second sets, while Hijikata has lost more of his and averages fewer games in them.
- Atmane set2 5-5
- Hijikata set2 6-7
- Atmane set2 games 5.6 won, 5.6 lost
- Hijikata set2 games 4.54 won, 5.31 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTerence AtmaneEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set tiebreaks are rare for both players, and less than half of their combined hard matches contained one.
- Combined 10 of 23 matches had a tiebreak
- Atmane 5/10
- Hijikata 5/13
- Atmane set2 tiebreaks 5/10
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Terence Atmane: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Terence Atmane matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Terence Atmane4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jun·ATP Eastbourne

#84Gabriel Diallo2-1#53Terence Atmane

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·58%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Eastbourne

#84Gabriel Diallo2-1#53Terence Atmane

Terence Atmane to win

58%probability

Gabriel Diallo won

Missed

25 May·ATP Roland Garros

#854Thanasi Kokkinakis3-2#51Terence Atmane

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#854Thanasi Kokkinakis3-2#51Terence Atmane

Terence Atmane to win

65%probability

Thanasi Kokkinakis won

Missed

14 May·Bordeaux - France

#109Titouan Droguet2-1#51Terence Atmane

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·62%

Missed

14 May 2026

Bordeaux - France

#109Titouan Droguet2-1#51Terence Atmane

Terence Atmane to win

62%probability

Titouan Droguet won

Missed

7 Apr·ATP

#45Terence Atmane2-0#54Ethan Quinn

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·55%

Matched

7 Apr 2026

ATP

#45Terence Atmane2-0#54Ethan Quinn

Terence Atmane to win

55%probability

Terence Atmane won

Matched

Previous match context available

Terence Atmane

7W 8L

6-3 4-6 5-3 ret.#185Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 5-5 ret.#192Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#439Enzo Aguiard

6-1 6-4#631Dominik Palan

3-6 7-6(9) 6-4#60Jaime Faria

6-7(5) 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5#49Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 7-6(4)#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

3-1 ret.#134Marton Fucsovics

7-5 6-4#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 7-6(3)#27Karen Khachanov

6-3 2-6 6-2#158Jack Draper

6-3 7-6(6)#30Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 6-3 6-4#10Frances Tiafoe

7-6(6) 6-1 4-6 6-4#10Frances Tiafoe

Rinky Hijikata

6W 9L

7-5 6-3#79Roman Safiullin

6-4 6-3#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-3#23Andrey Rublev

7-6(4) 6-4#126Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5#5Felix Auger Aliassime

6-1 6-1#92Benjamin Bonzi

3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#50Raphael Collignon

6-4 7-6(2)#159Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-4#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#21Luciano Darderi

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#254Gael Monfils

7-6(3) 6-3#49Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

2-6 6-3 6-2#42Denis Shapovalov

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#95Jesper De Jong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TATerence AtmaneAtmane

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Rinky HijikataHijikataRH

Terence Atmane carries the stronger recent form — Rinky Hijikata's route runs through return.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.1%+4.2pp56.9%

1st Serve Won76.2%+8.1pp68.1%

2nd Serve Won51.9%—52.0%

Aces / Match8.3+4.14.2

Double Faults / Match3.50.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won30.7%+5.7pp36.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.9%+1.9pp42.0%

Break Pts Saved65.9%+11.2pp54.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.6%+0.9pp48.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.1%1st Serve In+4.2pp56.9%

76.2%1st Serve Won+8.1pp68.1%

51.9%2nd Serve Won—52.0%

8.3Aces / Match+4.14.2

3.5Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

30.7%Return Pts Won+5.7pp36.4%

Pressure · 2–0

43.9%Break Pts Converted+1.9pp42.0%

65.9%Break Pts Saved+11.2pp54.7%

Points · 1–0

49.6%Total Pts Won+0.9pp48.7%

Terence Atmane

Rinky Hijikata

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Terence Atmane

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Terence Atmane

Rinky Hijikata

Stat Battle