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Predictions graded

Cosme Rolland De Ravel #781France2Ozan Baris #402United States0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Tue 20 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOzan Baris · 379 places

Cosme Rolland De Ravel

France

The French player came through US college tennis at Texas Christian University and won the M25 in Austin as a qualifier in October 2026. Ranked No. 781, his 2026 hard-court results are markedly better than his clay record.

Current ranking: #781
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Ozan Baris

United States

The 22-year-old American is right-handed and 185 cm tall. His supplied current ranking of No. 486 matches the career high listed by Sofascore.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #486
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Baris is the higher-ranked player and the likelier winner, but he meets a wildcard on an eight-match hard-court run who has played seven singles matches in seven days.

Baris's 6-9 first-set record and no completed match since 28 September keep the first round open. The 1.6 price asks for a 62.5% chance; his case is closer to 54%, so that quote is not worthwhile.

Context

Seven straight wins on hard courts, including a three-set semi-final and a final in which he lost the opening set, is the only current competitive evidence behind a ranking of No. 781. The win over Gray, ranked near No. 290, is the strongest result of that run and the clearest recent form line in this match, since nothing comparable sits in his opponent's last six weeks. The limitation is level: an M25 field in Texas sits well below a Challenger main draw, and most of the seven opponents were ranked outside the top 300 or unranked.
- Beat top seed Alastair Gray 5-7 6-3 6-3 in the Austin M25 final
- Reached the main draw through qualifying and won seven matches in seven days
- Beat eighth seed Lui Maxted 6-4 6-7(2) 6-2 in the semi-final
- The Austin title was the second in two years for a Texas Christian University player
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest
His first-set record is the sharpest split in an eight-match hard-court run that also produced five straight-set wins.
That opening-set record is useful in a first-round match where early breaks can shape a set. If Rolland de Ravel starts quickly again, he can put the higher-ranked player under pressure from the first games. The record covers only eight completed matches and excludes one retirement, so it is a narrow base rather than a proven habit.
- Won seven of eight first sets in completed hard-court matches from 23 September to 18 October 2026
- Averaged 6.0 games won and 4.0 games lost in those opening sets
- One first-set tiebreak across the eight matches
- One retirement excluded from the eight-match sample
The match included a 6-0 second set for Baris before Shick took the decider.
That 28 September result is the latest completed match on Baris's record, leaving a 22-day gap before this first round. The 6-0 second set shows he can respond after losing a tight opener, but the 3-6 decider also shows the match slipped away. One result does not establish a pattern, so it is a timing question rather than proof of poor form.
- Lost 6-7, 6-0, 3-6 to Braden Shick on 28 September 2026
- Shick was ranked No. 208 at the time
- The match was played on an indoor hard court

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ozan Baris

1.60fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 62.5%

−8.5ppshort

Baris sits several hundred ranking places higher with a full hard-court sample, and he meets an opponent arriving straight off a seven-day title run.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Baris sits several hundred ranking places higher with a full hard-court sample, and he meets an opponent arriving straight off a seven-day title run.
- ATP No. 402 vs No. 781; 9-6 in 15 hard-court matches (all of his recent sample)
- First-serve points won 71.9%, games won 51.2%, total points won 51.3%
- Opponent played seven singles matches on seven consecutive days before this first round
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance54%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets have averaged fewer than nine games, with breaks more common than tiebreaks.
- Rolland de Ravel second sets average 8.63 total games
- Baris second sets average 9.0 total games
- One second-set tiebreak each in the samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's opening sets have tended to be short, and tiebreaks have been rare for both players.
- Baris first sets average 8.87 total games (4.13 won, 4.73 lost)
- Rolland de Ravel first sets average 10.0 total games (6.0 won, 4.0 lost)
- Just one tiebreak in each player's first-set sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' matches average around 22 games, so the total sits close to the line without a clear lean either way.
- Rolland de Ravel averages 21.6 games per hard-court match
- Baris averages 22.4 games per hard-court match over 15 matches
- Roughly 9.1 games per set for each player
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent records lean toward straight-sets finishes, and Baris's serve numbers should limit the number of long sets.
- Rolland de Ravel: five of eight hard-court matches finished 2-0 (average 2.38 sets)
- Baris: eight of 15 matches finished in straight sets (average 2.47 sets)
- Both players average under 2.5 sets per match in their samples
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Baris has been his most reliable in the second set, which fits a player who settles into matches after slow starts.
- 9-6 in second sets in 15 hard-court matches; 4.8 games won vs 4.2 lost
- Total second-set games average 9.0
- Sample span 30 July to 28 September, so no match play in the last three weeks
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
His recent hard-court matches have started strongly, while Baris has lost more opening sets than he has won.
- Set one record 7-1 in eight hard-court matches; 6.0 games won vs 4.0 lost in the opening set
- Baris is 6-9 in first sets across his 15 hard-court matches, averaging 4.13 games won
- Rolland de Ravel's opening sets included just one tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCosme Rolland De RavelEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent hard-court matches, with sets usually decided by a break.
- Rolland de Ravel: two of eight hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Baris: two of 15 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- One first-set and one second-set tiebreak each across the entire samples
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Prediction history

Ozan Baris: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Ozan Baris matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ozan Baris5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#696Ozan Baris0-2#330Tyler Zink

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#696Ozan Baris0-2#330Tyler Zink

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Tyler Zink won

Missed

4 Jul·Cary - USA

#895Timo Legout2-0#696Ozan Baris

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·62%

Missed

4 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#895Timo Legout2-0#696Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris to win

62%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

2 Jul·Cary - USA

#502Blake Ellis0-2#696Ozan Baris

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·62%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#502Blake Ellis0-2#696Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris to win

62%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

1 Jul·Cary - USA

#696Ozan Baris2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#696Ozan Baris2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

29 Jun·Cary - USA

#708Ozan Baris2-0#420James Kent Trotter

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#708Ozan Baris2-0#420James Kent Trotter

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

Cosme Rolland De Ravel

11W 4L

5-7 6-3 6-3#283Alastair Gray

6-4 6-7(2) 6-2#380Lui Maxted

6-3 6-2#848Benjamin Willwerth

6-3 6-1—Mason Vaughan

6-4 2-6 6-1#335Raphael Perot

7-6(2) 6-2—Hiroki Sakagawa

6-2 6-1—Jeremiah Braswell

6-1 3-1 ret.—Antonin Witz

6-3 6-3—Max Sheldon

6-4 6-1#601Adrian Andreev

6-3 6-1#506Jack Loge

6-2 6-1—Tim Hohmann

7-5 7-6(5)#529Alexander Weis

6-1 6-3—Gabriele Vulpitta

6-4 6-2—Louis Larue

Ozan Baris

9W 6L

7-6(4) 0-6 6-3#208Braden Shick

6-1 6-3#266Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1-6 6-3 6-4#696Alex Rybakov

6-1 6-2#589Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 4-6 6-4#462Evan Zhu

6-4 4-6 6-2#875Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#209Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#233Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#750Vignesh Gogineni

2-6 6-3 6-4#333Johannus Monday

6-3 6-1#889Maxwell Exsted

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#658Oliver Bonding

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CRCosme Rolland De RavelRavel

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Ozan BarisBarisOB

Cosme Rolland De Ravel carries the stronger recent form — Ozan Baris's route runs through serve.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.1%—61.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1568.1%+3.8pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%—53.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.2+1.43.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.90.8 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.9%+5.0pp38.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.0%+1.8pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1561.4%+3.8pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.9%+1.6pp51.3%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

62.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—61.4%

68.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp71.9%

52.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—53.2%

2.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.43.6

2.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

43.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.0pp38.9%

Pressure · 2–0

43.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp41.2%

61.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp51.3%