ItalyFlorence - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Andrej Nedic #244Bosnia & Herzegovina2Gabriele Piraino #392Italy0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Tue 20 Oct 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–186%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 148 places

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Age 21 and currently ranked No. 246, with a published career high of No. 237. Most of his recorded matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #244
Peak ranking: #237
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Gabriele Piraino

Italy

Italian left-hander, born November 12, 2003. ATP lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 345, reached in August 2025.

Current ranking: #392
Peak ranking: #345 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 06:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players with identical 7-7 clay records meet in the Florence first round, where a 148-place ranking gap runs into Piraino's stronger first-set record.

Nedic is the likelier winner, but only narrowly. Piraino at 3.00 is the one quoted price that offers something; Nedic at 1.33 asks far more than his recent results support.

Context

This was Nedic's most recent completed match and it sits five days before Florence: he held no third set or tie-break to point to and lost to an opponent who had already played qualifying matches on the same clay. That fixes the level he brings into a peer-level first round rather than leaving it to a season-long record. Sánchez Quílez went on to the quarter-finals, so the defeat came against a player on a run rather than a flat opponent. The limitation is that it followed a month without competition, so it captures a player rebuilding rhythm rather than a settled level.
- Nedic beat Filippo Romano 7-6(2) 6-3 in the Maia first round on 13 October 2026.
- Alejo Sánchez Quílez beat Nedic 6-3 6-4 in the Maia second round .
- Sánchez Quílez entered Maia through qualifying and was ranked No. 375 against Nedic's No. 244.
- The win put Sánchez Quílez into the Maia quarter-finals, his fourth quarter-final at Challenger level in 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 06:17 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match pagewww.flashscore.in · 18 Oct 2026
Alternate acceptance at an Italian Challenger places Piraino outside the direct-entry cut at a home event, and his reward was a seed who beat him for the loss of three games. It is the cleanest recent measure of the distance between his No. 392 ranking and the front of a Challenger draw, and it matters here because Nedic at No. 244 sits much closer to Gill's level than to Piraino's. The limitation is the draw: Gill is a clay specialist ranked 170 places higher, so that scoreline says more about the mismatch than about how Piraino handles a similar-ranked opponent.
- Piraino was an alternate entrant in the Catania main draw.
- Felix Gill, the fourth seed and No. 222, beat Piraino 6-2 6-1 in the Catania first round .
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 06:17 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore player pagewww.flashscore.com · 12 Oct 2026
The Clarke win is the only recent result in which Piraino beat a player ranked at or above Nedic's level, and he did it in straight sets on clay, which is the relevant reference for this first round. Two days later he lost in straight sets to a No. 319 opponent, so the week reads as range rather than as a slide or an upturn. It also shows he can win a main-draw match at this tier without a protected entry. The limitation is the base: two matches in one week, against opponents who do not resemble the tall right-hander across the net here.
- Piraino beat Jay Clarke (No. 240) 6-3 6-1 at the Palermo Challenger on 6 October 2026.
- Piraino lost 6-4 6-3 to Enrico Dalla Valle (No. 319) at the same event .
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 06:17 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore player pagewww.flashscore.com · 8 Oct 2026
That is the strongest name in Nedic's recent record and it came on the same surface, after he lost the opening set 2-6 and took the decider on a tiebreak. It supports his case as the likelier winner here, since neither of his two other recent wins came against a top-150 player. The caveat is that it is one match from 1 September, and his results since, including the Maia defeat, have been mixed.
- Nedic beat Stefanos Sakellaridis, ranked No. 135, 2-6 6-3 7-6(4) on clay on 1 September 2026.
- Sakellaridis is the highest-ranked opponent in Nedic's six listed recent matches.
- The match lasted three sets, with Nedic winning 15 games to 15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nedic's higher ranking and stronger wins give him a narrow advantage, though the clay records are level.
- Nedic is ranked No. 244; Piraino is No. 392.
- Both are 7-7 across 14 clay matches tracked.
- Nedic is 3-3 in his last six completed matches; Piraino is 2-4.
- Nedic beat No. 135 Sakellaridis on clay in September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrej NedicEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined match average sits just above 21.5, and three-set matches add length.
- Nedic averages 22.0 total games per clay match.
- Piraino averages 21.2 total games per clay match.
- Nedic has gone three sets in 5 of 14 clay matches.
- Piraino has gone three sets in 4 of 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average is below 9.5, and Piraino's first sets rarely reach a tiebreak.
- Nedic's first sets average 9.36 total games.
- Piraino's first sets average 9.29 total games.
- Nedic has had 3 first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Piraino has had no first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both averages sit below 2.5 sets, with straight-set results more common.
- Nedic has gone three sets in 5 of 14 clay matches.
- Piraino has gone three sets in 4 of 14 clay matches.
- Nedic averages 2.36 sets per match.
- Piraino averages 2.29 sets per match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nedic's ranking advantage is partly offset by Piraino's stronger first-set record.
- Nedic has won 8 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Piraino has won 9 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Nedic is ranked No. 244; Piraino is No. 392.
- Nedic averages 4.86 games won in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrej NedicEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piraino has had only two tiebreak matches in 14, which pulls the match total down.
- Nedic had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 clay matches.
- Piraino had a tiebreak in 2 of 14 clay matches.
- Nedic had 3 first-set tiebreaks; Piraino had none.
- Piraino had 2 second-set tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Andrej Nedic

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#375Alejo Sanchez Quilez

7-6(2) 6-3#306Filippo Romano

6-1 7-6(1)#368Patrick Schoen

4-6 6-2 6-1#399Johan Nikles

7-6(6) 6-3#270Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-3 6-3#348Laurent Lokoli

6-0 6-0—Filippo Francesco Garbero

2-6 6-4 6-3#360Juan Estevez

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#361Carlos Taberner

3-6 6-4 6-4#656Ergi Kirkin

7-6(3) 6-2#288Hynek Barton

4-6 6-2 6-0#164Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(2)#253Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#319Enrico Dalla Valle

Gabriele Piraino

7W 8L

6-2 6-1#222Felix Gill

6-4 6-3#319Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 6-1#240Jay Clarke

5-7 6-2 7-5#320Samuele Pieri

6-2 6-1#179Laslo Djere

7-5 6-3#270Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 2-6 7-5#461Dusan Obradovic

6-4 4-0 ret.—Lorenzo Comino

6-2 6-2#157Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-1 7-6(5)#298Petr Nesterov

7-5 6-2#335Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-1 6-1#449Gerard Campana Lee

6-4 6-3#377Ognjen Milic

6-4 3-6 6-3#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

2-6 7-6(3) 7-5#889Jozef Kovalik

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ANAndrej NedicNedic

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Gabriele PirainoPirainoGP

Andrej Nedic carries the stronger recent form — Gabriele Piraino's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In59.1%+1.0pp58.1%

1st Serve Won64.1%+3.1pp61.0%

2nd Serve Won48.3%—47.9%

Aces / Match1.5—1.5

Double Faults / Match2.31.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.8%+2.6pp42.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.1%+6.6pp48.7%

Break Pts Saved58.1%+4.7pp53.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.1%—49.2%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

59.1%1st Serve In+1.0pp58.1%

64.1%1st Serve Won+3.1pp61.0%

48.3%2nd Serve Won—47.9%

1.5Aces / Match—1.5

2.3Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

39.8%Return Pts Won+2.6pp42.4%

Pressure · 1–1

42.1%Break Pts Converted+6.6pp48.7%

58.1%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp53.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.1%Total Pts Won—49.2%