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Predictions graded

Vasco Leote PrataPortugal0Joao Domingues #584Portugal2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Mon 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Vasco Leote Prata

Portugal

Portuguese player who entered the Lisbon qualifying draw as a wild card. No ranking, career-high mark or playing-style details are available for him, and his recent results are split between ITF-level hard-court and clay events.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Joao Domingues

Portugal

Domingues is the Portuguese player in this tie, ranked No. 598 and competing in his home country. He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable career detail beyond that is thin.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 22:36 · Europe/Bucharest

A main-draw place on Lisbon clay, and the ranking gap says Domingues should have it easy; his 0-3 clay record this window says otherwise.

Leote Prata, an unranked wild card, has won two of five completed clay matches and has the steadier first set, though his second sets have been poor. Two prices hold up: Leote Prata at 4.75 to win and 3.8 to take the opening set; Domingues at 1.15 and 1.22 does not.

Context

Both men had to win to reach this match, and the prize on 19 October is a main-draw place rather than ranking points alone. The workload is uneven: Leote Prata's opener ran to three sets and ended in the afternoon of, while Domingues had roughly two hours less court time because Gakhov stopped after one set. A 10:00 local start leaves Leote Prata under a day to absorb that extra set, which is the clearest concrete difference between them. The counterweight is that Domingues has completed only three sets across his past two events, so the lighter load also means minimal recent match play.
- Lisbon Challenger men's singles qualifying, played on clay, lists Leote Prata against Domingues on 19 October
- Leote Prata's qualifying win finished 6-2 4-6 6-4 in mid-afternoon
- Domingues won the opening set 7-6(5) before Gakhov retired
- The winner of the 19 October match enters the main draw
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:35 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co · 18 Oct 2026
Leote Prata has started clay matches well but faded after the opening set in this window.
The three first sets he won came with 4.8 games against 3.6, while the second sets went 1-4 with 4.2 games against 4.8. A good start may carry him, but a split first two sets would leave the match on his weakest ground.
- Clay setEvidence, five completed best-of-3 matches from 3 September to 18 October 2026, one retirement excluded
- Set 1: 3 wins, 2 losses; 4.8 games won and 3.6 lost per set
- Set 2: 1 win, 4 losses; 4.2 games won and 4.8 lost per set
- No tiebreaks in any of the five matches
Domingues has begun clay matches slowly throughout this window.
Every completed clay opener has gone against him, and the second sets were only slightly better at 1-2 with 4.33 games against 6.33. Three matches is a thin basis, and he did take an opening tiebreak 7-6(5) in the match Gakhov retired from, which that record excludes.
- Clay setEvidence, three completed best-of-3 matches from 18 July to 11 October 2026, one retirement excluded
- Set 1: 0 wins, 3 losses; 2.33 games won and 6.0 lost per set
- Set 2: 1 win, 2 losses; 4.33 games won and 6.33 lost per set
- One tiebreak across the three matches
The Lisbon win broke a run of three straight defeats on Portuguese clay and hard courts, and it arrives without a completed second set. Against Gaubas, the only top-150 opponent in that stretch, Domingues won six games across two sets, which places his current clay level well below that of a tour regular. A win by retirement restores a place in the draw but reveals nothing about how he holds up over three sets, which is exactly the demand this qualifying round makes. The one useful signal is that he converted the opening tiebreak against a higher-ranked opponent, ranked No. 434, rather than losing a tight first set.
- Gaubas, the third seed and No. 141, beat Domingues 6-1 7-5 in Braga
- Domingues lost 6-2 6-1 to Andrej Martin in Maia qualifying on 11 October
- Gakhov took a medical timeout after losing the first set 7-6(5)
- Gakhov did not continue, giving Domingues the win
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:35 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.75
The read
Leote Prata has won twice on clay in this window while Domingues has lost all three completed clay matches with heavy scorelines.
- Leote Prata: 8-6 overall, 2-3 in 5 completed clay matches
- Domingues: 5-9 overall, 0-3 in 3 completed clay matches
- Domingues' clay set scores: 2-6 1-6, 1-6 5-7, plus a 3-set loss
- Leote Prata beat No. 1415 in 3 sets on 18 October; lost 3 sets to No. 375 on 11 October
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVasco Leote PrataEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Domingues' first sets on clay have been lopsided and neither player has taken one to a tiebreak.
- Leote Prata set 1: 4.8 games won, 3.6 lost
- Domingues set 1: 2.3 games won, 6.0 lost
- Zero tiebreaks across 8 combined clay first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have lasted longer for both players, with Domingues averaging over ten games.
- Leote Prata set 2 average total games on clay: 9.0
- Domingues set 2 average total games on clay: 10.67
- One tiebreak in Domingues' clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Short first sets from both players keep the total near or below the line.
- Domingues' last completed clay match had only 15 games
- Leote Prata set 1 average total games on clay: 8.4 (no tiebreaks)
- Neither player has serve statistics recorded
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.80
The read
Leote Prata starts clay matches more securely, while Domingues has been beaten heavily in every first set on the surface.
- Set 1 on clay: 3 wins, 2 losses, 4.8 games won vs 3.6 lost
- Domingues set 1 on clay: 0 wins, 3 losses, 2.3 games won vs 6.0 lost
- No tiebreaks in any of Leote Prata's 5 clay sets tracked at set 1
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostVasco Leote PrataEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are weak in second sets, so this is close to even with a slight lean to the livelier overall form.
- Set 2 on clay: 1 win, 4 losses, 4.2 games won vs 4.8 lost
- Domingues set 2 on clay: 1 win, 2 losses, 4.3 games won vs 6.3 lost
- Leote Prata's set 2 loss rate is the weakest part of his clay record
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostVasco Leote PrataEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' recent clay matches ended in two sets.
- 5 of 8 combined clay scorelines were straight sets
- Domingues' last completed clay match lasted 15 games over two sets
- Leote Prata lost 0-2 twice in this window
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' recent clay matches.
- Leote Prata: 0 tiebreaks in 5 completed clay matches
- Domingues: 1 tiebreak in 3 completed clay matches
- Combined: 1 tiebreak in 8 clay matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Vasco Leote Prata

9W 6L

6-2 4-6 6-4#1415Piotr Matuszewski

4-6 6-4 6-2#375Alejo Sanchez Quilez

7-5 6-3#704Ziga Sesko

6-1 6-4—Yannick Castelnuovo

6-2 6-2—Guillem Busquets Brau

0-6 6-2 6-4#867Tyler Stice

6-3 6-4#555John Echeverria

7-5 6-4#644Ryan Colby

4-6 6-0 10-7#892Giulio Perego

6-0 6-2—Bernardo Severino

4-6 6-3 10-3—Frederic Schlossmann

6-3 6-4#566Pierre Delage

6-4 ret.#1613Frazier Rengifo

6-0 6-0—Mario Nicosia

6-3 6-3#566Pierre Delage

Joao Domingues

6W 9L

7-6(5) ret.#434Ivan Gakhov

6-2 6-1#387Andrej Martin

6-1 7-5#141Vilius Gaubas

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#345Michael Geerts

7-6(4) 6-2#405Vadym Ursu

7-5 7-5#396Robin Bertrand

6-4 3-6 6-1#767Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Julien Penzlin

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#210Timofey Skatov

6-4 7-6(5)#520Fabrizio Andaloro

6-3 6-3#365Tiago Torres

1-6 6-4 7-6(3)#673Maxwell Mckennon

6-3 5-7 6-2#520Fabrizio Andaloro

6-2 1-6 6-3#648Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-3 6-4#649Tiago Cacao

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VPVasco Leote PrataPrata

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Joao DominguesDominguesJD

Vasco Leote Prata carries the stronger recent form — Joao Domingues's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In12/15 · 15/1563.1%+2.9pp66.0%

1st Serve Won12/15 · 15/1565.0%+3.7pp61.3%

2nd Serve Won12/15 · 15/1548.4%+0.8pp49.2%

Aces / Match12/15 · 15/151.5+0.51.0

Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/151.5—1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won12/15 · 15/1543.4%+4.5pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted12/15 · 15/1544.7%+6.4pp51.1%

Break Pts Saved12/15 · 15/1562.5%+10.4pp52.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won12/15 · 15/1550.9%+2.8pp48.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.1%1st Serve In12/15 · 15/15+2.9pp66.0%

65.0%1st Serve Won12/15 · 15/15+3.7pp61.3%

48.4%2nd Serve Won12/15 · 15/15+0.8pp49.2%

1.5Aces / Match12/15 · 15/15+0.51.0

1.5Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/15—1.7

Return · 1–0

43.4%Return Pts Won12/15 · 15/15+4.5pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

44.7%Break Pts Converted12/15 · 15/15+6.4pp51.1%

62.5%Break Pts Saved12/15 · 15/15+10.4pp52.1%

Points · 1–0

50.9%Total Pts Won12/15 · 15/15+2.8pp48.1%