PortugalLisbon - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #368Switzerland2Francisco Rocha #854Portugal1

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 7-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Schoen · 486 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #368
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 675 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 803.

Current ranking: #854
Peak ranking: #675 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Schoen arrives 486 ranking places above Rocha and has won four of six clay matches; Rocha has lost all four on the surface and has not won since 23 September.

Schoen should come through, most likely in straight sets. The only price reviewed, 1.15 on Schoen to win, demands about seven wins in eight and offers nothing at that number.

Context

Schoen, 21, won the Sintra M25, then beat No. 244 Andrej Nedic 6-1 7-6(1) in Braga's first round for a first main-draw win at Challenger level. That two-week jump is the firmest evidence of his present level, and it is why a No. 368 ranking sits well above what a No. 854 opponent has shown on clay this autumn. The counterweight is his very next match in Braga, a 6-1 6-0 loss to No. 138 Max Alcalá Gurri, which marks how sharply the level rises inside the top 150. A first main-draw win is a single result, not a record at this tier.
- Schoen won the Sintra M25, his fifth career ITF singles title.
- he beat Andrej Nedic, ranked No. 244, 6-1 7-6(1) in Braga's first round.
- In the following round he lost 6-1 6-0 to Max Alcalá Gurri, ranked No. 138.
- His ranking moved from No. 413 in September to No. 368 in October.
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Schoen's clay results have been settled quickly, whether he wins or loses.
Across six clay matches from 4 to 12 October 2026 he went 4-2, with four straight-set wins and two straight-set defeats, and only one tiebreak. The average match lasted 16.3 games, which is short. That pattern explains why his matches have not stretched, but six matches is a small sample and says nothing about how Rocha might resist.
- Between 4 and 12 October 2026 Schoen played six completed clay matches, going 4-2, with four wins at 2-0 and two defeats at 0-2.
- Those six matches averaged 16.3 total games and produced one tiebreak.
- His first-set record in the sample was 4-2, averaging 4.67 games won and 2.83 lost.
Rocha's clay defeats have been one-sided, especially after the first set.
In four clay matches from 18 July to 12 October 2026 Rocha lost all four, taking one set out of nine, and three of the defeats came in straight sets. He lost every second set, averaging 3.25 games in them against 6.25 for his opponents. That record is a warning about his capacity to stay with a higher-ranked opponent, though the sample is only four matches.
- Rocha's four completed clay matches from 18 July to 12 October 2026 ended 0-4, with one set won out of nine.
- He lost all four second sets, averaging 3.25 games won and 6.25 lost in them.
- Three of the four defeats finished 0-2; the other was 1-2.
Both men played the previous Portuguese event and both went out in Maia's final qualifying round, so neither arrives in Lisbon with a main-draw place already secured. The defeats are not equivalent: Schoen, ranked No. 368, lost to a player almost 400 places below him, while Rocha's exit came against No. 215 Pol Martín Tiffon, the strongest opponent either faced that day. That asymmetry is the point of interest rather than a shared form line, because it separates a bad loss from an expected one. Both had five days to reset before this qualifying match.
- Schoen lost 6-3 6-4 to Michael Vrbensky, ranked No. 754, in Maia.
- Rocha lost 6-4 6-2 to Pol Martín Tiffon, ranked No. 215, in Maia's final qualifying round .
- Neither player entered the Maia main draw; both appear in the Lisbon qualifying draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Patrick Schoen

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

−9.0ppshort

Schoen has been far the stronger player across the last 15 matches and especially on clay, while Rocha has lost every clay match in the sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Schoen has been far the stronger player across the last 15 matches and especially on clay, while Rocha has lost every clay match in the sample.
- Schoen is 13-2 in his last 15 matches; Rocha is 5-10.
- On clay this window Schoen is 4-2 and has won 8 of 12 sets; Rocha is 0-4 with 1 of 9 sets won.
- Clay total points won: Schoen 53.7%, Rocha 45.2%.
- Rankings: Schoen No. 368, Rocha No. 854.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's clay matches have been short, and a straight-set win would typically land below the line.
- Schoen's six clay matches averaged 16.3 total games.
- Rocha's four clay matches averaged 22.3 total games.
- Five of Schoen's six clay matches finished under 20 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's clay first sets have been short, and his expected edge points to a scoreline of 6-3 or better.
- All six of Schoen's clay first sets finished under 10 games.
- Rocha's clay first sets averaged 10.75 games.
- Schoen's clay first sets averaged 7.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's second sets have been his weakest, usually ending without a long fight.
- Schoen's clay second sets averaged 8.83 games.
- Rocha's clay second sets averaged 9.5 games with 3.25 games won.
- Rocha lost every clay second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen has started clay matches strongly while Rocha has usually surrendered the first set.
- Schoen's clay set1 record is 4-2 with 4.67 games won per set.
- Rocha's clay set1 record is 1-3 with 4.75 games won per set.
- Schoen won the opening set in four of six clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rocha's clay second sets have all gone against him, often by wide margins.
- Schoen's clay set2 record is 4-2 with 8.83 total games on average.
- Rocha lost all four of his clay second sets, averaging 3.25 games won.
- Schoen has won 26 of 32 sets in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's clay sample shows many three-set matches, and Schoen's wins have all been straight sets.
- All six of Schoen's clay matches finished 2-0 or 0-2.
- Three of Rocha's four clay matches were 0-2 defeats.
- Schoen has won 26 of 32 sets in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay scorelines point to straight-set Schoen wins rather than long matches.
- Four of Schoen's six clay matches were 2-0 wins.
- Rocha has lost three of four clay matches 0-2.
- Schoen has not dropped a set in any of his clay wins.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostPatrick Schoen 2-0Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in these samples finished without reaching six games all.
- Schoen's clay matches: one tiebreak in six.
- Rocha's clay matches: one tiebreak in four.
- Schoen's clay set1 average total is 7.5 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players record few aces on clay, and a short straight-set match limits the total further.
- Schoen averaged 0.8 aces per clay match (5 in 6).
- Rocha averaged 2.3 aces per clay match (9 in 4).
- Both players' first-serve-in rate on clay is around 53%.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen is careful on serve and Rocha's clay rate is moderate, making a combined total under six more likely.
- Schoen averaged 1.7 double faults per clay match (10 in 6).
- Rocha averaged 2.5 double faults per clay match (10 in 4).
- Rocha averaged 3.6 double faults per match across his last 15.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%

Patrick Schoen

13W 2L

6-3 6-4#754Michael Vrbensky

6-2 6-1—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 7-6(1)#244Andrej Nedic

6-1 6-0#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-1 6-2#471Filip Misolic

6-1 6-3#681Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#470Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#649Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#396Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#594Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#728Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

7-6(3) 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

Francisco Rocha

5W 10L

6-4 6-2#215Pol Martin Tiffon

6-7(6) 6-2 6-2#456Oleksii Krutykh

4-6 6-3 6-1#394Lui Maxted

6-2 6-2#731Michael Agwi

6-3 6-2—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 7-5#770Benjamin Pietri

6-2 6-2#728Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

6-2 6-4—Julien Penzlin

6-4 7-5#339Tiago Pereira

7-6(5) 6-3#649Tiago Cacao

6-4 6-4#183Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#649Tiago Cacao

7-5 6-3—Lucas Marionneau

6-7(1) 6-1 7-6(5)—Matisse Farzam

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Francisco RochaRochaFR

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Francisco Rocha's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.2%+1.5pp54.7%

1st Serve Won72.7%+4.5pp68.2%

2nd Serve Won52.5%+4.6pp47.9%

Aces / Match3.2—3.3

Double Faults / Match1.71.9 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.4%+11.1pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.6%+3.1pp40.5%

Break Pts Saved65.9%+14.9pp51.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.2%+7.4pp47.8%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

56.2%1st Serve In+1.5pp54.7%

72.7%1st Serve Won+4.5pp68.2%

52.5%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp47.9%

3.2Aces / Match—3.3

1.7Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

47.4%Return Pts Won+11.1pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

43.6%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp40.5%

65.9%Break Pts Saved+14.9pp51.0%

Points · 1–0

55.2%Total Pts Won+7.4pp47.8%