JapanWTA OsakaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mary Stoiana #114United States2Sayaka Ishii #588Japan0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Sun 18 Oct 2026, 02:35 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions10–0100%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMary Stoiana · 474 places

Mary Stoiana

United States

Limited reliable public profile information was found. Use the structured ranking and form data as the main current context.

Current ranking: #114
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Sayaka Ishii

Japan

Ishii, 21, is ranked No. 588 and enters the final qualifying round unseeded after beating the 11th seed Elina Avanesyan. She has played a dense Japanese autumn, winning five matches in Nanao in late September before losing the semi-final to Hiromi Abe.

Current ranking: #588
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest

The last qualifying place for the Osaka main draw comes down to the sixth seed against a home player ranked more than 400 places below her, and the gap has not produced free points this week.

Stoiana should win, but 1.10 asks for a near-certainty she has not shown. Over 20.5 games at 2.40 is the quote that holds up, with both players' hard-court matches averaging above 22 games.

Context

The winner takes a place in the main draw of a WTA 250 starting the following day at the same venue, while the loser leaves with qualifying-round points only. That is the larger swing for Ishii, ranked 588 and playing mostly Japanese ITF weeks this autumn, because a main-draw place means a guaranteed tour-level match and the ranking points attached to it. For Stoiana the ranking gap to the field is narrower, yet the same prize applies and she has already banked one qualifying win this week. Both played their first qualifying round, so neither carries a rest advantage into a match that settles the whole week.
- Women's qualifying runs 17-18 October, with the main draw from 19 to 25 October at the Morita Tennis Center Utsubo in Osaka
- Stoiana beat Rinko Matsuda 6-3 7-6 in the first qualifying round
- Ishii beat Elina Avanesyan 6-3 ret. in the first qualifying round
- The two winners of the second qualifying round enter the main draw
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:03 · Europe/BucharestSayaka Ishii vs Mary Stoiana fixture listing, Osaka qualifying finalwww.wtaschedule.com · 17 Oct 2026
Stoiana is the only player in this match ranked inside the top 120, so the gap of more than 400 ranking places, not a fitness or coaching story, is the structural fact of the fixture. Her opening win came in straight sets, but the second set ran to a tie-break against a wildcard ranked 436, which keeps the result inside the expected range without showing how she copes with a better-ranked opponent. The ranking is a rolling 12-month measure and the sixth seeding reflects entry position at a 250-level event, so neither describes her level on this hard court this week.
- Stoiana is listed sixth in the qualifying draw at No. 114
- Matsuda entered the first qualifying round as a wildcard, ranked 436
- Stoiana won 6-3 7-6
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:03 · Europe/BucharestMary Stoiana results, Osaka qualifyingwww.flashscore.com · 17 Oct 2026
Avanesyan was the seeded, top-150 opponent in Ishii's first-round match, the kind of opponent Ishii has rarely beaten this autumn, so this is the strongest result of her week. It carries a limit: the retirement after one set means Ishii completed 6-3 and nothing more, never having to hold a lead through a second set or serve out a match against a tour-ranked player. The practical effect is a short first round, leaving her with less match work than a two-set winner but with little evidence about how her level holds across a full match.
- Avanesyan was seeded 11th in the qualifying draw and ranked 145
- Ishii won the first set 6-3 before the retirement
- Ishii entered the qualifying draw unseeded at No. 588
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:03 · Europe/BucharestSayaka Ishii vs Mary Stoiana fixture listing, Osaka qualifying finalwww.wtaschedule.com · 17 Oct 2026
Stoiana's serve split is the clearest number in the file: the first delivery holds up, the second invites pressure.
That split gives Ishii an obvious target: keep the ball in play on second serves and the games get longer. It also fits the way Stoiana's matches so often reach 19 or more games even when she wins in straight sets. The limit is that Ishii has no serve or return figures in the file, so nothing here measures how well she can punish those second serves.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked from 11 August to 17 October 2026
- First-serve points won: 410 of 659 (62.2%)
- Second-serve points won: 210 of 433 (48.5%)
- Break points saved: 72 of 129 (55.8%)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mary Stoiana

1.10fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 90.9%

−20.9ppshort

Stoiana has the stronger hard-court record and much higher ranking, and her points and games numbers point to a clear level advantage.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.25fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 80%

−13.0ppshort

Most of their hard-court matches ended in two sets, with only seven of 23 going the distance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mary Stoiana

1.18fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 84.7%

−21.7ppshort

Stoiana has won two-thirds of her hard-court opening sets, while Ishii has broken even in hers.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Mary Stoiana 2-0

1.36fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 73.5%

−26.5ppshort

Stoiana has won most of her hard-court matches in straight sets, including four of her last six.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Stoiana has the stronger hard-court record and much higher ranking, and her points and games numbers point to a clear level advantage.
- Hard-court record 10-5 with 51.6% total points won
- Games won 181 of 337 (53.7%)
- Ishii is 4-4 on hard and has no serve metrics available
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMary StoianaEstimated chance70%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average above 20.5 games, and a deciding set would clear the line comfortably.
- Stoiana's hard matches average 22.47 total games
- Ishii's hard matches average 23.75 total games
- Stoiana recent totals include 22, 24, 19, 18, 20, 21
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stoiana's second sets average above 10 games, and Ishii's are close to that mark.
- Stoiana set2 total games average 10.47
- Ishii set2 total games average 9.875
- Stoiana set2 games won 5.4, lost 5.07
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ishii only needs to stay within four games or win, and Stoiana's recent wins were mostly by four to six games.
- Stoiana's recent hard margins were +4, -4, +5, -6, +6, +5
- Ishii is 4-4 on hard with set1 games 4.875-5.5 and set2 5.25-4.625
- No completed hard match margin is listed for Ishii in recentMatches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSayaka Ishii +4.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ishii's opening sets run slightly longer than the line, while Stoiana's average sits right at it.
- Stoiana set1 total games average 9.47
- Ishii set1 total games average 10.375
- Ishii had three set1 tiebreaks in eight hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Most of their hard-court matches ended in two sets, with only seven of 23 going the distance.
- Stoiana went to three sets in 4 of 15 hard matches
- Ishii went to three sets in 3 of 8 hard matches
- Combined three-set rate is 7 of 23 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Stoiana has won two-thirds of her hard-court opening sets, while Ishii has broken even in hers.
- Stoiana set1 record 10-5 on hard, games 5.27-4.20
- Ishii set1 record 4-4, games 4.875-5.5
- Ishii had three set1 tiebreaks in eight hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMary StoianaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stoiana's overall level is stronger, though her second-set record is only slightly above even.
- Stoiana set2 record 8-7, games 5.4-5.07
- Ishii set2 record 5-3, games 5.25-4.625
- Stoiana has the higher overall hard-court win rate
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMary StoianaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches did not contain a tiebreak.
- Stoiana had a tiebreak in 6 of 15 hard matches
- Ishii had a tiebreak in 3 of 8 hard matches
- Stoiana set1 had 2 tiebreaks and set2 4; Ishii set1 3 and set2 1
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Mary Stoiana

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(1)#436Rinko Matsuda

7-5 7-5#250Julieta Pareja

6-3 6-4#289Hanna Chang

6-4 6-2#58Paula Badosa Gibert

7-6(5) 6-1#120Dominika Salkova

6-3 7-5#96Claire Liu

4-6 7-6(7) 6-3#138Julia Riera

6-3 6-2#155Jazmin Ortenzi

6-1 6-2#19Alexandra Eala

6-3 4-6 6-4#141Yue Yuan

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#191Katie Swan

6-4 6-3#223Harmony Tan

6-2 7-6(4)#62Tereza Valentova

6-0 5-7 6-4#100Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-2 7-6(3)#144Veronika Erjavec

Sayaka Ishii

10W 5L

6-3 ret.#145Elina Avanesyan

6-3 6-2#272Hiromi Abe

6-2 6-0—Rion Itaya

5-7 7-6(9) 6-2#411Natsumi Kawaguchi

7-6(5) 6-2#754Nagi Hanatani

6-3 6-1—Rira Kosaka

6-0 6-0—Miku Suzuki

4-6 6-4 6-3#272Hiromi Abe

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-3#380Amelia Rajecki

7-6(2) 6-4#635Cheuk Ying Shek

6-4 7-5#714Urszula Radwanska

6-2 2-6 6-4—Alice Ferlito

7-6(4) 6-2#577Neus Torner Sensano

6-1 6-2#785Juliana Giaccio

6-3 6-4#1285Valentina Losciale

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMary StoianaStoiana

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Sayaka IshiiIshiiSI

Sayaka Ishii carries the stronger recent form — Mary Stoiana's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In60.3%—60.9%

1st Serve Won62.2%+6.3pp68.5%

2nd Serve Won48.5%—48.2%

Aces / Match1.3+1.22.5

Double Faults / Match4.30.8 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+0.8pp45.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.9%+4.1pp53.0%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+6.9pp48.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.3pp52.9%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

60.3%1st Serve In—60.9%

62.2%1st Serve Won+6.3pp68.5%

48.5%2nd Serve Won—48.2%

1.3Aces / Match+1.22.5

4.3Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+0.8pp45.7%

Pressure · 1–1

48.9%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp53.0%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp48.9%

Points · 0–1

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.3pp52.9%