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Predictions graded

Felipe Meligeni Alves #453Brazil2Lorenzo Claverie #889Venezuela0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions gradedGravel

Predictions1–0100%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelipe Meligeni Alves · 436 places

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander; career-high ATP singles ranking No. 117 came in April 2025. His recorded career match volume is heavily concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #453
Peak ranking: #117 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Lorenzo Claverie

Venezuela

Structured player data lists Claverie at No. 877, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 196 cm.

Current ranking: #889
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Two clay-courters 436 ranking places apart open the Cali qualifying.

Meligeni has the better recent clay wins but was beaten 1-6 4-6 in each of his last two, so 1.12 asks far more certainty than that record gives. Claverie at 5.25 is the one price worth a look: his serve numbers are strong and the odds underrate him by 13 points.

Context

That is the clearest recent evidence that he can still beat a top-200 opponent on clay, and he did it in 81 minutes while saving the three break points against him. It matters here because the gap to a No. 889 opponent is exactly the kind of level difference a 453-ranked clay player has to convert. The counterweight is what followed: a 6-1 6-4 loss to Francisco Comesaña, No. 125, in the Santa Cruz round of 16 four days before this match, so the same test also has a ceiling.
- Varillas, the sixth seed and world No. 200, lost 6-3 6-1 in 1 hour 21 minutes.
- Meligeni saved all three break points he faced in the match.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest
His competitive week was at 15K level, well below a 75-level Challenger, and he left it without beating anyone inside the top 800. Both sets of his last match were decided in tiebreaks, so there is no recent evidence of him sustaining a level against Challenger-standard opposition. What supports him is surface: his 2026 clay record is far better than his hard-court record, and his only win in the past month came on clay.
- Claverie, ranked No. 889, was the eighth seed in Quito.
- He beat Echazú, No. 1409, 7-5 7-5 in the first round on 13 October.
- He then lost 7-6(2) 7-6(2) to Mbithi, No. 819, on 15 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Both defeats came against opponents ranked well inside the top 200, and in each match Meligeni won only five games. The repetition is notable, but two matches are a small sample and Claverie at No. 889 is a different calibre of opponent. Earlier in October, Meligeni beat higher-ranked men in straight sets, so the recent line is mixed rather than one-directional.
- 14 October 2026: lost 1-6 4-6 to Francisco Comesana (No. 125) on clay, winning five games across two sets.
- 9 October 2026: lost 1-6 4-6 to Thiago Seyboth Wild (No. 136) on clay, also winning five games.
- Both rows come from the six most recent completed matches in the supplied record.
The first serve is the part of his game that travels: 62.8% of first serves in, and 78% of those won. Second serves are the soft spot, and 30.7% of return points won shows he gets limited help elsewhere. Those figures mean the 889-ranked man can hold serve for stretches, but they come from a 15-match sample and sit alongside a 7-8 record.
- 15 matches tracked: 62.8% of first serves in (783/1246).
- 78% first-serve points won (611/783) and 49.2% second-serve points won (228/463).
- 11.3 aces and 4.5 double faults per match, with 73.9% of break points saved (68/92).
- Average match duration 130.3 minutes across the same 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Meligeni is higher-ranked and has the better recent clay wins, including straight-set victories over two higher-ranked opponents.
- ATP ranking: Meligeni 453, Claverie 889.
- Meligeni is 7-7 in his last 14 completed matches; Claverie is 7-8 in his last 15.
- Meligeni beat Varillas (No. 200) and Hardt (No. 281) in straight sets on clay this month.
- Claverie has lost five of his last six completed matches, including to No. 819 Mbithi.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelipe Meligeni AlvesEstimated chance68%

Felipe Meligeni Alves

8W 7L

6-1 6-4#125Francisco Comesana

6-0 2-1 ret.#342Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

6-1 6-4#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-3 6-3#281Nick Hardt

6-3 6-1#200Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 6-4#116Gustavo Heide

6-4 6-2#352Carlos Maria Zarate

6-3 6-2#128Hugo Dellien

7-5 6-4#375Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-3 6-4#126Dalibor Svrcina

6-1 6-4#201Moise Kouame

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#325Dali Blanch

7-6(2) 7-6(1)#207Luka Pavlovic

6-3 7-5#436Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-2 6-3#561Maximo Zeitune

Lorenzo Claverie

7W 8L

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#819Mwendwa Mbithi

7-5 7-5#896Mauricio Echazu

6-4 4-6 6-2#408Ozan Baris

6-4 6-1#703Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#506Miguel Tobon

7-6(1) 6-3#209Tristan Boyer

4-6 6-4 7-6(6)#683Bruno Kuzuhara

7-5 7-5#252Matias Soto

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#197Facundo Mena

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#281Nick Hardt

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-1#634Samuel Heredia

6-4 3-6 6-3—Christopher Papa

6-3 7-6(3)#698Daniel Antonio Nunez

5-7 7-6(4) 6-1—Jack Satterfield

6-4 6-4#891Maxwell Exsted

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFelipe Meligeni AlvesAlves

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Lorenzo ClaverieClaverieLC

Felipe Meligeni Alves carries the stronger recent form — Lorenzo Claverie's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.7%+1.9pp62.8%

1st Serve Won68.8%+9.2pp78.0%

2nd Serve Won49.7%—49.2%

Aces / Match2.8+8.511.3

Double Faults / Match1.43.1 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.8%+8.1pp30.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.6%+10.9pp37.7%

Break Pts Saved67.6%+6.3pp73.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.2pp49.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.7%1st Serve In+1.9pp62.8%

68.8%1st Serve Won+9.2pp78.0%

49.7%2nd Serve Won—49.2%

2.8Aces / Match+8.511.3

1.4Double Faults / Match3.1 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won+8.1pp30.7%

Pressure · 1–1

48.6%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp37.7%

67.6%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp73.9%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.3%