ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Arthur Weber #409France1Dominik Palan #631Czechia2

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 4-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Weber · 222 places

Arthur Weber

France

Weber, 34, is the left-hander in this matchup. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 303 in October 2023, and hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #409
Peak ranking: #303 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Dominik Palan

Czechia

Palan is a Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His ATP career-high singles ranking is No. 280, achieved in October 2023; no reliable preferred-surface source was surfaced.

Current ranking: #631
Peak ranking: #280 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Weber is the clear favourite against a player who has lost six straight, but he arrives from a three-hour, 11-minute defeat on 16 October and Palan beat him in their only meeting.

Weber should win; the 1.18 on him asks for near-certainty his week does not support, so the reviewed price offers nothing.

Context

Weber closed out his Qian Daohu quarterfinal after three hours and 11 minutes, and he lost it from a set up, so he carries both accumulated court time and a deciding-set defeat into Guangzhou. He is 34 and this is his fourth match in five days, while Palan has been off court since a straight-set loss on 14 October. Singles qualifiers rarely get a day of recovery inside the event, so any drop in Weber's movement or first-serve share would show up early rather than late. The counterweight is rhythm: Weber had won six of his previous seven matches on Chinese hard courts, so he arrives match-sharp rather than undercooked.
- Dellavedova won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 in the M25 Qian Daohu quarterfinal
- The match lasted three hours and 11 minutes
- Weber had already played on 14 and 15 October at the same event
- Palan's most recent match was a straight-set loss on 14 October
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:03 · Europe/Bucharest
The Guangzhou Nansha Challenger 75 runs 18-25 October at the Nansha International Tennis Center with a main draw headed by Zhang Zhizhen, Wu Yibing, Shang Juncheng and Bernard Tomic. This tie is a first-round qualifying match on Court 5, so the winner is one match from a place in that field and the ranking points an ATP 75 main draw carries, while the loser leaves with nothing. For players ranked No. 409 and No. 631, qualifying is the realistic route into Challenger main draws, which is what gives an outwardly minor fixture real weight. The qualifying draw was only released the evening before play, so neither player's path beyond this round is settled yet.
- The qualifying draw for the Guangzhou Nansha Challenger 75 was released
- The event runs 18-25 October at the Nansha International Tennis Center
- The main draw features Zhang Zhizhen, Wu Yibing, Shang Juncheng and Bernard Tomic
- The fixture is listed as a first-round qualifying match on Court 5
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 17 Oct 2026
Weber's recent hard-court matches rarely go the distance: 14 of 15 finished in two sets and all ten wins were 2-0. That makes a quick two-set finish the shape his record supports rather than a guess. Palan has lost eight of his own 15 in straight sets, so a short match is the likelier outcome for both.
- Weber's 15 hard-court matches from 4 September to 16 October 2026 finished 10-5
- Scorelines: ten 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss
- Four of those 15 matches included a tiebreak
- Weber averaged 19.4 total games per match in the window
Palan's serve is where his matches swing: the aces win him free points, but 5.5 double faults a match give much of that ground back. Weber's return game is the stronger part of his record, so Palan's second serve will be tested. Expect volatile serve numbers rather than a steady advantage.
- Palan hit 88 aces in 15 hard-court matches (5.9 per match)
- He hit 83 double faults in the same 15 matches (5.5 per match)
- He landed 58.2% of first serves
- He won 47% of second-serve points

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Arthur Weber

1.18fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 84.7%

−11.7ppshort

Weber has the stronger current hard-court results and a much better return and games-won record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Weber has the stronger current hard-court results and a much better return and games-won record.
- Last 15 on hard: 10-5, 53.7% total points won, 58.4% games won.
- Palan is 4-11 in the same window with 47.4% total points and 44.4% games won.
- Palan has lost his last six completed matches.
- Palan won the only prior meeting 6-1 6-4 in 2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArthur WeberEstimated chance73%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's short matches are likely to keep the total below 21.5 games.
- Weber's hard-court matches average 19.4 total games.
- Palan's average 23.3 total games, but 10 of 15 were two-set matches.
- Weber has played 14 two-set matches in 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually finish in straight sets, and Weber's wins have all been 2-0.
- Weber has played 14 two-set matches in his last 15 on hard.
- Palan has played 10 two-set matches in his last 15.
- Weber's 10 wins were all 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Weber has started most hard-court matches strongly and holds the better first-set record.
- Weber has won the first set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Palan has won the first set in only 5 of 15.
- Weber averages 5.7 first-set games won to 3.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's second-set record is also clearly stronger, though less dominant than his first.
- Weber has won the second set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Palan has won the second set in only 4 of 15.
- Weber averages 5.4 second-set games won to 4.1 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostArthur WeberEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's recent wins have come in straight sets while Palan often loses in two.
- Weber's 10 hard-court wins in the last 15 were all 2-0.
- Palan has lost 8 of 15 hard-court matches 0-2.
- Weber has won 58.4% of games in the same window.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostArthur Weber 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set matches and few tiebreaks in these records point to no tiebreak.
- Palan has had no tiebreak in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Weber has had no tiebreak in 11 of 15.
- Both players mostly finish in straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just below 8.5 and Weber rarely serves aces.
- The combined ace average is 8.2 per match.
- Weber averages only 2.3 aces.
- Palan's average is 5.9.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's double-fault rate is high enough to push the total over 6.5.
- Palan averages 5.5 double faults per match on hard.
- Weber averages 1.3.
- The combined average is 6.8.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%

Arthur Weber

10W 5L

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#283Matthew Dellavedova

6-1 7-5#665Isaac Becroft

6-4 6-3#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 6-2#300Yanki Erel

6-4 7-5#247Hayato Matsuoka

6-4 6-2#266Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-1 6-2#481Koki Matsuda

6-4 7-6(5)#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-4#393Yuta Shimizu

7-6(5) 6-2#661Filip Peliwo

6-0 6-0#510Tai Sach

6-0 6-0—Tran Quoc Cuong

7-5 7-6(5)#475Moerani Bouzige

6-1 6-2#1330Thantub Suksumrarn

6-2 7-5#716Thanapet Chanta

Dominik Palan

4W 11L

7-6(1) 7-5#294Sergey Fomin

7-6(4) 6-4#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-1 6-4#99Terence Atmane

6-3 6-3#752Kuan-Shou Chen

5-7 6-2 7-5#869Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-1 6-2#505Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-4#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-3#827Ji Sung Nam

6-1 6-4#432Semen Pankin

7-6(4) 6-4#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

3-6 7-6(11) 6-2#300Yanki Erel

3-6 6-3 6-4#248Max Basing

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4—Bernardo Munk Mesa

7-5 6-3#428Izan Almazan Valiente

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AWArthur WeberWeber

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Dominik PalanPalanDP

Arthur Weber carries the stronger recent form — Dominik Palan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.5%+1.3pp58.2%

1st Serve Won72.5%—72.0%

2nd Serve Won52.4%+5.4pp47.0%

Aces / Match2.3+3.65.9

Double Faults / Match1.34.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.5%+10.5pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.3%+4.8pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved65.0%+7.4pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.7%+6.3pp47.4%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.5%1st Serve In+1.3pp58.2%

72.5%1st Serve Won—72.0%

52.4%2nd Serve Won+5.4pp47.0%

2.3Aces / Match+3.65.9

1.3Double Faults / Match4.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

43.5%Return Pts Won+10.5pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

46.3%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp41.5%

65.0%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

53.7%Total Pts Won+6.3pp47.4%