United StatesFort Worth - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andrew Fenty #466United States1Kaylan Bigun #580United States2

Sets 3-6 · 6-1 · 3-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Fenty · 114 places

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #466
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Kaylan Bigun

United States

American left-hander born on 23 May 2006. Public player records list a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 507 in June 2026; no reliable source in this search established a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #580
Peak ranking: #507 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Fenty, the fifth seed, meets alternate Bigun in Fort Worth qualifying with the higher ranking and a 7-5 6-4 win in their only meeting, but Bigun's left-handed serve and Fenty's quick turnaround after three matches in Austin keep it from feeling straightforward.

Fenty is the likelier winner, probably in two sets. Neither quoted price is worthwhile: 1.6 on Fenty and 2.2 on Bigun do not offer enough for the risk.

Context

Bigun's first serve gives him a way to keep points short and stay with Fenty despite a 6-9 record in that span. His total points won is 50.0%, almost identical to Fenty's 49.8%, so the results gap is narrower than the rankings suggest. The caveat is that first-serve points won covers 619 first serves over 15 matches and depends on the opponents faced.
- Bigun won 446 of 619 first-serve points (72.1%) in 15 hard-court matches between 12 July and 13 October 2026.
- Fenty won 435 of 648 first-serve points (67.1%) in 15 hard-court matches between 10 August and 16 October 2026.
- Bigun's total points won was 50.0% (1047/2096); Fenty's was 49.8% (1017/2044).
Fort Worth is a Challenger 75, where qualifying offers only a few main-draw places, so both men need the same two wins to reach the main draw. Being the fifth seed or an alternate explains how each got into the qualifying field rather than giving either protection once the match starts, and 114 ranking places separate them at No. 466 and No. 580. The practical effect is a level first-round draw with no ranking cushion for either player.
- Fort Worth Challenger 75 qualifying draw published
- Fenty listed as the fifth seed and Bigun listed as an alternate (A) in that qualifying draw
- Qualifying round one scheduled on outdoor hardcourt at Court V1, 15:30 local start,
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:47 · Europe/BucharestScoreGOscorego-app.com · 18 Oct 2026
Fenty's Austin quarterfinal finished, leaving one clear day before Fort Worth qualifying, while Bigun has not competed since a 13 October loss to Li Tu. Fenty therefore arrives with sharper match rhythm but heavier legs, and his two Austin wins came against players ranked 536 and 632, below the standard of a Challenger 75 qualifying field. The load is modest by Challenger standards, three best-of-three matches with a three-setter at the end, so the likelier effect is an early-round sharpness trade-off rather than a decisive physical difference.
- Lui Maxted, eighth seed and ranked No. 394, beat Fenty, ranked No. 466, in the M25 Austin quarterfinals
- Fenty's Austin route began with straight-set wins over Michael Antonius and Shunsuke Mitsui on 14 and 15 October 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Both sets of that San Diego match were settled by one break, so the straight-set margin overstated how little separated the two at the time. Bigun has played once since, a 13 October loss to Li Tu, while Fenty has played four matches. A single hardcourt meeting four weeks earlier is thin evidence of a pattern, particularly as Bigun's listed surface is clay and Fenty's is hard court, so it is best read as a reference point for the matchup rather than a trend.
- Fenty leads the head-to-head 1-0, with the previous meeting recorded at San Diego 2, USA in 2026
- Fenty won 7-5 6-4 on hardcourt on 20 September 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:47 · Europe/BucharestScoreGOscorego-app.com · 18 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Andrew Fenty

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

−0.5ppshort

Fenty has the higher ranking, better hard-court record and a straight-set win in their meeting.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Fenty has the higher ranking, better hard-court record and a straight-set win in their meeting.
- Fenty is ranked 466; Bigun is ranked 580.
- Fenty is 8-7 in 15 hard-court matches; Bigun is 6-9.
- Fenty won their confirmed hard-court meeting 7-5 6-4.
- Fenty is the fifth seed; Bigun entered as an alternate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's shorter matches and the 22-game meeting keep the under more likely.
- Fenty's matches average 21.3 total games; Bigun's average 22.8.
- Fenty has 12 two-set matches in 15.
- Their confirmed meeting had 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have averaged around ten games and the meeting opener went to 12.
- Fenty's first sets average 10.2 total games; Bigun's average 9.67.
- Their meeting's first set had 12 games.
- Fenty has two first-set tiebreaks; Bigun has one.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bigun's second sets have been longer and include three tiebreaks.
- Fenty's second sets average 9.4 total games; Bigun's average 10.33.
- Bigun has three second-set tiebreaks; Fenty has none.
- Both players have 8-7 second-set records.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both ended in two sets and the meeting was straight sets.
- Fenty has 12 two-set matches in 15; Bigun has 10.
- Their confirmed meeting was 7-5 6-4.
- Fenty's hard-court matches average 2.2 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty has the better first-set record and won the opener in their meeting.
- Fenty's first-set record on hard is 9-6; Bigun's is 7-8.
- Fenty averages 5.53 first-set games won; Bigun averages 5.13.
- Fenty won the first set 7-5 in their meeting.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's second-set win in their meeting gives him a narrow lead in a close set.
- Fenty and Bigun both have 8-7 second-set records on hard.
- Fenty won the second set 6-4 in their meeting.
- Bigun's second-set games average is 5.2 against Fenty's 4.53.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets for both players have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Fenty has two tiebreak matches in 15; Bigun has four.
- Their confirmed meeting had no tiebreak.
- Sixty-two of their combined 68 hard-court sets had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average fewer than five double faults per match, keeping the under more likely.
- Fenty averages 4.3 double faults per match; Bigun averages 3.7.
- Their combined average is 8.0.
- Bigun has 56 double faults in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined ace average sits under 10.5 and most matches are short.
- Fenty averages 5.3 aces per match; Bigun averages 4.8.
- Their combined average is 10.1.
- Most of their hard-court matches finished in two sets.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance54%

Andrew Fenty

8W 7L

2-6 6-2 6-2#394Lui Maxted

6-3 6-4#536Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 6-3#632Michael Antonius

7-5 6-2#264Dylan Dietrich

6-2 6-4#274Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-3 6-3#591Erik Arutiunian

7-5 6-4#580Kaylan Bigun

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#620Ryan Seggerman

7-5 7-5#603Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-2 6-3#699Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-4#332Alvaro Guillen Meza

7-5 6-2#479Evan Zhu

2-6 6-3 6-4#605Hunter Heck

7-6(2) 6-1#110Lloyd Harris

6-1 6-4#840Evan King

Kaylan Bigun

6W 9L

6-3 7-5#527Li Tu

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#202Keegan Smith

6-3 6-2#448Alafia Ayeni

6-3 6-4#780Noah Zamora

7-5 6-4#466Andrew Fenty

7-5 6-0#576Bryce Nakashima

2-6 6-3 6-3#699Keshav Chopra

6-1 7-6(4)#703Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-1 6-4#771Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3—Maximus Dussault

6-3 6-2#607Naoya Honda

4-6 6-3 6-2—Sam Landau

6-4 7-5#315Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-5#538Millen Hurrion

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2#697Thomas Fancutt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFAndrew FentyFenty

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Kaylan BigunBigunKB

Andrew Fenty carries the stronger recent form — Kaylan Bigun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.5%+3.8pp58.7%

1st Serve Won67.1%+5.0pp72.1%

2nd Serve Won52.4%+2.3pp50.1%

Aces / Match5.3+0.54.8

Double Faults / Match4.30.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.5%—36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted38.5%+6.2pp32.3%

Break Pts Saved64.2%+4.0pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.8%—50.0%

Serve · 3–2

62.5%1st Serve In+3.8pp58.7%

67.1%1st Serve Won+5.0pp72.1%

52.4%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp50.1%

5.3Aces / Match+0.54.8

4.3Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.5%Return Pts Won—36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

38.5%Break Pts Converted+6.2pp32.3%

64.2%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.8%Total Pts Won—50.0%