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Predictions graded

Nishesh Basavareddy #139United States2Edas Butvilas #199Lithuania0

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:45 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNishesh Basavareddy · 60 places

Nishesh Basavareddy

United States

American right-hander. No reliable current injury, withdrawal, comeback, coaching, or home-crowd context was surfaced in the prescribed searches.

Current ranking: #139
Peak ranking: #99
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #199
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Basavareddy, the higher-ranked player and the stronger starter, should get past Butvilas in this Brussels qualifying opener, but Butvilas has won their only recorded meeting, beat Dimitrov in September and has kept his last three defeats close.

No quoted price is worth taking: Basavareddy to win at 1.50, the match to finish in straight sets at 1.50, Basavareddy to take the first set at 1.55 and Basavareddy to win 2-0 at 2.20 all ask more than the evidence supports.

Context

Butvilas's win in the 2024 Charleston final is the only completed meeting between the two and the one piece of direct evidence running against the ranking gap. It came on hard court, the surface here, and in a title match, so it is a genuine test of how the pair match up. The result is now nearly two years old and both players' levels have moved: Basavareddy has since reached the top 100 and won a Challenger in September 2026, while Butvilas is still ranked outside the top 190.
- The only previous meeting was the 2024 Charleston Challenger final, won by Butvilas 6-4 6-3 on a hard court.
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest
The title was Basavareddy's second Challenger crown of 2026 and his fourth overall, and it lifted him back to No. 139. It confirms he can win a full week on hard courts, including a three-set win over Keaton Hance. The counterpoint is that his next tournament, Shanghai qualifying on 5 October, ended in a 7-6(8) 6-3 first-round loss to Kimmer Coppejans, so the title has not carried directly into tour-level qualifying form.
- Basavareddy won his fourth ATP Challenger title at San Diego in September 2026, defeating Igor Marcondes 7-5 6-4 in the final and returning to No. 139.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest
The Dimitrov win is the strongest name on Butvilas's recent record and shows the level he is capable of on a hard court. It was followed at the same event by a 6-4 6-3 loss to Harold Mayot, and his results since have been mixed: a 7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(5) loss to Jerome Kym in Porto, a narrow defeat to Max Hans Rehberg in Alicante, and a 7-6(4) 7-6(5) loss to Jan Kumstat in Olbia on 13 October. The pattern is one of competitive but unclosed matches rather than a sustained run.
- Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 at the Saint-Tropez Challenger on 22 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Basavareddy, the higher-ranked of the two, has been at his most secure early in matches on hard courts.
Basavareddy's first sets have averaged 5.8 games won to 3.8 lost, and he won 2-0 in six of those eleven matches, so a fast start is the likeliest shape of this match. His second-set numbers slip to 6-5 and 4.9 games won to 4.2 lost, which is why his matches can tighten after the opening set. The sample is small, covering 18 August to 5 October, and excludes one retirement.
- Hard-court set data cover 11 completed matches from 18 August to 5 October 2026, excluding one retirement.
- First sets: 9-2, averaging 5.8 games won and 3.8 games lost. Second sets: 6-5, averaging 4.9 games won and 4.2 games lost.
- Six of the eleven matches finished 2-0, with an average of 21.3 total games per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nishesh Basavareddy

1.50fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 66.7%

−2.7ppshort

Basavareddy is the higher-ranked player with the stronger recent hard-court record and has been a reliable front-runner in first sets.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 66.7%

−2.7ppshort

Straight-set results are the most common outcome for both players, especially when Basavareddy controls the match.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nishesh Basavareddy

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

−2.5ppshort

Basavareddy has been the stronger first-set starter of the two on hard courts.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Nishesh Basavareddy 2-0

2.20fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 45.5%

−2.5ppshort

Straight-set wins are Basavareddy's most frequent recent outcome and the likeliest route if he wins.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Basavareddy is the higher-ranked player with the stronger recent hard-court record and has been a reliable front-runner in first sets.
- Basavareddy is 8-4 on hard in his last 12 completed matches; Butvilas is 6-8 on the same surface
- Hard-court set evidence: Basavareddy 8-3 in matches and 9-2 in first sets; Butvilas 6-8 and 9-5 in first sets
- Basavareddy is ranked No. 139 to Butvilas's No. 199 and won the San Diego Challenger in late September
- Butvilas has lost three straight (Oct 2, Oct 7, Oct 13), though two went the distance
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNishesh BasavareddyEstimated chance64%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas keeps matches close and Basavareddy has rarely beaten similar-level opponents by five games.
- Basavareddy's last six completed hard-court margins were -4, +4, +7, +5, +6, -6
- Only three of those six exceeded a five-game margin
- Butvilas's margins in his last four matches: -2, +1, -3, +7
- Butvilas has gone to a deciding set in five of his fourteen hard-court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostEdas Butvilas +4.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas has been competitive in defeat and loses by small margins often enough to stay within three games.
- Basavareddy's last six completed hard-court margins were -4, +4, +7, +5, +6, -6
- Only four of those six were won by three or more games
- Butvilas's recent results include a one-game win over Max Hans Rehberg and a two-game loss to Jan Kumstat
- Butvilas has taken four of his last fourteen hard matches to a deciding set
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostEdas Butvilas +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players produce fairly long first sets, and Butvilas's are particularly extended.
- Basavareddy's first sets average 9.6 total games
- Butvilas's first sets average 10.8 total games
- Butvilas had first-set tiebreaks in 5 of 14 hard matches
- Basavareddy had first-set tiebreaks in 2 of 11
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these players' recent matches trend just below ten games.
- Basavareddy's second sets average 9.1 total games
- He had no second-set tiebreaks in 11 completed hard matches
- Butvilas's second-set games average is 5.2 won to 4.6 lost
- Basavareddy's second-set games average is 4.9 won to 4.2 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basavareddy's recent straight-set wins keep his match totals low, and that is the likelier shape here.
- Basavareddy's last 11 hard-court matches average 21.3 total games
- He won six of those eleven in straight sets
- Butvilas's matches average 24.9 total games but only five of fourteen went the distance
- Basavareddy's most recent match finished 9-13 in games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome for both players, especially when Basavareddy controls the match.
- Basavareddy has won 2-0 in six of eleven hard-court matches
- Butvilas's scorelines include five 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses
- Basavareddy's average sets per match is 2.27
- Only eight of the combined 25 matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Basavareddy has been the stronger first-set starter of the two on hard courts.
- Basavareddy has won the first set in 9 of 11 hard-court matches
- Butvilas has won the first set in 9 of 14 hard-court matches
- Basavareddy's first-set games average is 5.8 won to 3.8 lost
- Butvilas's first-set games average is 5.9 won to 4.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNishesh BasavareddyEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is much closer for both players, with Basavareddy holding a slight edge.
- Basavareddy has won 6 of 11 second sets on hard courts
- Butvilas has won 6 of 14 second sets on the same surface
- Basavareddy's second-set games average is 4.9 won to 4.2 lost
- Butvilas's second-set games average is 5.2 won to 4.6 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNishesh BasavareddyEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basavareddy's matches frequently finish without a tiebreak, and clean break-heavy sets are common.
- Basavareddy had a tiebreak in only 2 of 11 hard-court matches
- Butvilas had none in 7 of his 14
- Six of Basavareddy's eleven hard matches were 2-0 wins
- Basavareddy's second sets had no tiebreaks in eleven matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Nishesh Basavareddy: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Nishesh Basavareddy matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nishesh Basavareddy4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·ATP Geneva

#271Daniel Elahi Galan0-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·62%

Matched

16 May 2026

ATP Geneva

#271Daniel Elahi Galan0-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

62%probability

Nishesh Basavareddy won

Matched

12 May·Oeiras - Portugal

#214Genaro Alberto Olivieri1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·62%

Matched

12 May 2026

Oeiras - Portugal

#214Genaro Alberto Olivieri1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

62%probability

Nishesh Basavareddy won

Matched

7 May·Francavilla - Italy

#207Jay Clarke2-0#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·62%

Missed

7 May 2026

Francavilla - Italy

#207Jay Clarke2-0#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

62%probability

Jay Clarke won

Missed

4 May·Francavilla - Italy

#242Alejandro Moro Canas1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

BetBugsNishesh Basavareddy to win·60%

Matched

4 May 2026

Francavilla - Italy

#242Alejandro Moro Canas1-2#154Nishesh Basavareddy

Nishesh Basavareddy to win

60%probability

Nishesh Basavareddy won

Matched

Nishesh Basavareddy

10W 5L

7-6(8) 6-3#232Kimmer Coppejans

7-5 6-4#274Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-7(10) 6-4 5-1 ret.#264Dylan Dietrich

6-3 6-2#203Andres Andrade

6-2 4-6 6-3#776Keaton Hance

6-3 6-3#327Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-4#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2#274Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 6-1#56Arthur Gea

6-2 6-4#167Luka Mikrut

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#201Moise Kouame

3-6 6-3 6-4#145Andrea Pellegrino

7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 6-3#35Alex Michelsen

7-6(5) 7-6(5) 6-7(9) 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

Edas Butvilas

7W 8L

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#191Jan Kumstat

1-6 6-4 7-5#280Max Hans Rehberg

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#249Jerome Kym

6-1 7-5#356Moez Echargui

6-4 6-1#345Michael Geerts

6-4 6-3#186Harold Mayot

7-6(3) 6-3#127Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#61Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#248Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#506Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#570Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#528Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#227Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#120Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#315Daniel Milavsky

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNishesh BasavareddyBasavareddy

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Nishesh Basavareddy carries the stronger recent form — Edas Butvilas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.7%+6.3pp64.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.9%+0.9pp71.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1555.3%+3.4pp51.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.2+0.34.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.32.5 fewer1.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.8%—39.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1547.3%—47.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1568.9%+12.9pp56.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.4%—51.8%

Serve · 3–2

57.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.3pp64.0%

71.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp71.0%

55.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.4pp51.9%

5.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.34.9

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.5 fewer1.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—39.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

47.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—47.3%

68.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+12.9pp56.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.8%