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Predictions graded

Kimmer Coppejans #232Belgium0Andrea Guerrieri #165Italy2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions8–467%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Guerrieri · 67 places

Kimmer Coppejans

Belgium

Belgian player, born 7 February 1994. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-best singles ranking was No. 97 in June 2015.

Current ranking: #232
Peak ranking: #97 · 2015
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 213 on 20 July 2026. He is listed as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #213 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 03:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Guerrieri, the higher-ranked left-hander, is the likely winner of this Brussels qualifying opener, but Coppejans is at home and beat two better-ranked players in Shanghai qualifying.

Guerrieri regularly drops a set: eight of his last 14 hard-court matches went the distance. The 1.45 match price and 1.55 opening-set price ask more than his record supports. Two prices hold up: Coppejans to win at 2.75 and the match to go past two sets at 2.4.

Context

Reaching a Masters 1000 main draw through qualifying is the strongest recent result on Coppejans's record and shows he can win hard-court matches above Challenger level. It also explains why he arrives in Brussels off a long trip and a surface switch, having played one clay-court match in Portugal in between. That Shanghai run sets his current level but does not guarantee he reproduces it at home against a seeded opponent.
- Coppejans won two qualifying matches to reach the Shanghai Masters main draw
- Tsitsipas beat Coppejans 6-3 7-5 in Shanghai
- Vilius Gaubas beat Coppejans 6-3 6-4 in Maia
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Guerrieri's second set is the softest part of his hard-court record: he is 5-9 in it across 14 matches, which is why eight of those matches reached a decider. Coppejans's five hard-court matches all ended in straight sets, so the two players' recent patterns pull in opposite directions on match length.
- Eight of 14 hard-court matches (7 August–14 October 2026) reached a third set
- Total games average 24.1 per match across 14 hard-court matches
- Second-set record 5-9, with 4.5 games won against 5.4 lost
Guerrieri's first serve is his clearest statistical strength and the main reason he holds the higher ranking; 4.3 double faults per match hand Coppejans free points elsewhere. Break points are where Guerrieri is most dependable, saving 60.8% of them, while he converts only 38.6% of his own chances.
- First-serve points won 69.5% (444 of 639) across 15 tracked matches
- Break points saved 60.8% (62 of 102)
- Double faults 4.3 per match (65 in 15 matches)
- Break points converted 38.6% (44 of 114)
This is a qualifying first-round match, so the winner must win again in qualifying to reach the main draw. The setting is an ATP 250 in Brussels rather than a Challenger, which raises the level of the occasion for two players who usually compete one tier below. The venue and round establish the stakes and the surface context but do not by themselves create a playing edge for either player.
- The European Open qualifying draw pairs Andrea Guerrieri with Kimmer Coppejans in the first round
- The match is listed on Center Court at 4pm local on the opening qualifying day
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andrea Guerrieri -0.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

A one-game margin comes with winning the match, and Guerrieri wins most of his hard matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri is the higher-ranked and more consistent hard-court player, with better serve numbers over a larger recent sample.
- Ranked 165 vs Coppejans 232
- Hard-court record 9-6 across 15 tracked matches
- First-serve points won 69.5%, break points saved 60.8%
- Average 4.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance58%

Games4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coppejans keeps within four games in most of his hard matches, and Guerrieri has several one-sided defeats.
- Coppejans clears +3.5 by losing by three games or fewer
- Guerrieri lost 0-2 in 4 of 14 hard matches
- Coppejans's hard wins came by seven and four games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKimmer Coppejans +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
A one-game margin comes with winning the match, and Guerrieri wins most of his hard matches.
- Guerrieri hard record 9-6
- Winning the match means winning the game count
- Guerrieri's recent hard win margins were +7, +6 and +5 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrea Guerrieri -0.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri's hard matches routinely stretch well past 21 games, and his recent three-setters all went beyond 25.
- Guerrieri's 14 hard matches average 24.1 total games
- Coppejans's 5 hard matches average 18.2 total games
- Guerrieri's recent three-setters lasted 26, 35 and 31 games
- Guerrieri averages 4.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Coppejans clears a three-game cushion in most of his hard matches, and Guerrieri has several lopsided defeats.
- Coppejans's hard game margins: +7, +4 and -5
- He clears +2.5 by losing by two games or fewer
- Guerrieri lost 0-2 in 4 of 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKimmer Coppejans +2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set-one totals for both players sit just under nine and a half games.
- Coppejans set1 averages 9.2 total games
- Guerrieri set1 averages 9.36 total games
- Guerrieri set1 games 4.7 won vs 4.6 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Guerrieri's hard-court wins came by comfortable game margins, and he clears two games in about half his recent matches.
- Guerrieri's last six hard game margins: -5, +7, -7, +6, +1, +5
- Three of those six cleared a two-game margin
- Guerrieri won 3 of those 6 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrea Guerrieri -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Guerrieri has a level opening-set record and the stronger serve, while Coppejans has lost three of five first sets on hard.
- Guerrieri hard set1 record 7-7; Coppejans 2-3
- Guerrieri set1 games 4.7 won vs 4.6 lost
- Guerrieri wins 69.5% of first-serve points
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri is the stronger player overall, but the second set is the weakest part of his hard-court record.
- Guerrieri hard set2 record 5-9
- Coppejans hard set2 record 2-3
- Guerrieri set2 games 4.5 won vs 5.4 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Coppejans has not played a three-setter on hard in his recent sample, and Guerrieri has six straight-set results in fourteen.
- Coppejans's five hard matches all finished in straight sets
- Coppejans averages 2.0 sets per hard match
- Guerrieri's 2-0 wins and 0-2 losses account for 6 of his 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appeared in a minority of both players' recent hard matches.
- Guerrieri had a tiebreak in 4 of 14 hard matches
- Coppejans had a tiebreak in 1 of 5 hard matches
- Guerrieri set1 games 4.7 won vs 4.6 lost
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%

Kimmer Coppejans

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#141Vilius Gaubas

6-3 7-5#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-2#112Dane Sweeny

7-6(8) 6-3#139Nishesh Basavareddy

6-1 6-1#167Luka Mikrut

7-6(6) ret.#310Sean Cuenin

6-3 4-6 6-3#144Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-2#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-1 6-4#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-1#280Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-1#349Miguel Damas

6-2 6-0#104Martin Damm

6-2 7-6(3)#321Guy Den Ouden

6-2 6-1#383Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#435Louis Wessels

Andrea Guerrieri

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#238Maks Kasnikowski

6-2 6-3#291Abedallah Shelbayh

7-5 6-1#236August Holmgren

6-4 4-6 6-0#314Anton Matusevich

3-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2)#95Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 6-2 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4#430Aziz Dougaz

3-6 6-4 6-1#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#236August Holmgren

6-3 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 1-6 6-1#531Alexander Donski

7-6(4) 6-1#176Joel Schwaerzler

0-6 6-3 6-4#178Daniil Glinka

4-6 7-5 6-2#282Michele Ribecai

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KCKimmer CoppejansCoppejans

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Andrea GuerrieriGuerrieriAG

Andrea Guerrieri carries the stronger recent form — Kimmer Coppejans's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.8%+4.9pp55.9%

1st Serve Won67.9%+1.6pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won46.6%+6.9pp53.5%

Aces / Match2.9—3.1

Double Faults / Match1.92.4 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.3%+2.1pp39.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.5%+0.9pp38.6%

Break Pts Saved42.9%+17.9pp60.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.0%+2.7pp50.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.8%1st Serve In+4.9pp55.9%

67.9%1st Serve Won+1.6pp69.5%

46.6%2nd Serve Won+6.9pp53.5%

2.9Aces / Match—3.1

1.9Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won+2.1pp39.4%

Pressure · 1–1

39.5%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp38.6%

42.9%Break Pts Saved+17.9pp60.8%

Points · 0–1

48.0%Total Pts Won+2.7pp50.7%

Kimmer Coppejans

Andrea Guerrieri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Kimmer Coppejans

Andrea Guerrieri -0.5

Andrea Guerrieri

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 6 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Kimmer Coppejans

Andrea Guerrieri

Stat Battle