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Predictions graded

Harry Wendelken #182United Kingdom1Gauthier Onclin #168Belgium2

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 0-6Sat 17 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions7–464%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGauthier Onclin · 14 places

Harry Wendelken

United Kingdom

A 178 cm British right-hander, Wendelken reached a career-high No. 201 on 3 August 2026. His 2026 season included his ATP and Wimbledon main-draw debuts.

Current ranking: #182
Peak ranking: #201 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

At 25, he reached a career-high No. 167 on 3 August 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #168
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Onclin has the higher ranking and the home crowd in Brussels but arrives with one win in his last six matches, while Wendelken brings the better recent hard-court record and a 7-5 second-set record on hard.

Wendelken is the likelier winner in this first qualifying round, though not comfortably. Of the quoted prices, only Over 2.5 sets at 2.30 carries a value case; Wendelken at 1.85 is close to fair and Onclin at 1.95 is one to leave.

Context

Wendelken has been a slow starter on hard courts in this window, winning only 4 of 12 first sets.
Wendelken has lost the opening set in eight of 12 completed hard-court matches between 29 July and 1 October 2026, so an early lead for Onclin is a realistic route into the match. His second-set record in the same sample is much stronger at 7 of 12. One retirement is excluded from that 12-match set-level sample.
- Wendelken won 4 of 12 first sets and 7 of 12 second sets in 12 completed hard-court matches between 29 July and 1 October 2026.
- His first sets average 4.42 games won and 5.33 lost; his second sets average 4.83 won and 4.58 lost.
- The 12-match set sample excludes one retirement and covers best-of-three hard-court matches.
This is the opening day of the 11th European Open in Brussels, and the qualifying event offers a main-draw place at a tour-level ATP tournament rather than a Challenger draw. Both players sit outside the top 160, so the reward is a genuine step up in level and ranking points. The main draw is built around a strong Belgian entry, which gives this fixture more local interest than a routine Challenger first round. The stakes explain the occasion but do not indicate which player handles the step up better.
- The tournament account confirms the 11th edition runs 17-25 October 2026 at Brussels Expo.
- The preliminary entry list reports Felix Auger-Aliassime returning to defend the title.
- The event opens with qualifying on 17 October, two days before the main draw begins.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Onclin is the Belgian in this pairing and is playing a tour-level event in his own country, while his leading compatriots are already in the main draw. That makes him the local player at the entry level of the tournament, with any crowd and venue familiarity sitting on his side. Home support in a qualifying draw is limited in size and effect, so the condition is context rather than a clear sporting edge. It does raise the domestic stakes of reaching the main draw.
- Onclin holds Belgian nationality and is the only Belgian in this pairing.
- The tournament's main-draw Belgian entry is led by Zizou Bergs, Alexander Blockx and Raphael Collignon.
- Onclin must come through the qualifying draw while those compatriots are placed in the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Onclin's first Davis Cup appearance came a month before Brussels, in the opening rubber of Belgium's World Group I tie, and he lost to Jurij Rodionov in straight sets. It is recent evidence of his level against a top-140 opponent, outside the Challenger circuit where most of his results sit. The match followed a mixed run of Challenger results and was itself a clear defeat, so it marks a step up in occasion more than a change in form. It remains the most recent team-level reference point for his game.
- Onclin opened Belgium's World Group I tie against Austria in Vienna .
- Jurij Rodionov won the match 6-4 6-1.
- It was Onclin's first appearance for Belgium in the Davis Cup.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Wendelken's hard-court record and recent wins are stronger, while Onclin has lost four of his last five hard matches to lower-ranked players.
- Wendelken is 7-6 in hard-court matches in this window; Onclin is 5-7.
- Wendelken's recent wins include No. 141 Vilius Gaubas and No. 306 Filippo Romano.
- Onclin's five recent hard-court matches produced one win, over No. 391 Dan Added.
- Onclin has won 46.8% of hard-court games and 48.1% of hard-court points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarry WendelkenEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin covers as long as he avoids a defeat by two or more games, and many recent margins were close.
- Onclin's recent hard matches ended -3, -5, +5, -6 and -7 on games.
- Wendelken's losses came by margins of -5, -6 and -7.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonGauthier Onclin +1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players often extending matches, the game count leans above the line.
- Wendelken's hard-court matches average 25 total games.
- Onclin's average 23.5 total games.
- Both players average about 9.7 games per set.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both players' recent matches typically reach at least ten games.
- Wendelken's first sets average 9.75 games; Onclin's average 9.83.
- Wendelken's first sets average 4.42 games won to 5.33 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken's wins usually carry a positive game margin while Onclin has rarely finished ahead.
- Wendelken's recent hard-court wins finished +8, +7 and +1 on games.
- Onclin's five recent hard matches produced one positive game margin, +5.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostHarry Wendelken -0.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set game counts sit right on the line.
- Wendelken's second sets average 9.42 games; Onclin's average 9.75.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches often go the distance.
- Wendelken has played 7 three-set matches in his last 12 on hard.
- Onclin has played 5 three-set matches in his last 12 on hard.
- The two players average 2.58 and 2.42 sets per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken's second-set record is clearly stronger and Onclin has faded in second sets.
- Wendelken has won 7 of 12 hard-court second sets; Onclin only 4 of 12.
- Onclin has lost 8 of 12 hard-court second sets.
- Wendelken's second sets average 4.83 games won to 4.58 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarry WendelkenEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin has the slightly better first-set record and Wendelken has repeatedly begun matches slowly.
- Wendelken has won 4 of 12 hard-court first sets; Onclin has won 5 of 12.
- Wendelken lost the opening set to Schwaerzler, Jorda Sanchis, Darderi and Gaubas in recent matches.
- Onclin took the opening set against Glinka and Added recently.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGauthier OnclinEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both have mostly avoided tiebreaks.
- Only 2 of Wendelken's last 12 hard-court matches and 2 of Onclin's featured a tiebreak.
- Both players average fewer than ten games per set.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Harry Wendelken

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-1#306Filippo Romano

6-2 6-4#193David Jorda Sanchis

6-2 6-3—Angel Veliz

6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5#21Luciano Darderi

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#141Vilius Gaubas

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#227Remy Bertola

6-4 3-6 6-3#173Stefano Travaglia

5-7 6-2 7-5#110Lloyd Harris

2-6 6-4 6-1#290Stefan Kozlov

3-6 6-3 6-1#150Borna Gojo

6-4 6-2#151Michael Mmoh

6-2 2-6 7-5#590Keegan Rice

6-5 ret.#273Murphy Cassone

4-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#105Valentin Royer

Gauthier Onclin

6W 9L

6-4 6-7(3) 6-4#198Felix Balshaw

4-6 6-2 6-3#178Daniil Glinka

6-1 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(4) 6-2#391Dan Added

6-4 6-1#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-2#301Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-4#68Vit Kopriva

2-6 6-2 6-3#210Timofey Skatov

6-4 5-7 6-4#233Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 6-4#620Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-3#203Andres Andrade

6-4 3-6 6-3#344Tyler Zink

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#190Diego Dedura

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#164Tom Gentzsch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HWHarry WendelkenWendelken

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Gauthier OnclinOnclinGO

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 13/1551.9%+5.1pp57.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/1568.8%+2.6pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/1549.1%+2.1pp51.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 13/154.2+2.02.2

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/154.01.5 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/1539.9%+2.5pp37.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/1540.2%+6.0pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/1556.9%+2.8pp54.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/1549.3%—48.7%

Serve · 2–3

51.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 13/15+5.1pp57.0%

68.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+2.6pp66.2%

49.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+2.1pp51.2%

4.2Aces / Match14/15 · 13/15+2.02.2

4.0Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/151.5 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

39.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+2.5pp37.4%

Pressure · 1–1

40.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/15+6.0pp46.2%

56.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/15+2.8pp54.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/15—48.7%