FranceRoanne - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Matisse Bobichon #571France2Billy Harris #241United Kingdom0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Wed 14 Oct 2026, 10:14 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBilly Harris · 330 places

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #571
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 22 January 1995. His documented career-high singles ranking is No. 101 in September 2024; no reliable current source established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #241
Peak ranking: #101 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:33 · Europe/Bucharest

A 330-place ranking gap points to Billy Harris, but he has one win in his last five completed matches while Matisse Bobichon arrives with 11 wins in 15 and a career-best victory over Adrian Mannarino.

Harris to win remains the likelier outcome, largely because he has faced far stronger opposition. The one quoted price that gives anything back is Bobichon to win the match at 2.5; Harris at 1.48 and Harris to win 2-0 at 2.2 ask for more than the recent record supports.

Context

Bobichon, 24, was ranked outside the top 600 when he beat Mannarino, the highest-ranked opponent he has defeated. For this fixture it is the clearest current evidence that he can raise his level against a more experienced player, which matters because he sits roughly 330 ranking places below Harris. The win also lifted him towards the top 570 and changed the trajectory of his season. He lost his next match at Rennes to Tristan Schoolkate in straight sets, so the result did not become a sustained run.
- Mannarino was the top seed and ranked around No. 79; Bobichon was ranked No. 604 at the time.
- The 6-3 7-5 win was the highest-ranked opponent he had beaten and put him in the quarter-finals.
- The result moved his ranking towards the top 570.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest
This was Harris's most recent match and he won the opening set before Svrcina turned the match around over more than three hours. Because Svrcina went on to qualify and beat Cameron Norrie in the main draw, the defeat is a measure of the level Harris was able to sustain at a Masters event. For this fixture it is the main recent form signal on his side, showing he remains competitive in long matches but has not been closing them. The limit is that Shanghai is an outdoor hard court while Roanne is indoor, so the comparison is about match sharpness rather than the same surface.
- The match lasted 3 hours 2 minutes.
- Harris won the first set and forced a second-set tiebreak before losing the decider 7-5.
- Svrcina, ranked No. 126, then qualified and beat Cameron Norrie in the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Eleven of Bobichon's 15 matches in this window finished in two sets, and four went the distance, three of which he won. That points to a short first-round match indoors, though his most recent completed match, on 11 October, was a three-set defeat, so the pattern is not fixed.
- The 15 completed hard-court matches run from 4 September to 11 October 2026, all best-of-three.
- Set scorelines: eight 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, three 0-2 defeats and one 1-2 defeat.
- Sets won: 23 of 34 (67.6%); games won: 176 of 314 (56.1%).
Harris's matches have run longer than Bobichon's this autumn, 25.1 games to 20.9, and eight of his 15 needed a tiebreak. His 5-10 record shows the length has not turned into wins, but it does mean sets stay close; both samples are only 15 matches, so treat the gap as a lean rather than a fixed trait.
- Window: 21 July to 5 October 2026, 15 completed hard-court matches in best-of-three.
- Average total games per match: 25.1; average sets per match: 2.4.
- Scorelines: five 1-2 defeats, five 0-2 defeats, four 2-0 wins and one 2-1 win; eight matches with a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Billy Harris 2-0

2.20fair 2.86

BetBugs 35% · Market 45.5%

−10.5ppshort

When Harris wins he usually does it without dropping a set, and Bobichon's four defeats in this window came mostly in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris has been competing at a clearly higher level, beating No. 152 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and taking a set off No. 126 Dalibor Svrcina in Shanghai qualifying, while Bobichon's recent wins have come almost entirely against opponents ranked outside the top 850.
- Harris is ranked No. 241, 330 places above Bobichon
- Harris is 5-10 in his last 15 hard-court matches but has faced top-300 opposition throughout
- Bobichon lost 4-6 4-6 to No. 465 Viktor Durasovic and 8-13 in games to No. 522 Sergio Callejon Hernando in his last two meetings with players inside the top 550
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance57%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average close to or above ten games, so a long first set is marginally the more likely outcome.
- Harris's set 1 average is 10.2 total games (5.13-5.07)
- Bobichon's set 1 average is 9.73 total games (5.27-4.47)
- 2 of Harris's 15 opening sets reached a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's matches tend to run long with tiebreaks and deciding sets, which pushes the total games expectation up towards the line.
- Harris's completed hard-court matches average 25.1 total games
- Bobichon's average 20.9 total games
- Harris has had a tiebreak in 8 of his 15 matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harris's second sets are tight enough to push past ten games on a regular basis, keeping this close to a coin toss.
- Harris's set 2 average is 10.13 total games (5.13-5.00)
- 5 of his 15 second sets reached a tiebreak
- Bobichon's set 2 average is 9.27 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish a majority of their matches in two sets, so a short match is the more likely outcome.
- Bobichon's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets
- 11 of Bobichon's 15 matches finished in straight sets
- 9 of Harris's 15 matches finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
At a higher competitive level Harris starts on roughly level terms in the opening set, and the overall match edge sits with him.
- Harris has won the opening set in 7 of 15 hard-court matches
- Bobichon has won the opening set in 10 of 15
- Harris averages 5.13 games to 5.07 in set 1
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's second sets are closely contested but he wins them about as often as he loses them, and the overall quality edge sits with him.
- Harris has won set 2 in 7 of 15 hard-court matches
- He averages 5.13 games to 5.00 in the second set
- 5 of his 15 second sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double fault at similar, moderate rates, and the combined expectation sits just below the line.
- Bobichon averages 3.4 double faults per match
- Harris averages 3.7 double faults per match
- Their combined average is roughly 7.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve enough aces that the combined total sits just above the line in an average-length match.
- Bobichon averages 5.6 aces per match across 14 matched charts
- Harris averages 5.1 aces per match across 15 matches
- Their combined average is roughly 10.7 for a two-to-three-set match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon has been winning sets without needing tiebreaks, and most of his recent matches finished in straight sets.
- Only 3 of Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- His set 1 and set 2 tiebreak counts are 2 and 1
- He won 12-0 and 12-6 in games in two recent straight-set wins
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance52%

Matisse Bobichon

11W 4L

6-1 1-6 6-1#522Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-4 6-2#1149Alejandro Garcia

7-5 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

6-0 6-0#899Leonid Sheyngezikht

7-5 6-0—Carlos Giraldi

6-4 6-4#465Viktor Durasovic

6-2 6-1#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#83Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-4#384Eliakim Coulibaly

7-6(6) 6-3#416Justin Boulais

6-2 6-4#1755Alex Kobelt

7-6(4) 6-1#140Jurij Rodionov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#416Justin Boulais

6-3 5-7 6-0#881Adil Kalyanpur

6-4 5-7 6-1#635Nicolas Tepmahc

Billy Harris

5W 10L

4-6 7-6(6) 7-5#126Dalibor Svrcina

7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(3)#198Felix Balshaw

7-6(3) 6-4#273Murphy Cassone

3-6 6-3 7-5#152Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 7-6(4)#305Ugo Blanchet

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#356Moez Echargui

7-5 6-3#269Hugo Grenier

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#198Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#260Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#269Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#100Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#183Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#76Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#291Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#369Dhakshineswar Suresh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMatisse BobichonBobichon

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Billy HarrisHarrisBH

Matisse Bobichon carries the stronger recent form — Billy Harris's route runs through 1st serve in.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1560.0%—60.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.0%+6.3pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.4%+4.1pp48.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.6+0.55.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.40.3 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.8%+3.4pp38.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.9%+2.2pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1571.1%+10.4pp60.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.1%+3.9pp49.2%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

60.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—60.0%

73.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp66.7%

52.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.1pp48.3%

5.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.55.1

3.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.3 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

41.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp38.4%

Pressure · 2–0

43.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp41.7%

71.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+10.4pp60.7%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.9pp49.2%