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Predictions graded

Laurent Lokoli #348France1Georgii Kravchenko #313Ukraine2

Sets 7-6 · 5-7 · 6-7Tue 13 Oct 2026, 10:13 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGeorgii Kravchenko · 35 places

Laurent Lokoli

France

Lokoli, 31, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-best singles ranking was No. 167 in February 2023.

Current ranking: #348
Peak ranking: #167 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Georgii Kravchenko

Ukraine

Ukrainian right-hander born 28 July 2000. Public player pages list a career-best singles ranking of No. 371; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #313
Peak ranking: #371
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 19:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Kravchenko arrives from two straight-sets qualifying wins into a first-round meeting with Lokoli, who got through as a lucky loser after a three-set qualifying final and needed leg treatment along the way.

Kravchenko is the higher-ranked player and the likelier winner, and the 1.95 on him is the one price worth taking; the 1.75 on Lokoli to win does not.

Context

Lokoli needed treatment on his leg at the start of the second set of the Olbia qualifying final, and the timeout was recorded as his 10th of the season. He played on, took the second set 7-6(1) and lost the decider 6-3, then entered the main draw as a lucky loser on a consecutive match day. The repeating pattern is the concern: ten mid-match interventions in one season point to a persistent physical issue that could limit him across back-to-back tournament days. The counterpoint is that the timeout did not stop him competing and he won a set after it, so an immediate effect on this match is not established.
- Medical timeout called for Lokoli at 2-6, 0-0 against Loffhagen
- Treatment applied to the leg area
- Recorded as Lokoli's 10th medical timeout of the season
- Lokoli still won the second set 7-6(1) after the timeout
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Lokoli's place in the main draw was only secured after he lost the qualifying final, so he starts the tournament as a replacement entrant and faces a consecutive-day turnaround into the first round. The draw then pairs him with Kravchenko, who had already sealed his own main-draw place by winning his qualifying final. This is a route and availability note rather than evidence that the lucky-loser path itself changes the match, since both men completed qualifying on the same day.
- Loffhagen beat Lokoli in the Olbia qualifying final
- Lokoli was added to the main draw as a lucky loser
- Lokoli drawn against Kravchenko in the first round
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Kravchenko won both Olbia qualifying matches in straight sets, closing the final-round win over Daniel Masur with a 7-6(6) tiebreak . That is a lighter workload than the three-set qualifying final Lokoli played, and finishing the tight tiebreak shows he can close out sets under pressure. The limitation is that the wins came against opponents ranked 531 and 380, so the form line is built below the main-draw level he now meets and does not by itself show he can beat a player near his own ranking.
- Kravchenko def. Donski 7-5 6-2 in the Olbia qualifying first round
- Kravchenko def. Masur 6-3 7-6(6) in the qualifying final
- Kravchenko did not drop a set in either match
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Kravchenko reached the Villena main draw through qualifying with a straight-sets win over Hugo Grenier, then lost in the first round to third seed Damir Dzumhur. The Grenier result shows he can beat a higher-ranked opponent around the top 270, while the Dzumhur defeat marks the step up to a top-110 player. His fifth qualifying campaign of the season makes the Olbia run part of a repeating pattern of winning through qualifying rather than a one-off result.
- Kravchenko def. Grenier 7-6(5) 6-4 in Villena qualifying
- Villena was Kravchenko's fifth qualifying event of 2026
- Damir Dzumhur beat Kravchenko 7-5 6-3 in the Villena first round
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:19 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Kravchenko served better and won his two Olbia qualifying matches without dropping a set, while Lokoli arrived through a long qualifying week.
- Kravchenko is 9-6 in his last 15 and 4-4 on hard in this window
- Lokoli is 1-2 on hard in this window
- Kravchenko won both Olbia qualifying matches in straight sets, beating Donski 7-5 6-2 and Masur 6-3 7-6(6)
- Lokoli needed a leg medical timeout in yesterday's three-set qualifying loss to Loffhagen
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGeorgii KravchenkoEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both men have generally reached double figures in games.
- Lokoli's second sets average 10.0 games on hard
- Kravchenko's second sets average 9.6 games on hard
- Lokoli has one second-set tiebreak in this window
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kravchenko's opening sets tend to run past nine games, and the two players' serving is of similar quality.
- Kravchenko's first sets average 10.4 games on hard
- Lokoli's first sets average 8.3 games on hard
- Kravchenko has one first-set tiebreak in this window
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average slightly under this line, and Kravchenko has often closed sets with a break.
- Lokoli's hard-court match average is 21.3 games
- Kravchenko's hard-court match average is 21.3 games
- Kravchenko has won straight sets by clear margins, such as 6-2 and 6-4
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished their hard-court matches in two sets, and Kravchenko has been closing out wins quickly.
- Lokoli's three hard matches: one three-setter, two straight-setters
- Kravchenko's eight hard matches: one three-setter, seven straight-setters
- Kravchenko won both Olbia qualifying rounds in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kravchenko has started hard-court matches better and holds a small ranking advantage.
- Kravchenko has won set one in 5 of 8 hard matches in this window
- Lokoli has lost set one in 2 of 3 hard matches
- Kravchenko won the opening set in both Olbia qualifying matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGeorgii KravchenkoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kravchenko has edged the second set in half his hard matches and won it twice in qualifying.
- Kravchenko has won set two in 4 of 8 hard matches
- Lokoli has won set two in 2 of 3 hard matches
- Kravchenko won the second set in both Olbia qualifying matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGeorgii KravchenkoEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' hard-court matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Lokoli has one tiebreak in three hard matches
- Kravchenko has two tiebreaks in eight hard matches
- Across the two samples, three of eleven hard matches included a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%

Prediction history

Georgii Kravchenko: 1/5 recent winner projections matched

1 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Georgii Kravchenko matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Georgii Kravchenko5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#389Georgii Kravchenko0-2#677Jakub Nicod

BetBugsGeorgii Kravchenko to win·55%

Missed

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#389Georgii Kravchenko0-2#677Jakub Nicod

Georgii Kravchenko to win

55%probability

Jakub Nicod won

Missed

19 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#414Mika Brunold2-1#398Georgii Kravchenko

BetBugsGeorgii Kravchenko to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#414Mika Brunold2-1#398Georgii Kravchenko

Georgii Kravchenko to win

62%probability

Mika Brunold won

Missed

13 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#403Georgii Kravchenko2-1#820Daniel Salazar Martinez

BetBugsGeorgii Kravchenko to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#403Georgii Kravchenko2-1#820Daniel Salazar Martinez

Georgii Kravchenko to win

72%probability

Georgii Kravchenko won

Matched

29 Jun·Milan - Italy

#365Norbert Gombos2-1#472Georgii Kravchenko

BetBugsGeorgii Kravchenko to win·62%

Missed

29 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#365Norbert Gombos2-1#472Georgii Kravchenko

Georgii Kravchenko to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Missed

1 Jun·Heilbronn - Germany

#516Georgii Kravchenko1-2#554Max Wiskandt

BetBugsGeorgii Kravchenko to win·55%

Missed

1 Jun 2026

Heilbronn - Germany

#516Georgii Kravchenko1-2#554Max Wiskandt

Georgii Kravchenko to win

55%probability

Max Wiskandt won

Missed

Previous match context available

Laurent Lokoli

9W 6L

6-2 6-7(1) 6-3#374George Loffhagen

6-2 6-2—Marco Dessi

6-4 6-1#494Ivan Ivanov

7-5 6-0#796Gabriele Pennaforti

6-4 6-2#886Matteo Sciahbasi

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#320Samuele Pieri

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#215Pol Martin Tiffon

7-6(5) 6-2#256Daniel Michalski

6-3 6-4#629Daniele Rapagnetta

2-1 ret.#606Andrea De Marchi

7-6(6) 6-3#1466Pasquale De Giorgio

6-2 6-4—Marco Dessi

6-3 6-3#305Ugo Blanchet

6-3 6-3#244Andrej Nedic

6-2 6-1#556Lorenzo Angelini

Georgii Kravchenko

9W 6L

6-3 7-6(6)#380Daniel Masur

7-5 6-2#531Alexander Donski

7-5 6-3#103Damir Dzumhur

7-6(5) 6-4#269Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

2-6 6-3 6-4#594Goncalo Marques

6-3 6-2#700Giorgio Tabacco

6-4 7-5#468Radu Albot

6-0 6-2#619Yanaki Milev

2-6 6-2 6-3#461Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-3#616Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-0 7-6(3)#377Ognjen Milic

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(10)#519Daniel Siniakov

5-7 7-5 6-3#819Dominik Recek

6-4 6-3#808Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LLLaurent LokoliLokoli

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Georgii KravchenkoKravchenkoGK

Georgii Kravchenko carries the stronger recent form — Laurent Lokoli's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In64.1%+1.2pp62.9%

1st Serve Won67.8%+4.1pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won46.3%+5.3pp51.6%

Aces / Match1.7+0.82.5

Double Faults / Match2.70.8 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.4%—41.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.0%+9.7pp34.3%

Break Pts Saved60.2%+2.2pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.9%+1.2pp52.1%

Serve · 1–4

64.1%1st Serve In+1.2pp62.9%

67.8%1st Serve Won+4.1pp71.9%

46.3%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp51.6%

1.7Aces / Match+0.82.5

2.7Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.4%Return Pts Won—41.6%

Pressure · 2–0

44.0%Break Pts Converted+9.7pp34.3%

60.2%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won+1.2pp52.1%