PortugalMaia - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Kimmer Coppejans #232Belgium0Vilius Gaubas #141Lithuania2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 12:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions9–190%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 91 places

Kimmer Coppejans

Belgium

Belgian player, born 7 February 1994. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-best singles ranking was No. 97 in June 2015.

Current ranking: #232
Peak ranking: #97 · 2015
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Lithuanian player, age 21, seeded 14th in the 2026 US Open qualifying draw. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Gaubas and Coppejans open on indoor clay in Maia, Gaubas with the stronger clay form and Coppejans fresh off a run to a first Masters 1000 main draw in Shanghai.

Gaubas, ranked 141, is the likelier winner against No. 232 Coppejans, who has lost his last three clay matches. The reviewed prices — 1.55 on Gaubas to win and 1.6 on him for either of the first two sets — ask more than the form supports, so none is worth taking.

Context

Gaubas required shoulder treatment in both the quarterfinal and the semifinal at Braga and told the umpire it was the same shoulder that had troubled him earlier in the week. The issue sits close to his serve and forehand and arrives three days before his Maia opener, on a slow surface where cheap service points are harder to find. He completed all three matches without retiring, so the problem did not stop him playing in Braga. Whether it restricts him in Maia is unresolved and worth monitoring.
- Gaubas took a shoulder medical timeout in his Braga quarterfinal against Luka Mikrut .
- He took another shoulder medical timeout in the semifinal against Elmer Moller .
- He told the umpire it was the same shoulder treated in earlier matches that week.
- He completed both matches without retiring.
To watchSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Coppejans answered a late call-up for Shanghai qualifying, flew in over the weekend and won two matches before facing Tsitsipas on centre court, a first ATP Masters 1000 main draw at 32. The run shows he is match-tough and competing above his ranking, but it was built on hard courts with almost no preparation for the switch to clay. Travel from China and the surface change leave him with fewer clay reps than Gaubas, who stayed in Portugal. The result does not give him a current edge on this surface.
- Coppejans won two qualifying matches at the 2026 Shanghai Masters.
- He lost 6-3 7-5 to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round .
- The appearance was his first in an ATP Masters 1000 main draw, at age 32.
- He received a late call-up, arrived on 5 October and played qualifying the next day.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Gaubas carried a 2025 Braga runner-up finish into another deep run in 2026, winning three clay matches and taking Elmer Moller to a deciding set in the semifinal. That gives him recent clay rhythm in Portugal and evidence he can sustain a deep week at this level. The semifinal finished, three days before Maia, so he arrives with more accumulated court time than Coppejans. The run came at a different event, which limits how directly it transfers to the Maia draw.
- Gaubas won three clay matches at the 2026 Braga Challenger.
- He lost 6-2 4-6 6-4 to Elmer Moller in the semifinals .
- He was the 2025 runner-up at the same event.
- The semifinal went to a deciding set.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest
His clay second sets have averaged 10.5 games, with 5.64 won to 4.91 lost and two of the three tiebreaks he has played in this stretch; his first sets have averaged 8.5. That 8-3 second-set record sits against a 6-5 first-set mark over the same 11 matches. The sample is small and says nothing certain about how he starts in Maia.
- Gaubas has won 8 of 11 clay second sets and lost 3, across matches from 21 July to 10 October 2026.
- His clay second sets averaged 10.5 games, winning 5.64 and losing 4.91 per set.
- His first-set record in the same 11 clay matches is 6-5, averaging 8.5 games.
- Two of his three clay tiebreaks came in second sets; the sample's total games average is 22.2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

−2.5ppshort

Gaubas is the higher-ranked player with the better clay win rate and clearly healthier recent clay game margins, while Coppejans has lost his last three clay matches.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

Gaubas has been notably stronger in second sets on clay, winning eight of 11.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

−5.5ppshort

Gaubas has a positive first-set game difference on clay, while Coppejans has lost more opening sets than he has won.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Gaubas is the higher-ranked player with the better clay win rate and clearly healthier recent clay game margins, while Coppejans has lost his last three clay matches.
- Gaubas clay record: 6-5 in 11 matches, 57.7% of sets won
- Coppejans clay record: 4-5 in 9 matches, set1 won 4 of 9
- Recent clay game margins: Gaubas +1.0 average (5 matches), Coppejans -6.7 average (3 matches)
- Rankings: Gaubas 141, Coppejans 232
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas has finished ahead on games across his recent clay matches while Coppejans has trailed in all three of his.
- Gaubas recent clay game margins: +6, +3, +7, -7, -4 (average +1.0)
- Coppejans recent clay game margins: -10, -4, -6
- Gaubas clay games won: 51.2%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonVilius Gaubas -0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clay first sets have averaged under nine games for both players, with only one first-set tiebreak between them.
- Coppejans clay set1 total games average 9.0
- Gaubas clay set1 total games average 8.5
- First-set tiebreaks: 1 in 20 combined clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas' clay second sets have averaged 10.5 games with two tiebreaks, pushing the total above the line.
- Gaubas clay set2 total games average 10.5
- Coppejans clay set2 total games average 8.7
- Gaubas set2 tiebreaks: 2 of 11
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay average sits right at the line, and Gaubas' long second sets pull the match total upward.
- Gaubas clay total games average 22.2
- Coppejans clay total games average 18.7
- Combined clay total games average 20.6
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have finished most of their clay matches in straight sets, with 15 of their combined 20 going two sets.
- Coppejans clay: two-set matches in 8 of 9
- Gaubas clay: two-set matches in 7 of 11
- Combined three-set rate: 5 of 20
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Gaubas has been notably stronger in second sets on clay, winning eight of 11.
- Gaubas set2 record on clay: 8-3
- Coppejans set2 record on clay: 5-4
- Gaubas set2 games: 5.64 won, 4.91 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Gaubas has a positive first-set game difference on clay, while Coppejans has lost more opening sets than he has won.
- Gaubas set1 record on clay: 6-5
- Coppejans set1 record on clay: 4-5
- Gaubas set1 games: 4.45 won, 4.09 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare across both players' recent clay matches, appearing in only three of 20.
- Coppejans: 1 of 9 clay matches had a tiebreak
- Gaubas: 2 of 11 clay matches had a tiebreak
- Combined: 3 of 20 clay matches had a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Kimmer Coppejans

7W 8L

6-3 7-5#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-2#112Dane Sweeny

7-6(8) 6-3#139Nishesh Basavareddy

6-1 6-1#167Luka Mikrut

7-6(6) ret.#310Sean Cuenin

6-3 4-6 6-3#144Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-2#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-1 6-4#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-1#280Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-1#349Miguel Damas

6-2 6-0#104Martin Damm

6-2 7-6(3)#321Guy Den Ouden

6-2 6-1#383Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#435Louis Wessels

6-2 7-5#242Pedro Boscardin Dias

Vilius Gaubas

8W 7L

6-2 4-6 6-4#181Elmer Moller

6-2 6-4#167Luka Mikrut

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#353Duje Ajdukovic

6-1 7-5#584Joao Domingues

6-4 6-4#78Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 3-6 6-0#410Pavel Lagutin

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-3#163Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-6(1)#270Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-4 6-4#226Max Houkes

6-2 6-3#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#287Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-1 7-5#207Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-3#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KCKimmer CoppejansCoppejans

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Vilius GaubasGaubasVG

Vilius Gaubas carries the stronger recent form — Kimmer Coppejans's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.5%+2.1pp63.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.6%+0.9pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.1%+2.1pp49.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.0—2.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.90.5 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.5%+1.6pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.5%+5.4pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1544.3%+12.0pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.9%+2.0pp50.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp63.6%

68.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp67.7%

47.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp49.2%

3.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—2.9

1.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.5 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

41.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.4pp46.9%

44.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+12.0pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp50.9%