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Predictions graded

Jan Kumstat #191Czechia2Edas Butvilas #199Lithuania0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 14:17 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJan Kumstat · 8 places

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

Nineteen-year-old Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand, standing 196 cm. He reached career-high No. 336 in August 2026 and is listed as preferring hard courts.

Current ranking: #191
Peak ranking: #336 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #199
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Kumstat brings a 13-1 run but arrives after a six-week gap, while Butvilas has the hard-court matches behind him and usually leads after the first set.

The likely outcome is a narrow Butvilas win, supplied at 55 per cent on low confidence. No quoted price was supplied for this match, so there is nothing here to weigh as value.

Context

Six weeks without a recorded match makes Kumstat's competitive rhythm the least established part of this fixture. He was removed from the Porto Challenger entry list for the week of 22-28 September, so his preparation since the end of August has been training-based rather than live match play. Butvilas, by contrast, has competed continuously through late September and early October, including a Davis Cup tie and two hard-court events. No reason for the withdrawal has been published, so the gap may reflect rest or a scheduling decision as much as anything physical, and Olbia will be Kumstat's first hard-court match in the tracked window.
- Kumstat's most recent recorded match before Olbia was a 6-4 6-3 loss to Juan Pablo Varillas on 31 August 2026.
- He was listed as OUT of the Porto Challenger entry list for Week 39 in late September 2026, with Edas Butvilas listed IN.
- No later Kumstat match appears between that defeat and the 13 October kickoff.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest
The win over Dimitrov is the strongest result on Butvilas's recent record and it came on hard courts, the surface used at Olbia, against a seeded former world No. 3. It shows he can hold his level against a higher-profile opponent in a main-draw setting rather than only against lower-ranked Challenger fields. The qualification is that Dimitrov, 35, was on a poor run and made uncharacteristic errors, and Butvilas lost his next two completed matches before Olbia, so the result stands as a high point rather than a sustained trend.
- Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 in the opening round at Saint-Tropez .
- Dimitrov, a former world No. 3, was seeded sixth at the tournament.
- The win moved Butvilas into the second round of the 125-level event.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest
The quicker outdoor hard court fits a season Butvilas has built almost entirely on hard courts, and it asks Kumstat to reproduce a clay-based run on a surface he has not competed on in the tracked window. With only eight ranking places between them, surface is one of the clearest objective differences in the matchup. This remains a general surface contrast rather than a documented court-specific edge at this venue: the Olbia event uses standard outdoor hard and neither player has commented on the conditions.
- The Olbia Challenger is a 125-level event at Tennis Club Terranova, played on outdoor hard from 11 to 18 October 2026.
- Kumstat's last fifteen tracked matches were on clay.
- Butvilas's last fifteen tracked matches are almost all on hard, with one indoor hard match.
- Kumstat is ranked No. 191 and Butvilas No. 199, eight places apart.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Butvilas has a settled hard-court sample of 14 completed matches in the two months before Olbia, and he usually leads after the first set. The counterweight sits in the same numbers: he is only 7-7 in those matches, and they run long, averaging 24.5 games with a tiebreak in six of the 14. Winning the opening set has not reliably converted into a win for him at this level.
- Butvilas's hard-court set evidence covers 14 completed matches from 11 August to 7 October 2026.
- He won the opening set in 10 of those 14 matches and lost it in 4.
- The 14 matches averaged 24.5 games, with a tiebreak in 6.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas has recent hard-court evidence and starts sets well, while Kumstat's strong recent record comes entirely on clay.
- Butvilas has 14 completed hard-court matches in the sample, going 7-7.
- Kumstat has no completed hard-court matches tracked in the same window.
- Butvilas won the first set in 10 of 14 hard-court matches.
- The rankings are close: Kumstat 191 and Butvilas 199.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance55%

Jan Kumstat

14W 1L

6-4 6-3#200Juan Pablo Varillas

5-7 6-3 6-0#225Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 6-4#289Filip Cristian Jianu

6-1 7-5#217Maxim Mrva

7-5 6-3#253Sumit Nagal

7-5 6-1#359Petr Brunclik

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#239Marvin Moeller

6-4 5-7 6-2#255Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

7-5 ret.#361Carlos Taberner

6-4 7-6(4)#226Max Houkes

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#609Jamie Mackenzie

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#880Tom Zeuch

6-2 7-6(3)#823Alan Wazny

6-3 6-1#183Gonzalo Bueno

7-5 6-4#253Sumit Nagal

Edas Butvilas

8W 7L

1-6 6-4 7-5#280Max Hans Rehberg

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#249Jerome Kym

6-1 7-5#356Moez Echargui

6-4 6-1#345Michael Geerts

6-4 6-3#186Harold Mayot

7-6(3) 6-3#127Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#61Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#248Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#506Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#570Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#528Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#227Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#120Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#315Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#151Michael Mmoh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJan KumstatKumstat

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Jan Kumstat carries the stronger recent form — Edas Butvilas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.7%+8.5pp64.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1579.9%+8.8pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1558.4%+7.2pp51.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.9+3.44.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.30.7 fewer1.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.4%—40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1535.2%+14.3pp49.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1578.3%+22.5pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1554.6%+2.2pp52.4%

Serve · 3–2

55.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+8.5pp64.2%

79.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.8pp71.1%

58.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.2pp51.2%

7.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.44.5

2.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer1.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

35.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+14.3pp49.5%

78.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+22.5pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp52.4%