FranceRoanne - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jakub Paul #869Switzerland0Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152Norway2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Tue 13 Oct 2026, 12:26 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 717 places

Jakub Paul

Switzerland

Structured player data lists him at No. 808, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 180 cm tall.

Current ranking: #869
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Structured profile lists him at No. 152 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 19:33 · Europe/Bucharest

An 869-ranked qualifier against the No. 152 sixth seed on indoor hard: Budkov Kjaer is the likely winner, but his 1.18 price asks for a dominance his level hard-court record and two-week layoff do not support.

Paul, sharp after two wins in two days, is the only price worth taking at 4.2.

Context

Budkov Kjaer, at No. 152, is more than 700 ranking places above Paul and holds the sixth seeding in Roanne. The only direct evidence between them is the May 2026 clay match, in which Paul took the opening tie-break before Budkov Kjaer won the next two sets. That result offers limited guidance for an indoor hard court, where Paul has played most of his recent matches and Budkov Kjaer has been less consistent. It still shows Paul can take a set from the higher-ranked player.
- Paul came through qualifying to reach the Roanne main draw
- Budkov Kjaer is seeded sixth at Roanne
- The May 2026 clay match went to Budkov Kjaer 6-7(8) 6-1 6-4
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Budkov Kjaer has not competed since losing a third-set tie-break to a lower-ranked opponent, an unusually long gap for a player at No. 152 that leaves his match rhythm as the main unknown. The break does mean he arrives fresher than Paul, who has played twice in Roanne in the previous two days. The defeat also fits an uneven late-season hard-court record in which he has both beaten and lost to opponents ranked well below him.
- Balshaw beat Budkov Kjaer in a third-set tie-break
- The match was at the Open de Vendée
- Budkov Kjaer is ranked No. 152
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the sixth seed at Roanne and the higher-ranked player at No. 152.
Eight of Budkov Kjaer's 14 hard-court matches ended in straight sets, four each way, while six went the distance and five contained a tie-break. He lost the opening set six times, so dropping the first set has not been decisive for him. The level 7-7 return over the sample fits a player whose level moves between matches rather than one in settled form.
- Budkov Kjaer's 14 completed hard-court matches ran from 11 August to 1 October 2026
- Scorelines: four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 defeats, three 2-1 wins and three 1-2 defeats
- Five matches included a tie-break and he averaged 2.43 sets per match
The 14 matches are Budkov Kjaer's full recent hard-court sample, running to 1 October 2026.
Budkov Kjaer won two of every three points behind his first serve in that window, but only just over half on his second delivery, and his 2.3 double faults a match sit above Paul's 1.0. Returners who can extend points against the second serve have the clearest route in. Paul's own first-serve points won on hard, 67.8 per cent across five matches, suggest his delivery has held up at least as well.
- Across 14 hard-court matches, Budkov Kjaer landed 65.2 per cent of first serves and won 66.7 per cent of those points
- He won 50.8 per cent of second-serve points (190 of 374) and averaged 2.3 double faults per match
- He also averaged 3.9 aces per match across the 14 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer is far higher ranked and has a larger recent hard-court sample against stronger opponents, while Paul's wins have come mainly at a lower level.
- Ranking: Kjaer 152, Paul 869
- Kjaer hard-court record 7-7 in 14 tracked matches; Paul 3-2 in 5
- Both players 8-7 overall in the last 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players have averaged more than ten games on hard recently.
- Paul set1 average 10.0 total games
- Kjaer set1 average 10.4 total games
- Both set1 averages sit above the line of 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the looser phase for both, with Paul's averaging nearly twelve games.
- Paul set2 average 11.8 total games
- Kjaer set2 average 9.3 total games
- Both have lost more second sets than won on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent hard-court matches averaging around or above 24 games, pointing to a fairly long contest.
- Paul hard-court average 26.2 total games
- Kjaer hard-court average 24.1 total games
- Paul's recent hard matches averaged 110.9 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer has a positive first-set record on hard and is the stronger player over the season.
- Kjaer set1 record 8-6 on hard
- Paul set1 record 4-1 on hard
- Kjaer ranked 152, Paul 869
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome in both players' recent hard-court samples.
- Paul's scorelines on hard: 2-0 twice, 0-2 once
- Kjaer's scorelines on hard: 2-0 four times, 0-2 four times
- Both average about 2.4 sets per hard match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer is the stronger player, though neither has a strong second-set record on this surface.
- Kjaer set2 record 6-8 on hard
- Paul set2 record 2-3 on hard
- Kjaer ranked 152, Paul 869
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve a reasonable number of aces on hard, so the combined count should clear five.
- Paul averages 3.2 aces per hard match
- Kjaer averages 3.9 aces per hard match
- Combined expectation about 7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Combined tiebreak rate about 37% of hard matches
- Paul had a tiebreak in 2 of 5 hard matches
- Kjaer had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault expectation sits below the line, helped by Paul's very low rate.
- Paul averages 1.0 double faults per hard match
- Kjaer averages 2.3 double faults per hard match
- Combined expectation about 3.3 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Jakub Paul

8W 7L

7-5 7-5#768Loann Massard

6-3 6-7(2) 7-5#491Niels Mcdonald

6-0 6-1#535Rudolf Molleker

6-3 3-6 6-2#572Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 7-5#319Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-2#804Michele Mecarelli

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4#152Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-2 6-4#284Stefano Napolitano

6-1 6-4#148Dusan Lajovic

7-5 6-4#133Alexandre Muller

5-7 7-6(2) 6-2#667John Sperle

6-2 6-2#348Laurent Lokoli

1-6 6-4 6-4#348Laurent Lokoli

6-3 7-5#202Keegan Smith

7-6(4) 7-5#621Daniel Jade

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

8W 7L

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-2#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

3-6 6-3 7-5#241Billy Harris

4-6 6-4 6-4#420Jie Cui

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#356Moez Echargui

6-1 7-6(7)#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 6-4#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-1#149Mark Lajal

7-5 6-4#117Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#238Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-1#95Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-1#93Bu Yunchaokete

7-5 6-4#76Kyrian Jacquet

6-2 3-6 6-4#89Hugo Gaston

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JPJakub PaulPaul

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolai Budkov KjaerKjaerNK

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.0%+3.2pp65.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1565.0%+1.7pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.0%+1.2pp50.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.0+1.93.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.71.6 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.1%+1.4pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.5%+2.3pp39.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1559.0%+1.6pp60.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.5%—49.4%

Serve · 2–3

62.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp65.2%

65.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp66.7%

52.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp50.8%

2.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.93.9

0.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.6 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

39.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

41.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp39.2%

59.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp60.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—49.4%