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Predictions graded

Aurora Zantedeschi #284Italy0Fiona Ferro #108France2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 13:19 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions9–282%

Edges7–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Ferro · 176 places

Aurora Zantedeschi

Italy

Born 2 November 2000 and plays right-handed.

Current ranking: #284
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Fiona Ferro

France

French right-hander with a career-high ranking of No. 39 in March 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as her preferred surfaces; WTA lists Emmanuel Planque as coach.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #39 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferro is the higher-ranked clay player, but she has not competed since her reported Jingshan retirement on 30 September and the head-to-head with Zantedeschi is level at 1-1.

Zantedeschi has won 8 of 15 clay matches, so Ferro is the likelier winner, most probably in straight sets. The quoted prices ask too much: 1.22 to win, 1.30 for either opening set, 1.44 giving 3.5 games, 1.33 for straight sets and 1.60 for a 2-0 win are not worth taking.

Context

Ferro's late-September retirement is the clearest current signal about her physical state going into a clay first round, where long baseline exchanges load the back and hip area. She has had almost two weeks without a match, which may have allowed the problem to settle. If she is fully fit, the episode is background; if not, her ability to sustain rallies is the open question, and Zantedeschi arrives with recent match rhythm.
- Ferro received treatment on her lower back and hip during a Jingshan 125 match, which she went on to win 6-4, 2-6, 6-1.
- She retired from her following match on 30 September 2026 with the score at 6-1, 2-0.
- She has not played a competitive match since that retirement.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Two 125 titles and the climb from roughly No. 369 to the top 110 make clay the surface where Ferro's recent results are strongest, and she is the higher-ranked player here. Winning multiple matches in a week, as she did in Montreux, matters in a compact 125 draw. The limitation is that she has not competed since retiring in Jingshan, so those results have not been extended into October.
- Ferro won the Oeiras 125 and the Montreux 125 in 2026, defeating Noma Noha Akugue 6-1, 6-2 in the Montreux final .
- She rose from approximately No. 369 in January 2026 to around No. 107 by mid-September.
- She is the French No. 2.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Ferro's clay run is the strongest part of her case and the reason she starts as the clear favourite in Lisbon.
Ten of Ferro's 11 completed clay matches began with her taking the first set, and none of them reached 6-6, so this recent run is about closing sets cleanly rather than surviving tiebreaks. The sample ends on 13 September and covers 11 matches, a stretch rather than a settled habit, and three of her clay wins still needed a deciding set.
- Ferro's 11 completed clay matches (2 August to 13 September 2026) produced a 10-1 first-set record and no tiebreaks.
- She won seven of the 11 in straight sets, with three 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss.
- The clay aggregate excludes one retired match.
Direct entry to the Australian Open main draw is the season goal attached to Ferro's ranking, and the October cutoff means results at 125 level now carry extra weight. A first-round exit in Lisbon would leave her dependent on later events and other results. This sets out the stakes around the match rather than a playing edge on the day, so it does not adjust the sporting assessment.
- In mid-October 2026, Ferro was among the players immediately outside the Australian Open main-draw entry line, with the cutoff roughly eight weeks away.
- She moved to a virtual top-100 ranking in late September 2026 after reaching the Jingshan 125 round of 16.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro

1.22fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

−6.0ppshort

She is the higher-ranked, in-form player and has dominated clay, winning two 125-level titles this year.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro

1.30fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 76.9%

−7.9ppshort

She has started strongly on clay, taking the first set nearly every time.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

She has been strong in second sets and often pulls away as matches progress.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro -3.5

1.44fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69.4%

−3.4ppshort

Her recent clay wins have all come by at least four games, so a routine win clears this mark.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.33fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 75.2%

−9.2ppshort

Most recent clay matches for both ended in straight sets.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 20.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

−5.6ppshort

Ferro tends to win quickly on clay, which keeps the game count down.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Fiona Ferro 2-0

1.60fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 62.5%

−10.5ppshort

Ferro most often wins in straight sets, and Zantedeschi has been swept a third of the time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
She is the higher-ranked, in-form player and has dominated clay, winning two 125-level titles this year.
- No.108 vs No.284
- Clay: 10-1 in 11 matches; overall 11-3
- Clay scorelines: 2-0 in 7 of 11
- Won their Rome 125 meeting 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance76%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Her recent clay wins have all come by at least four games, so a routine win clears this mark.
- Listed clay wins by margins of +9, +7, +8 and +4 games
- All four of those wins cleared this line
- Wins 10 of her last 11 completed clay matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFiona Ferro -3.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average under nine games, favouring the shorter outcome.
- Ferro set 2 average total 8.6 games
- Zantedeschi set 2 average total 8.7 games
- Most second sets decided by a single break
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Ferro tends to win quickly on clay, which keeps the game count down.
- Ferro's four listed clay matches averaged 18 games
- Ferro won 2-0 in 7 of 11 clay matches
- Zantedeschi has two tiebreaks in 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both average about nine games, so a short 6-3 or 6-4 opener is the common outcome.
- Ferro set 1 average total 9.0 games
- Zantedeschi set 1 average total 8.9 games
- Only one tiebreak for each in the sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro has beaten higher-ranked clay opponents by wide margins, so a clear win is plausible.
- Clay win margins +9, +7, +8, +4
- Three of her four listed clay wins cleared this line
- Those wins came against opponents ranked 130-197, above Zantedeschi's 284
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFiona Ferro -5.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
She has started strongly on clay, taking the first set nearly every time.
- Set 1 record on clay: 10-1
- Set 1 games: 5.7 won / 3.3 lost
- Won the opening set in 10 of 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
She has been strong in second sets and often pulls away as matches progress.
- Set 2 record on clay: 8-3
- Set 2 games: 5.2 won / 3.5 lost
- Recent clay wins included 6-0 and 6-1 sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Most recent clay matches for both ended in straight sets.
- Ferro clay: 2-0 in 7 of 11
- Zantedeschi total sets average 2.33
- Ferro total sets average 2.36
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Ferro most often wins in straight sets, and Zantedeschi has been swept a third of the time.
- Ferro clay: 2-0 in 7 of 11, 2-1 in 3
- No tiebreaks in her 11 clay matches
- Zantedeschi lost 0-2 in 5 of 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonFiona Ferro 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have finished the large majority of clay sets without reaching 6-6.
- Ferro: 0 tiebreaks in 11 clay matches
- Zantedeschi: 2 tiebreaks in 15 clay matches
- Most sets for both finished without reaching 6-6
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance79%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.22 price requires 82.0%, above our 76.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Fiona Ferro: 5/6 recent winner projections matched

5 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Fiona Ferro matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Fiona Ferro6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·65%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

Fiona Ferro to win

65%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

16 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

Aurora Zantedeschi

8W 7L

6-3 6-1#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

7-6(4) 6-3#425Katerina Tsygourova

6-3 3-6 6-2#514Ariana Geerlings

6-2 6-1#780Maria Oliver Sanchez

4-6 6-2 6-3#499Marta Lombardini

6-2 6-3#185Lucie Havlickova

6-2 6-3#168Alevtina Ibragimova

4-6 6-3 6-1#346Lina Gjorcheska

6-2 6-2#281Sofya Lansere

6-2 2-6 6-1#108Fiona Ferro

6-3 7-6(5)#334Amandine Monnot

6-3 6-4#549Ida Wobker

3-6 6-0 6-4#137Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-2 6-3#450Sapfo Sakellaridi

6-1 6-4#226Angela Fita Boluda

Fiona Ferro

11W 4L

6-1 2-0 ret.#421Sijia Wei

6-4 2-6 6-1#388Yidi Yang

6-3 6-3#37Talia Gibson

6-1 6-2#130Noma Akugue Noha

6-1 2-6 6-0#150Dalma Galfi

6-4 6-0#185Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#197Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-4#186Mona Barthel

2-6 6-3 7-5#218Clara Burel

6-4 6-2#293Francesca Pace

6-4 6-3#384Diletta Cherubini

6-2 2-6 6-1#284Aurora Zantedeschi

6-2 6-1#618Astrid Cirotte

6-1 6-4#630Rebecca Marino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Barbora Palicova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AZAurora ZantedeschiZantedeschi

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Fiona FerroFerroFF

Aurora Zantedeschi carries the stronger recent form — Fiona Ferro's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In72.2%+1.9pp70.3%

1st Serve Won57.2%+0.8pp58.0%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+2.1pp46.5%

Aces / Match1.1+0.30.8

Double Faults / Match1.10.6 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.7%+4.4pp50.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.4%+10.7pp52.1%

Break Pts Saved59.1%+4.3pp54.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+2.3pp52.4%

Serve · 4–1

72.2%1st Serve In+1.9pp70.3%

57.2%1st Serve Won+0.8pp58.0%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp46.5%

1.1Aces / Match+0.30.8

1.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

45.7%Return Pts Won+4.4pp50.1%

Pressure · 1–1

41.4%Break Pts Converted+10.7pp52.1%

59.1%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp54.8%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+2.3pp52.4%