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Predictions graded

Raluca Georgiana Serban #383Cyprus2Sara Cakarevic #551France0

Sets 7-5 · 6-1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 12:04 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaluca Georgiana Serban · 168 places

Raluca Georgiana Serban

Cyprus

Serban, 29, represents Cyprus and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 152 in July 2023.

Current ranking: #383
Peak ranking: #152 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Sara Cakarevic

France

Sara Cakarevic of France is ranked No. 543 and plays right-handed. Every match in her tracked recent sample was played on clay.

Current ranking: #551
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 01:37 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the WTA 125 main draw is on the line on clay, with Serban the higher-ranked player at No. 383 but Cakarevic the one with the better recent clay results (8-7 in 15 tracked matches against Serban's 3-10 in 13).

Cakarevic's 2.2 price to win the match is the one reviewed price that offers anything; Serban at 1.65 does not. A straight-sets Cakarevic win is her likeliest single result, though only a lean.

Context

This covers Serban's record in the first set across her 13 tracked clay matches from 15 June to 11 October 2026.
Serban's opening sets are the weakest part of her clay sample: three set-one wins in 13 matches, with 4.15 games won against 5.77 lost. Ten times in that window she trailed after the first set, which puts the early exchanges of this qualifying final under pressure. Her second-set record is only marginally better at 5-8 with five tiebreaks, so she has recovered from slow starts, but starting well has not been her pattern.
- 13 tracked clay matches from 15 June to 11 October 2026
- Set one: 3 wins, 10 losses, 4.15 games won on average against 5.77 lost
- Set two: 5 wins, 8 losses with five tiebreaks
- Two retired matches were excluded from the sample
This concerns the shape of Cakarevic's 15 tracked clay matches, not just her win-loss record.
Cakarevic's clay matches have usually been settled inside two sets: 11 of 15, including seven 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses. Her second sets are the stronger half, averaging 4.87 games won against 3.60 lost, with a single tiebreak in the sample. That makes a straight-sets outcome a realistic path in this qualifying final, though the four straight-set defeats show the same shape can run against her.
- 15 tracked clay matches from 27 July to 11 October 2026
- Scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win and three 1-2 losses
- Set two: 10 wins, 5 losses, 4.87 games won on average against 3.60 lost
- Only two of the 15 matches featured a tiebreak
The match is the final round of qualifying at a clay WTA 125 in Lisbon, so the prize is a main-draw place rather than a ranking point. Serban and Cakarevic both needed three sets to win their opening qualifying matches, leaving no rest-day gap before this round. The ranking lists Serban at No. 383 and Cakarevic at No. 551, which frames Serban as the higher-rated player. The one-day turnaround applies equally to both, so the occasion and stakes, not a conditioning edge, are what this fixture adds to the forecast.
- Both players won their opening qualifying matches in Lisbon, each in three sets.
- The fixture is listed as a qualifying final on clay in Lisbon on 12 October.
- Serban is ranked No. 383 and Cakarevic No. 551.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:36 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co.uk · 11 Oct 2026
The single prior meeting between the two was played in July 2022, when Serban won in straight sets at an ITF W60 event, four years before this qualifying final. It establishes that Serban has already handled Cakarevic's game once, which is the only direct comparison on record. The gap in time and the lower-tier setting make it weak evidence about current clay form at WTA 125 level. With no other recorded meetings, it stays useful as context rather than as a current indicator.
- Serban leads the head-to-head 1-0.
- The 2022 meeting was decided in straight sets at an ITF W60 tournament.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:36 · Europe/BucharestMatchStatmatchstat.com · 11 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Cakarevic has the better current clay results and higher point and game win rates, despite the ranking gap.
- Cakarevic is 8-7 across 15 tracked clay matches and has won 51.4% of total points on the surface.
- Serban is 3-10 across 13 tracked clay matches, with her only recent win coming against a player ranked 537.
- Cakarevic's clay games-won rate is 53.1% (155 of 292), while Serban has won just three of her last six completed matches at any level.
- Cakarevic's serve numbers on clay: 61.5% first serves in and 59.1% first-serve points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSara CakarevicEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cakarevic's short opening sets and the absence of first-set tiebreaks point to a 9.5-or-under tally.
- Cakarevic's opening sets on clay average 8.27 total games.
- Serban's opening sets on clay average 9.92 total games.
- Neither player recorded a first-set tiebreak in their tracked clay samples.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serban's matches run long and she often loses tight sets, which keeps the total near the line.
- Serban's tracked clay matches average 24.3 total games.
- Cakarevic's tracked clay matches average 19.5 total games.
- Serban has played six three-set matches among 13 tracked clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cakarevic's controlled second sets are usually decided in nine games or fewer.
- Cakarevic's second sets average 8.47 total games with only one tiebreak.
- Serban's second sets average 10.69 total games with five tiebreaks.
- Cakarevic has won 10 of 15 tracked second sets, several by clear margins.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cakarevic's second-set record is her strongest part of the match, while Serban's is only slightly better than her first sets.
- Cakarevic has won the second set in 10 of 15 tracked clay matches.
- Serban has won the second set in five of 13 tracked clay matches.
- Cakarevic's second sets on clay average 4.87 games won against 3.60 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSara CakarevicEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cakarevic has the stronger record in opening sets and Serban is regularly behind early.
- Cakarevic has won the opening set in eight of 15 tracked clay matches.
- Serban has won the opening set in only three of 13 tracked clay matches.
- Serban's opening sets on clay average 4.15 games won against 5.77 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSara CakarevicEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serban's habit of splitting sets keeps a three-set match plausible.
- Serban has gone to a deciding set in six of 13 tracked clay matches.
- Serban's average matches length is 2.46 sets; Cakarevic's is 2.27 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' clay sets are settled by a break rather than a tiebreak.
- Cakarevic has played only two tiebreak matches in 15 tracked clay matches.
- Serban has played five tiebreak matches in 13 tracked clay matches.
- Cakarevic's opening sets on clay averaged 8.27 games with no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Raluca Georgiana Serban

4W 11L

6-2 4-6 6-4#537Sarah Van Emst

7-5 6-7(7) 6-0#235Jennifer Ruggeri

7-5 2-0 ret.#669Lara Schmidt

6-4 4-6 6-3#472Gaia Maduzzi

6-7(6) 7-6(5) 6-2#329Lea Boskovic

6-4 6-3#105Francesca Jones

6-2 7-6(2)#270Anastasia Zolotareva

6-4 6-1#243Noemi Basiletti

6-1 1-0 ret.#455Amarissa Kiara Toth

5-7 6-4 6-0#765Anastasia Bertacchi

6-2 6-4#603Daria Kuczer

6-3 6-3#329Lea Boskovic

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#331Gina Feistel

7-5 6-3#309Victoria Bosio

6-1 7-6(5)#52Mayar Sherif

Sara Cakarevic

8W 7L

4-6 6-3 6-4#425Katerina Tsygourova

3-6 6-4 6-3#298Lisa Zaar

6-3 6-0#584Carolina Bohrer Martins

6-3 6-2#414Tena Lukas

6-4 7-6(5)#660Noemi Maines

6-1 0-6 6-3#282Georgia Pedone

6-4 6-3#410Elena Milovanovic

6-0 6-3#575Antonia Stoyanov

6-1 6-1#424Maria Golovina

6-2 6-1#899Brandy Walker

6-0 6-1—Havah Kaur Kaler

6-0 6-4#345Rada Zolotareva

6-3 5-7 7-6(2)#437Unknown Player

6-4 6-0#204Nadia Podoroska

6-2 6-2#410Elena Milovanovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RSRaluca Georgiana SerbanSerban

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Sara CakarevicCakarevicSC

Sara Cakarevic carries the stronger recent form — Raluca Georgiana Serban's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.0%—61.5%

1st Serve Won59.9%+0.8pp59.1%

2nd Serve Won37.2%+10.6pp47.8%

Aces / Match1.1+0.41.5

Double Faults / Match7.35.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.8%+3.5pp48.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.9%+4.2pp51.1%

Break Pts Saved47.0%+7.1pp54.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.8%+3.6pp51.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.0%1st Serve In—61.5%

59.9%1st Serve Won+0.8pp59.1%

37.2%2nd Serve Won+10.6pp47.8%

1.1Aces / Match+0.41.5

7.3Double Faults / Match5.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

44.8%Return Pts Won+3.5pp48.3%

Pressure · 0–2

46.9%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp51.1%

47.0%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp54.1%

Points · 0–1

47.8%Total Pts Won+3.6pp51.4%