PortugalMaia - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #368Switzerland0Michael Vrbensky #754Czechia2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Mon 12 Oct 2026, 12:50 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Schoen · 386 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #368
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Michael Vrbensky

Czechia

Vrbensky reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 277 on 15 July 2024. Official ITF records show his year-end singles ranking moved from No. 299 in 2023 to No. 636 in 2025; no reliable source in this search attributed that change to an active injury.

Current ranking: #754
Peak ranking: #277 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 01:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Schoen has won 14 of his last 15 and four of five on clay, while Vrbensky is 2-12 on the surface since March, so the likely result is a Schoen win, probably in straight sets.

Yet the reviewed prices — 1.18 for Schoen to win, 1.29 for the first set, 1.25 for the second, 1.55 for a 2-0 — all ask more than the form justifies. No quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Winning the same M25 event in consecutive weeks required Schoen to hold form across a compressed schedule and built a 10-match winning sequence on hard courts, the surface he prefers. That run is at ITF M25 level, below the Challenger 100 field he now faces, and his matches since at Braga and Maia have all been on clay, so it is evidence of current form rather than proof of Challenger-level readiness.
- Schoen won M25 Sintra for his fourth ITF singles title
- Schoen won M25 Sintra again for his fifth ITF singles title
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:24 · Europe/Bucharest
The win over a top-250 opponent confirmed Schoen could convert his ITF form at Challenger level, and it came after he had also won two Braga qualifying matches on clay. The 6-1 6-0 loss to Alcalá a day later shows the remaining gap to the top of a Challenger draw, framing his Maia campaign as a step-by-step build rather than a continuation of peak form. Both results came on clay, not the hard court he prefers.
- Schoen beat Nedic 6-1 7-6(1) for his first Challenger main-draw win
- Nedic's Braga tournament ended in the round of 32
- Alcalá Gurri beat Schoen 6-1 6-0
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Schoen, the higher-ranked player, has been closing clay matches quickly in the week before Maia.
Schoen's five-match clay sample from 4 to 11 October produced four 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss, averaging 15.8 games, and only one of the five contained a tiebreak. Vrbensky has lost 0-2 in seven of his 14 clay matches, which fits the same shape. A single dropped set stays possible, since Vrbensky has taken a set in five of those matches.
- Five clay matches from 4 to 11 October 2026: four 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss
- Average 15.8 total games and 2.0 sets per match in that sample
- Only one of the five matches included a tiebreak
Vrbensky, No. 754, arrives at Maia without a straight-set win anywhere in this 14-match clay sample.
Vrbensky lost 0-2 in seven of 14 clay matches between 22 March and 14 September 2026 and went the distance in another seven, so his matches either end quickly or stretch out; half of them featured a tiebreak. His two wins both came in three sets. Schoen has won four of five clay matches in October without dropping a set.
- 14 clay matches from 22 March to 14 September 2026 with a 2-12 record
- Seven 0-2 defeats, five 1-2 defeats and two 2-1 wins
- Seven of the 14 matches included a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Patrick Schoen

1.18fair 1.20

BetBugs 83% · Market 84.7%

−1.7ppshort

Schoen has dominated at a much higher level on clay recently, while Vrbensky has lost 12 of 14 clay matches and needed an opponent retirement to advance here.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Patrick Schoen

1.29fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 77.5%

−1.5ppshort

Schoen has started clay matches strongly while Vrbensky has usually lost the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Patrick Schoen

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Schoen has been the stronger player in second sets and Vrbensky has rarely recovered within a match.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Lean

Patrick Schoen 2-0

1.55fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 64.5%

−0.5ppshort

Schoen has been winning clay matches without dropping a set, and Vrbensky usually loses in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Schoen has dominated at a much higher level on clay recently, while Vrbensky has lost 12 of 14 clay matches and needed an opponent retirement to advance here.
- Schoen 14-1 in his last 15 completed matches; 4-1 in his five-match clay sample
- Vrbensky 2-12 in 14 clay matches, losing in straight sets in seven of them
- Schoen ATP No. 368 vs Vrbensky No. 754
- Schoen has won 8 of 10 clay sets in the current sample
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance83%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen has been breaking early and closing first sets quickly, which points to a short opening set.
- Schoen's five clay set1 totals were 8, 7, 7, 7 and 7 games
- Schoen won set1 6-1 in three of those matches
- Vrbensky lost set1 2-6 in his most recent completed match
- Schoen's set1 games lost average is 2.2 on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen has been closing out second sets quickly, and he wins most of them.
- Schoen's five clay set2 totals were 7, 6, 13, 8 and 9 games
- Schoen won set2 four times in five clay matches
- Vrbensky lost set2 2-6 in his most recent completed match
- Schoen's clay matches averaged 73.7 minutes
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's recent clay wins have been short, one-sided affairs, and his straight-set margin is the most likely shape of this match.
- Schoen's five clay matches averaged 15.8 total games
- Schoen's clay wins came by scorelines such as 6-2 6-1 and 6-1 6-2
- Vrbensky's 14 clay matches averaged 25.2 total games
- Schoen's clay matches averaged 73.7 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Schoen has started clay matches strongly while Vrbensky has usually lost the opening set.
- Schoen won set1 in four of five clay matches
- Vrbensky lost set1 in 10 of 14 clay matches
- Schoen's set1 games won average 5.0 vs 2.2 lost on clay
- Vrbensky's set1 games won average 4.7 vs 5.6 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Schoen has been the stronger player in second sets and Vrbensky has rarely recovered within a match.
- Schoen won set2 in four of five clay matches
- Vrbensky lost set2 in 11 of 14 clay matches
- Schoen won 8 of 10 clay sets overall
- Vrbensky's set2 games won average 3.9 vs 5.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen has been winning in straight sets and Vrbensky has usually lost without taking a set.
- Schoen's clay scorelines: four 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss
- Schoen has won 8 of 10 clay sets
- Vrbensky lost in straight sets in seven of 14 clay matches
- Vrbensky's two wins both went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Schoen has been winning clay matches without dropping a set, and Vrbensky usually loses in straight sets.
- Four of Schoen's five clay matches ended 2-0 in his favour
- Schoen's clay wins came by 6-2 6-1, 6-1 6-2, 6-1 6-3 and 6-1 7-6
- Vrbensky lost 0-2 in seven of 14 clay matches
- Schoen has won 8 of 10 clay sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostPatrick Schoen 2-0Estimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen tends to break early and close sets, which limits the chance of a tiebreak developing.
- Schoen has had one tiebreak in his last five clay matches
- Schoen's clay set1 games won average is 5.0 vs 2.2 lost
- Vrbensky lost set1 2-6 in his most recent completed match
- Schoen's clay matches averaged 73.7 minutes
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Patrick Schoen

14W 1L

6-2 6-1—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 6-0#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-1 7-6(1)#244Andrej Nedic

6-1 6-2#471Filip Misolic

6-1 6-3#681Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#470Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#649Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#396Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#594Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#728Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

7-6(3) 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-1 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

Michael Vrbensky

3W 12L

4-3 ret.#423Olle Wallin

7-5 6-2#613Kai Wehnelt

2-6 6-2 6-4#456Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 3-6 6-2#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 5-7 6-3#640Maxime Janvier

7-6(2) 6-7(2) 6-4#881Patrik Niklas-Salminen

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#640Maxime Janvier

7-6(4) 6-1#583Milos Karol

6-0 6-1#239Marvin Moeller

7-6(4) 6-3#325Dali Blanch

6-3 4-6 7-6(5)#396Robin Bertrand

7-5 7-6(2)#841Daniel Cukierman

6-3 6-4#378Franco Agamenone

5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#653Yaroslav Demin

6-1 6-2#469Denis Yevseyev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Michael VrbenskyVrbenskyMV

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Michael Vrbensky's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.3%—56.3%

1st Serve Won72.4%+7.2pp65.2%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+7.5pp45.9%

Aces / Match3.3+0.63.9

Double Faults / Match1.72.7 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.0%+11.4pp37.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.9%+3.8pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved63.0%+13.0pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won56.0%+8.9pp47.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

56.3%1st Serve In—56.3%

72.4%1st Serve Won+7.2pp65.2%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+7.5pp45.9%

3.3Aces / Match+0.63.9

1.7Double Faults / Match2.7 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

49.0%Return Pts Won+11.4pp37.6%

Pressure · 2–0

44.9%Break Pts Converted+3.8pp41.1%

63.0%Break Pts Saved+13.0pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

56.0%Total Pts Won+8.9pp47.1%