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Predictions graded

Mathilde Lollia #597France2Loes Ebeling Koning #398Netherlands1

Sets 7-5 · 4-6 · 7-6Mon 12 Oct 2026, 10:12 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–736%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLoes Ebeling Koning · 199 places

Mathilde Lollia

France

Ranked No. 597, Lollia has played most of her recent matches on clay and has won six of nine tracked clay matches. She has won ten of her last fifteen tracked matches across clay and hard courts. Reliable detail on her age, career-high ranking and coaching setup is thin.

Current ranking: #597
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Loes Ebeling Koning

Netherlands

Current ranking No. 422. Her strongest recent result is a run to the W50 Pazardzhik final in September 2026. Reliable further profile detail is thin.

Current ranking: #398
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Ebeling Koning is higher ranked, serves better on clay and has taken 12 of 15 clay opening sets, but Lollia has won her own opener in six of nine clay matches and came through a three-set qualifier on 11 October.

Ebeling Koning is the likely winner, most probably in straight sets. At 1.18 to win the match and 1.5 for a 2-0 win, those prices ask too much. The worthwhile quotes are on Lollia: 3.8 for the first set and 4.75 for the match.

Context

Ebeling Koning's strongest recent result is a September 2026 run to the ITF W50 Pazardzhik final, where she lost to Elizara Yaneva, then ranked No. 153, in a deciding-set tiebreak. It shows she arrives at this WTA 125 qualifying event having recently contested and narrowly lost a professional clay-court final against a higher-ranked opponent. The result came two tiers below the current event, so it is a form marker rather than direct evidence about this specific match.
- The Pazardzhik final was decided by a third-set tiebreak, with Yaneva, then ranked No. 153, winning it.
- It is Ebeling Koning's strongest recent result and came on clay.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:50 · Europe/Bucharest
Her clay matches average 2.2 sets, making a two-set finish her most common route, and she wins the opener 5.53 games to 3.33. The counterweight is that Lollia has lost in straight sets only twice in nine clay matches and has already come through a three-set qualifier this week, so a short match is likely but not assured.
- 10 of Ebeling Koning's 15 completed clay matches (31 August to 11 October 2026) ended 2-0 in her favour; two ended 0-2, two 1-2 and one 2-1.
- Over the same 15-match clay sample her matches average 2.2 sets, with second sets averaging 5.27 games to 3.73.
The 1-6 1-6 loss to Dencheva is the sharpest low point in her recent clay form, and it came four days before this qualifying match. Her wider clay record of 11 wins in 15 matches shows it was an outlier rather than her standard level, but it also shows how far a scoreline can fall against a higher-ranked opponent.
- Rositsa Dencheva, then ranked No. 205, beat Ebeling Koning 6-1 6-1 in a clay match on 8 October 2026.
- Ebeling Koning's wider clay record in the 31 August to 11 October 2026 window is 11 wins and four losses in 15 matches.
Lollia's starts are the best part of her clay sample, with six opening sets won from nine matches and no tiebreaks across 21 clay sets. Ebeling Koning, though, has taken 12 of 15 clay opening sets and lost the first set only three times, so this edge sits on the narrower side of the matchup.
- In nine completed clay matches (13 July to 11 October 2026) Lollia won the opening set six times and lost it three times, averaging 4.67 games won to 3.89 lost.
- Her nine clay matches contained no tiebreaks in 21 sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Both players have mostly finished clay matches in straight sets, with Ebeling Koning particularly quick.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ebeling Koning is higher ranked, serves better and holds the stronger clay record, with both recent clay defeats coming against higher-ranked opponents.
- No. 398 against No. 597; 11-4 in 15 clay matches
- Won 59.3% of clay games (178-122) and 72.7% of clay sets
- 67.7% of first-serve points won on clay with 3.3 aces and 1.8 double faults per match
- Reached a W50 clay final in September, losing a deciding-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLoes Ebeling KoningEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even in her defeats Lollia has generally stayed within a handful of games, and this line needs a six-game loss.
- Lollia's clay games: 101-83, +2.0 per match over nine matches
- Ebeling Koning's average clay margin is +3.7 games
- Lollia has won at least ten games in most of her completed clay matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMathilde Lollia +5.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets on clay have generally been settled by a break or two for both players.
- Lollia's clay opening sets average 8.6 games (4.67-3.89)
- Ebeling Koning's clay opening sets average 8.9 games (5.53-3.33)
- No tiebreaks in Lollia's 21 clay sets; one in Ebeling Koning's 15 opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lollia has stayed within three games in most of her clay matches, including her recent three-set win.
- Lollia's clay games: 101-83, a margin of +2.0 per match
- Ebeling Koning's clay games: 178-122, +3.7 per match
- Lollia has lost 0-2 only twice in nine clay matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMathilde Lollia +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both have typically finished around 6-3 or 6-4 rather than going long.
- Lollia's clay second sets average 9.0 games (4.67-4.33)
- Ebeling Koning's clay second sets average 9.0 games (5.27-3.73)
- Tiebreaks are rare in both players' clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches sit right around 20 games and Lollia's recent matches have run long, so the total can pass the line.
- Lollia's clay matches average 20.4 games; Ebeling Koning's 20.0
- Lollia went three sets in 3 of 9 clay matches; Ebeling Koning in 3 of 15
- Lollia's previous round finished 3-6 6-4 6-2
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both players have mostly finished clay matches in straight sets, with Ebeling Koning particularly quick.
- Ebeling Koning averages 2.2 sets per clay match, Lollia 2.33
- Ebeling Koning's 10 of 15 clay matches ended 2-0
- Lollia has lost 0-2 twice in nine clay matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ebeling Koning has been the stronger starter on clay, dropping the opening set only three times in 15 matches.
- Won the first set in 12 of 15 clay matches
- Opening sets average 5.53 games won to 3.33 lost
- Clay opening sets average 8.9 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLoes Ebeling KoningEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ebeling Koning has a clear edge in second sets on clay, though a smaller one than in opening sets.
- Won the second set in 11 of 15 clay matches
- Second-set games average 5.27 to 3.73
- Second-set win rate is lower than her first-set rate of 12 of 15
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLoes Ebeling KoningEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ebeling Koning wins most clay matches without dropping a set and her serve limits loose service games.
- 10 of her 15 clay matches ended 2-0 in her favour
- Averages 2.2 sets per clay match
- Beat Pia Lovric 7-5 7-5 in the previous round
BetBugs · Set BettinglostLoes Ebeling Koning 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Serving in these two players' recent matches has generally produced breaks rather than tiebreaks.
- Only 2 of Ebeling Koning's 15 clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Lollia's nine clay matches contained none
- Both players' clay sets average under 9.5 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Only Ebeling Koning serves at a rate that threatens this line, and her matches are usually short.
- Lollia has 9 aces in 9 clay matches (1.0 per match)
- Ebeling Koning has 49 aces in 15 clay matches (3.3 per match)
- Both players' clay matches average around two sets
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lollia's double-fault count alone puts the combined total close to the line before Ebeling Koning serves.
- Lollia averages 4.1 double faults per clay match (37 in 9)
- Ebeling Koning averages 1.8 per clay match (27 in 15)
- Combined per-match average is about 5.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance56%

Mathilde Lollia

10W 5L

3-6 6-4 6-2#496Maria Martinez Vaquero

7-5 6-4#876Juliana Giaccio

6-1 6-4#253Carolyn Ansari

6-0 6-3#290Martha Matoula

6-1 6-2#738Alyssa Reguer

6-4 7-6(5)#894Marine Szostak

6-3 6-2—Manoly Rengeard

4-6 6-4 7-5#222Maria Lourdes Carle

6-4 6-4#782Liv Boulard

6-3 6-3#836Arina Gabriela Vasilescu

6-4 6-3—Polina Skliar

6-0 6-4#301Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-4 1-6 6-0#325Anouck Vrancken Peeters

6-1 6-1#829Laetitia Pulchartova

6-0 6-3—Christina Bednarczyk

Loes Ebeling Koning

11W 4L

7-5 7-5#477Pia Lovric

6-1 6-1#205Rositsa Dencheva

6-3 6-1—Teodora Naidenova

2-6 6-4 6-4#239Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-1 6-1#390Alessandra Mazzola

6-2 6-0#461Jule Niemeier

6-1 6-2#344Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 6-7(1) 7-6(5)#149Elizara Yaneva

6-3 6-3#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-3 6-2#357Lidia Encheva

6-2 3-6 6-3#575Antonia Stoyanov

6-2 6-4#450Sapfo Sakellaridi

7-6(6) 6-2#228Alice Tubello

6-3 6-3#407Alena Kovackova

6-4 7-5#628Demi Tran

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMathilde LolliaLollia

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Loes Ebeling KoningKoningLK

Loes Ebeling Koning carries the stronger recent form — Mathilde Lollia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In70.3%+9.4pp60.9%

1st Serve Won60.4%+7.3pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won43.5%+4.8pp48.3%

Aces / Match1.9+1.43.3

Double Faults / Match4.12.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.3%+1.4pp47.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted55.0%—55.7%

Break Pts Saved53.8%+7.9pp45.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.3%+1.5pp53.8%

Serve · 1–4

70.3%1st Serve In+9.4pp60.9%

60.4%1st Serve Won+7.3pp67.7%

43.5%2nd Serve Won+4.8pp48.3%

1.9Aces / Match+1.43.3

4.1Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

49.3%Return Pts Won+1.4pp47.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

55.0%Break Pts Converted—55.7%

53.8%Break Pts Saved+7.9pp45.9%

Points · 0–1

52.3%Total Pts Won+1.5pp53.8%

Mathilde Lollia

Loes Ebeling Koning

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mathilde Lollia

Mathilde Lollia

Under 2.5

Loes Ebeling Koning 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Mathilde Lollia

Loes Ebeling Koning

Stat Battle