ChinaJinan - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Marat Sharipov (RUS) #234Russia2Jake Delaney #357Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Mon 12 Oct 2026, 06:31 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarat Sharipov · 123 places

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #234
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Jake Delaney

Australia

Delaney, 29, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached his career-best singles ranking of No. 354 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #354 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Sharipov has won 12 of 14 hard-court matches in this window and opened Jinan qualifying 6-1 6-0, while Delaney is 6-8 and reached this round only when Ajeet Rai retired.

Sharipov is the likely winner. The 1.18 on him is one to leave, and the only quoted price that offers anything is Delaney at 4.25.

Context

Sharipov retired from his Wuning 3 round-of-16 match against Omar Jasika, trailing 6-3 3-0, five days before this Jinan qualifying meeting. A completed retirement is the clearest current signal about his physical state and makes durability across a second qualifying match worth watching. He returned to win his Jinan opener 6-1 6-0 against Zhe Jiang on 11 October, which indicates the problem did not stop him competing, so the episode is a risk marker rather than proof he is compromised.
- Sharipov retired against Omar Jasika at 6-3 3-0 in the Wuning 3 round of 16
- Jasika advanced to the Wuning 3 quarter-finals after the retirement
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Sharipov won his first Challenger title in Guangzhou in September 2026, beating Pavel Kotov 6-0 6-3 in the final, and moved inside the Top 250 for the first time. That title is the strongest recent evidence of his hard-court level and separates him from a player who has never won at this tier. It frames his form rather than settling this fixture, because he has since lost a completed match and retired from another.
- First Challenger title won at Guangzhou in September 2026 over Pavel Kotov
- First time inside the Top 250 after the title
- Named mover of the week following the title
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Sharipov beat Zhe Jiang 6-1 6-0 in the first qualifying round, dropping one game before the second qualifying round the following day. The result shows he arrived in Jinan sharp and needed little time on court after his recent retirement. It is a single qualifying result and does not by itself establish how he will match up with Delaney.
- Beat Zhe Jiang 6-1 6-0 in Jinan qualifying
- The win came a day before the scheduled second qualifying round against Jake Delaney
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/BucharestFanzizwww.fanziz.com · 11 Oct 2026
Sharipov's 12-2 run across 14 hard-court matches has usually been settled in two sets, and only twice has he needed a third. Delaney, who has lost 8 of his 14 tracked matches in straight sets, fits that pattern. The counterweight is Sharipov's opening set: he has dropped it in four of those 14 matches, so a two-set result is not guaranteed.
- 10 of Sharipov's 14 tracked hard-court matches (11 Sep–11 Oct) finished 2-0
- Only two of those 14 matches went to a deciding set
- Sharipov lost the opening set in four of the 14

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marat Sharipov

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Sharipov's second-set record in this window is near-flawless and he tends to pull away as matches progress.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov has won nearly every hard-court match in this window, including comfortable qualifying wins in Jinan, while Delaney has lost more than he has won against similar-level opponents.
- Sharipov 12-2 on hard in this window; Delaney 6-8
- Sharipov won 10 of 14 tracked matches in straight sets, Delaney lost 8 of 14 in straight sets
- Sharipov beat Zhe Jiang 6-1 6-0 in Jinan qualifying on 11 Oct
- Sharipov ranked 234 vs Delaney 357; Sharipov beat No. 126 Svrcina in this window
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance76%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players sit around ten games on average, and Delaney's best tennis often comes in the second.
- Sharipov averages 9.64 games in set two; Delaney averages 10.29
- Delaney has four second-set tiebreaks in 14; Sharipov has two
- Delaney's second-set game average is his highest-impact set
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's opening sets frequently go past nine games, and Sharipov's first sets are his closest.
- Sharipov averages 9.64 games in set one; Delaney averages 10.14
- Sharipov has two first-set tiebreaks in 14; Delaney has five
- Delaney's first set has reached 10 or more games in several recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Sharipov's serving and returning hold at recent levels, a two-set win with something like 6-3 6-4 falls short of the line.
- Sharipov kept opponents to one and five games in his last two completed wins
- Sharipov won 10 of 14 straight-sets matches in the sample
- Delaney has lost eight matches in this window in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-sets results dominate both players' recent records, with Sharipov usually the one winning them.
- 12 of Delaney's 14 tracked matches ended in straight sets
- 10 of Sharipov's 14 tracked matches were 2-0 wins
- Only 6 of the 28 combined matches reached a deciding set
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Sharipov's second-set record in this window is near-flawless and he tends to pull away as matches progress.
- Sharipov has won set two in 13 of 14 hard-court matches
- Delaney has lost set two in 8 of 14
- Sharipov won his second set 6-0 against Zhe Jiang on 11 Oct
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Sharipov generally starts quickly and has the stronger first-set record by a wide margin.
- Sharipov has won set one in 10 of 14 hard-court matches
- Delaney has lost set one in 10 of 14
- Sharipov took the opening set 6-1 in Jinan on 11 Oct
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Sharipov most often wins without dropping a set, and Delaney's recent straight-sets defeats fit that pattern.
- 10 of Sharipov's 14 tracked matches finished 2-0
- Sharipov won his last two completed matches 2-0 with 13 and 25 games
- Delaney has lost 8 of 14 in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMarat Sharipov (RUS) 2-0Estimated chance61%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' recent matches were decided without a tiebreak, often by clear margins.
- 9 of Sharipov's 14 matches had no tiebreak
- 8 of Delaney's 14 matches had no tiebreak
- Sharipov won his last two matches with no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.18 price requires 84.7%, above our 76.0% estimate.

Previous match context available

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

12W 3L

6-1 6-0—Zhe Jiang

6-3 3-0 ret.#422Omar Jasika

7-5 6-4#432Semen Pankin

6-2 7-6(5)#194Andre Ilagan

3-6 6-3 6-1#126Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-3#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(11) 6-2#607Naoya Honda

6-0 6-3#187Pavel Kotov

7-5 6-3#278Petr Bar Biryukov

7-6(4) 6-3#192Elias Ymer

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#110Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#237Ilya Ivashka

6-3 7-5#187Pavel Kotov

6-4 6-4#422Omar Jasika

Jake Delaney

7W 8L

4-3 ret.#887Ajeet Rai

7-6(4) 6-4—Unknown Player

6-4 6-0—Wihan Van Der Merwe

6-2 6-2—Harrison Satara

7-6(7) 7-6(6)#893Derek Pham

7-6(3) 6-3—Lachlan Vickery

6-3 7-5#852Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#177Taro Daniel

6-3 6-2#185Bernard Tomic

4-6 6-3 6-4#602Hikaru Shiraishi

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#187Pavel Kotov

2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(6)#247Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#481Koki Matsuda

6-0 6-4#558Hyeon Chung

6-2 6-4#475Moerani Bouzige

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

M(Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Jake DelaneyDelaneyJD

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Jake Delaney's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.1%+1.0pp63.1%

1st Serve Won80.2%+3.8pp76.4%

2nd Serve Won55.6%+6.4pp49.2%

Aces / Match10.5—10.3

Double Faults / Match1.31.6 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.4%+7.5pp31.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted41.7%—42.0%

Break Pts Saved72.2%+4.9pp77.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.5%+4.9pp49.6%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.1%1st Serve In+1.0pp63.1%

80.2%1st Serve Won+3.8pp76.4%

55.6%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp49.2%

10.5Aces / Match—10.3

1.3Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

39.4%Return Pts Won+7.5pp31.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

41.7%Break Pts Converted—42.0%

72.2%Break Pts Saved+4.9pp77.1%

Points · 1–0

54.5%Total Pts Won+4.9pp49.6%

Marat Sharipov

Jake Delaney

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marat Sharipov (RUS) 2-0

Jake Delaney

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

Jake Delaney

Stat Battle