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Predictions graded

Luka Pavlovic #207France2Kangyuan ShiChina0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 05:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Luka Pavlovic

France

French right-hander; reached career-high ATP singles No. 184 in July 2025. He qualified for his first Grand Slam main draw at Roland Garros in May 2026.

Current ranking: #207
Peak ranking: #184 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Kangyuan Shi

China

Chinese player with hard courts listed as his preferred surface. Reliable ranking, career-high and biographical detail are not available, so recent results information is the main reference point.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Qualifying at the Jinan Challenger: Pavlovic, ranked 207, meets unranked Shi, and the hard-court record points to Pavlovic, with a straight-sets win the most likely single scoreline.

The catch is price. Pavlovic at 1.03 leaves nothing, while 9.0 on Shi is the one quote that pays enough to be worth taking.

Context

Shi's hard-court sample contains no three-set matches at all — two 2-0 wins and six 0-2 losses.
Shi's completed hard-court matches have averaged 18.25 games and none has reached a third set, so a long, grinding contest is not the pattern his results show. That cuts both ways: it points to a quick finish, but a player who loses in straight sets so often can also be beaten quickly by a stronger opponent. Two retirements were excluded from the sample, and eight matches is a small base.
- Eight completed hard-court best-of-three matches tracked between 25 August 2025 and 11 October 2026, retirements excluded
- Six of the eight were 0-2 defeats, with two 2-0 wins and no third sets
- Average total games per match: 18.25; one tiebreak across the eight matches
Pavlovic is a right-hander ranked No. 207 who has started matches well on this surface.
Ten first sets won from 14, with only one of those sets reaching a tiebreak, gives Pavlovic a reliable platform on hard courts. The same sample shows his second sets tightening to 5.36 games won against 5.29 lost, so an early lead has not always turned into a straightforward finish. The sample covers 14 completed hard-court matches from 22 July to 11 October 2026.
- 14 completed hard-court matches tracked from 22 July to 11 October 2026
- Set one: 10 wins, 4 losses; average 5.57 games won against 4.14 lost; one tiebreak
- Set two: 8 wins, 6 losses; average 5.36 games won against 5.29 lost
Pavlovic won the first set 6-4 and then dropped the next two 4-6 1-6, so his recent results are not a clean run of wins. Simakin is higher-ranked than Shi at No. 154, and the way the match turned after an even start is the kind of opening Shi would need to exploit. It is one result inside a 14-match hard-court sample, not a verdict on Pavlovic's overall level.
- 5 October 2026: lost 6-4 4-6 1-6 to Ilia Simakin, ranked No. 154
- 11 games won, 16 lost across the three sets
- Completed without a retirement
This is a second-tier ATP Challenger staged over seven days, and the result sits at the very start of that week. It fixes the event level and calendar position for reading the match: a first-round win opens a full week of possible matches, while a loss ends the week immediately. A seven-day draw also means the early rounds are played on consecutive days, so any winner here returns quickly.
- Entry list for the 2026 Jinan Challenger confirmed with dates of 12-18 October
- Jinan Open qualifying matches were played
- This fixture is scheduled for 12 October, the tournament's opening day
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic has the stronger hard-court record and a clear ranking advantage over an opponent with a losing run.
- Pavlovic is 8-6 on hard courts in his last 14 completed matches.
- He has won 58.8% of hard-court sets and 52.5% of hard-court games in that span.
- Shi is 4-9 on hard courts in his last 13 completed matches.
- Shi has lost the first set in six of eight hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLuka PavlovicEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-set averages sit just above the line, so a close opening set is more likely than a quick one.
- Pavlovic's set-one average is 9.71 total games.
- Shi's set-one average is 9.75 total games.
- Pavlovic has one tiebreak in 14 first sets.
- Shi has one tiebreak in 8 first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shi's hard-court matches have usually finished quickly, pointing to fewer than 21.5 games.
- Shi's hard-court set evidence averages 18.25 total games per match.
- Six of Shi's eight hard-court matches in set evidence were straight-set finishes.
- Pavlovic's most recent win was 7-5 6-3, 21 total games.
- Pavlovic has lost 0-2 twice in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic's second sets often go past 9.5 games, while Shi's are shorter.
- Pavlovic's set-two average is 10.64 total games.
- Shi's set-two average is 8.50 total games.
- Pavlovic has six tiebreaks in 14 second sets.
- Shi has no tiebreaks in 8 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic starts hard-court matches better and Shi has often trailed after the first set.
- Pavlovic has won set one in 10 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Shi has lost set one in 6 of 8 hard-court matches.
- Pavlovic averages 5.57 games won and 4.14 lost in set one.
- Shi averages 4.25 games won and 5.50 lost in set one.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLuka PavlovicEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both players have ended in two sets.
- Shi's hard-court set evidence has eight straight-set results in eight matches.
- Pavlovic has finished in straight sets in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Pavlovic's scorelines include six 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses.
- Shi's set evidence includes two 2-0 wins and six 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic's second-set record is stronger and Shi has struggled to stay level in second sets.
- Pavlovic has won set two in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Shi has lost set two in 6 of 8 hard-court matches.
- Pavlovic averages 5.36 games won and 5.29 lost in set two.
- Shi averages 3.38 games won and 5.13 lost in set two.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLuka PavlovicEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic is the stronger player and Shi has often lost in straight sets.
- Pavlovic's hard-court scorelines include six 2-0 wins in 14 matches.
- Shi's hard-court set evidence includes six 0-2 losses in eight matches.
- Pavlovic won his latest match 7-5 6-3.
- Shi's latest win was 6-4 6-3.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonLuka Pavlovic 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shi's matches have seldom reached tiebreaks, so a match without one is more likely.
- Shi has had only one tiebreak in eight hard-court matches.
- Pavlovic has had seven tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- Six of Pavlovic's 14 hard-court matches were 2-0 wins.
- Shi's hard-court set evidence has eight straight-set matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Luka Pavlovic

8W 7L

7-5 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

4-6 6-4 6-1#154Ilia Simakin

6-2 6-3#110Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#324Akira Santillan

6-4 6-7(6) 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

3-6 6-1 7-6(6)#605Hunter Heck

7-5 6-3—Ha Minh Duc Vu

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#96Jacob Fearnley

6-3 6-7(3) 7-5#200Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(2) 7-6(1)#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 7-5#141Vilius Gaubas

6-4 3-6 6-1#272Matteo Martineau

6-2 7-6(3)#202Keegan Smith

6-1 6-2#317Mert Alkaya

6-4 7-6(6)#277Yi Zhou

Kangyuan Shi

4W 11L

6-4 6-3#1310Sergey Betov

6-0 6-3—Natsuki Yamamoto

7-5 4-6 10-7—Haolong He

6-7(3) 4-0 ret.—Charles Josshua Kinaadman

6-2 1-6 12-10—Kenta Nakamura

6-4 6-1—Xiaoyin Yang

7-5 6-4—Chun-Chien Hou

5-3 ret.—Noritaka Koizumi

3-6 6-3 10-8—Haruto Ishikawa

3-6 6-4 10-7—Ryuichiro Nakano

6-2 6-2—Yaoyu Yang

6-4 6-3#864Egor Pleshivtsev

2-6 6-4 10-5—Shaoyun Liu

7-6(2) 6-1—Yue Xia

6-3 6-3—Jiayang Dong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LPLuka PavlovicPavlovic

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Kangyuan ShiShiKS

Luka Pavlovic carries the stronger recent form — Kangyuan Shi's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 2/1557.2%+7.6pp49.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 2/1579.0%+9.5pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 2/1552.4%+4.1pp48.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 2/1510.5+9.51.0

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 2/153.8—4.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 2/1533.5%+13.6pp47.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 2/1535.2%+12.2pp47.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 2/1564.4%+39.4pp25.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 2/1550.3%+2.2pp52.5%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

57.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 2/15+7.6pp49.6%

79.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 2/15+9.5pp69.5%

52.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 2/15+4.1pp48.3%

10.5Aces / Match15/15 · 2/15+9.51.0

3.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 2/15—4.0

Return · 0–1

33.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 2/15+13.6pp47.1%

Pressure · 1–1

35.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 2/15+12.2pp47.4%

64.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 2/15+39.4pp25.0%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 2/15+2.2pp52.5%