PortugalMaia - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Benjamin Hassan #5002Ryan Nijboer #417Netherlands1

Sets 5-7 · 7-6 · 7-5Mon 12 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Nijboer · 83 places

Benjamin Hassan

Lebanese player born 4 February 1995. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 143 in June 2024; his recorded career match volume is strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #500
Peak ranking: #143 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

Dutch player born 28 July 1999. ITF records his preferred surface as hard and a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 371 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #417
Peak ranking: #371 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Nijboer meets Hassan again eight days after beating him 6-3 6-3 on clay in Braga qualifying, and the clay record points the same way: Nijboer is the likelier winner and the likelier straight-sets winner.

The 1.8 quotes on Nijboer to win the match, the first set and the second set, plus 2.75 for a 2-0 win, carry an edge. Hassan's 1.9 quotes do not.

Context

Seven days before this Maia first round, Nijboer beat Hassan 6-3 6-3 on clay in the final round of Braga qualifying, so the pair arrive with a fresh, same-surface reference for the rematch. That result carried Nijboer into the Braga main draw and is the most recent direct evidence of how the two match up on the surface. The limitation is that it was a single qualifying match settled by one break in each set, and qualifying results often reflect the scheduling and energy a player brings that week rather than a settled gap between the players.
- Ryan Nijboer beat Benjamin Hassan 6-3 6-3 on clay in the third qualifying round at the Braga Challenger .
- The win put Nijboer into the Braga main draw, where he faced Mackenzie McDonald in the first round.
- It was Nijboer's fifth successful qualifying run of 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:05 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger fixture recordtennis.sports-iq.co.uk · 5 Oct 2026
Nijboer arrived at Braga through a fifth qualifying draw of 2026 and then beat eighth seed Mackenzie McDonald, ranked 169, in the first round before losing to Marvin Moeller in the round of 16. The McDonald win is the strongest result in his recent run and the clearest sign he can compete above his ranking on clay, the surface of this match. The counterpoint is that the run produced only one main-draw win, so it shows a high one-off ceiling more than sustained form across a week.
- Nijboer qualified for the Braga main draw and beat eighth seed Mackenzie McDonald 6-1 4-6 6-3 in the first round .
- He lost 6-3 6-3 to Marvin Moeller in the round of 16 .
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Nijboer has full match-by-match counting stats over 15 clay matches, while Hassan has no aggregate serve or return data available at all.
It gives Nijboer the clearer base in the rematch: he wins most points on clay and defends break points well across a 15-match sample. The double-fault count is the soft spot, a free point that can keep an opponent in a set.
- Ryan Nijboer's last 15 clay matches (September 10 to October 11, 2026) produced an 11-4 record.
- He won 53.2% of total points (1,126 of 2,117) and saved 65.1% of break points (69 of 106) in that sample.
- He averaged 3.5 double faults and 3.1 aces per match over the same 15 matches.
Hassan came through the Maia qualifying draw with a straight-sets win over Carlos Taberner, the day before this match, which places him in the main draw on the same clay where Nijboer beat him a week earlier. The result is his most recent completed match and shows he is available and competing at this event. The limitation is that a single qualifying win over a player outside the top 350 gives little indication of how he will handle a rematch with an opponent who has already beaten him comfortably on the surface.
- Benjamin Hassan beat Carlos Taberner 7-6(4) 6-3 in Maia qualifying .
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:05 · Europe/BucharestMaia Open match pagewww.tennis.com · 11 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Nijboer has the better clay form, stronger serve and return numbers, and beat Hassan in straight sets a week ago.
- Nijboer is 11-4 on clay in his last 15 matches; Hassan is 5-5 in his last 10 on the surface.
- Nijboer beat Hassan 6-3 6-3 on clay on October 5 in Braga qualifying.
- Nijboer has a 53.2% total points won and 65.1% break points saved on clay this season.
- Hassan has no aggregate serve or return numbers available.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these players' clay matches tend to finish in fewer than ten games.
- Nijboer's second sets average 8.67 total games.
- Hassan's second sets average 8.8 total games.
- Nijboer won the second set 6-3 in their October 5 meeting.
- Hassan's last second set was 6-3, nine games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's straight-set wins often keep the total games below this line, and the recent head-to-head was short.
- Nijboer's clay matches average 21.3 total games.
- Hassan's clay matches average 22.7 total games.
- Their October 5 meeting had 18 games.
- Nijboer has several recent clay wins with 17 or 18 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hassan's first sets often go beyond nine games, and a tight opener is possible.
- Hassan's first sets average 9.9 total games with three tiebreaks in 10.
- Nijboer's first sets average 9.4 total games.
- Hassan's last first set was 7-6, 13 games.
- Nijboer's first sets have included several 7-5 finishes.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Nijboer starts strongly on clay and won the opening set in the head-to-head.
- Nijboer has won the first set in 10 of 15 clay matches.
- Hassan has won the first set in 6 of 10 clay matches.
- Nijboer won the first set 6-3 in their October 5 meeting.
- Nijboer's first-set games average is 5.33 won to 4.07 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Nijboer's second-set numbers are solid, and he closed out Hassan in straight sets.
- Nijboer has won the second set in 9 of 15 clay matches.
- Hassan has won the second set in 6 of 10 clay matches.
- Nijboer won the second set 6-3 in their October 5 meeting.
- Nijboer's second-set games average is 4.87 won to 3.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches often end in two sets, and Nijboer is favoured to win in straight sets.
- Nijboer has finished 10 of 15 clay matches in straight sets.
- Hassan has finished 6 of 10 clay matches in straight sets.
- Nijboer's most recent win was 6-3 6-2.
- Their October 5 meeting was a straight-set win for Nijboer.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75
The read
Nijboer often wins in straight sets and already did so against Hassan.
- Nijboer has won 2-0 in 7 of 15 clay matches.
- Nijboer beat Hassan 6-3 6-3 on October 5.
- Nijboer's latest win was 6-3 6-2.
- Nijboer has lost 0-2 in 3 of 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostRyan Nijboer 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Nijboer's clay matches avoid tiebreaks, and the head-to-head had none.
- Nijboer has had only 1 tiebreak in 15 clay matches.
- Hassan has had 3 tiebreaks in 10 clay matches.
- Their October 5 meeting had no tiebreak.
- Nijboer's first sets have zero tiebreaks in 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance78%

Prediction history

Ryan Nijboer: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Ryan Nijboer matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ryan Nijboer4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#488Ryan Nijboer0-2#231Guy Den Ouden

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·55%

Missed

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#488Ryan Nijboer0-2#231Guy Den Ouden

Ryan Nijboer to win

55%probability

Guy Den Ouden won

Missed

16 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#453Niels Visker0-2#488Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·58%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#453Niels Visker0-2#488Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

58%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#414Mika Brunold1-2#488Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·60%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#414Mika Brunold1-2#488Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

60%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

12 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#725Amit Vales0-2#501Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#725Amit Vales0-2#501Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

65%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

Benjamin Hassan

8W 7L

7-6(4) 6-3#361Carlos Taberner

6-3 6-3#417Ryan Nijboer

6-3 6-1#767Rafael Izquierdo Luque

7-6(1) 6-3#114Zsombor Piros

1-6 6-4 6-1#215Pol Martin Tiffon

7-6(0) 6-2#702Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-2#877Marsel Ilhan

7-5 6-7(4) ret.#336Francesco Forti

6-4 6-3#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 3-6 7-5#285Juan Manuel La Serna

6-4 6-2#418Matthew William Donald

7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#746Maximilian Marterer

6-1 2-6 6-2#263Dominic Stricker

3-6 3-2 ret.#216Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(2)#447Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Ryan Nijboer

11W 4L

6-3 6-2#577Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-3#239Marvin Moeller

6-1 4-6 6-3#169Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-3 6-3#500Benjamin Hassan

5-7 7-5 6-1#740Nico Hipfl

7-5 6-1#563Alexander Ritschard

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-2#566Pierre Delage

6-2 6-3—Cedric Stanke

6-3 6-4#336Francesco Forti

4-6 6-3 6-4#593Alejandro Juan Mano

6-3 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-3 6-1#489Sander Jong

4-6 6-0 6-3#801Anas Mazdrashki

6-3 6-2—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BHBenjamin HassanHassan

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Ryan NijboerNijboerRN

Ryan Nijboer carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Hassan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In54.8%+6.8pp61.6%

1st Serve Won74.5%+5.4pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won51.7%+2.0pp49.7%

Aces / Match5.7+2.63.1

Double Faults / Match2.80.7 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.7%+8.6pp45.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.6%+4.8pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved62.5%+2.6pp65.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+2.6pp53.2%

Serve · 4–1

54.8%1st Serve In+6.8pp61.6%

74.5%1st Serve Won+5.4pp69.1%

51.7%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp49.7%

5.7Aces / Match+2.63.1

2.8Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won+8.6pp45.3%

Pressure · 0–2

36.6%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp41.4%

62.5%Break Pts Saved+2.6pp65.1%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+2.6pp53.2%

Benjamin Hassan

Ryan Nijboer

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Benjamin Hassan

Ryan Nijboer

Stat Battle