ChinaWTA WuhanFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Han Shi #231China2Kamilla Rakhimova #76Uzbekistan0

Sets 7-6 · 6-1Sun 11 Oct 2026, 05:04 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–827%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 155 places

Han Shi

China

Chinese right-hander ranked No. 242. Her recent record is built almost entirely on hard courts, with 10 wins in her last 13 hard-court matches tracked. She reached the Ankara Open round of 16 with a 6-1, 6-1 opening win over Alya Naz Altinel.

Current ranking: #231
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #76
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Oct 2026, 13:27 · Europe/Bucharest

The prize is a Wuhan main-draw place: home wildcard Han Shi, No. 231, against No.

76 Kamilla Rakhimova, who has looked the sharper of the two. Rakhimova is the likely winner, but her 1.38 price asks for more than her form supports, while Shi at 3.0 is the one quoted selection with a small edge, after beating the qualifying top seed.

Context

Shi, ranked No. 231, beat the qualifying draw's top seed and world No. 36 Peyton Stearns after losing the first set, the strongest current evidence of her hard-court level. It matters because her opponent here, Rakhimova, is ranked No. 76 rather than inside the top 40, so the gap Shi had to close in the opening round does not apply at the same scale. The win also confirms she can come through a three-set, physical match at this venue, which is directly relevant to a qualifying final that carries a main-draw place.
- Shi is a 21-year-old Chinese wildcard whose career-high ranking is No. 200.
- Stearns entered Wuhan qualifying as the top seed at world No. 36.
- Shi lost the opening set before winning the next two.
- The result left Shi one win from the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Oct 2026, 13:25 · Europe/BucharestWuhan Open match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 10 Oct 2026
Shi's Beijing campaign is the clearest reference for how she handles higher-ranked opposition: she won two qualifying matches and then took a set from Qinwen Zheng before losing in three sets. It matters because Rakhimova at No. 76 is a step up from the ITF-level field Shi usually faces, and the Zheng match shows she can stay in a long match with a tour-level player. The near three-hour duration also indicates that a heavy recent workload on this swing is not new to her.
- Shi beat Tereza Mihalikova and Elvina Kalieva to reach the Beijing main draw.
- She lost the first-set tiebreak against Zheng before taking the second set.
- The match lasted almost 2 hours 45 minutes.
- Zheng went on to reach the Beijing semi-finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Oct 2026, 13:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova beat a former Grand Slam champion in straight sets while dropping only three games, whereas Shi needed a deciding set and more than two hours to get past the top seed. That contrast is one of the few measurable asymmetries between them before the qualifying final, since Rakhimova spent considerably less time on court the previous day. Kenin's No. 107 ranking and poor recent form qualify the result, so it reads as a clean, efficient start rather than proof that Rakhimova is a level above Shi.
- Rakhimova is ranked No. 76; Kenin is ranked No. 107.
- Rakhimova won the opening set without dropping a game.
- The win put her one match from the Wuhan main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Oct 2026, 13:25 · Europe/BucharestWuhan Open match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 10 Oct 2026
Rakhimova's Beijing week is the form line behind her qualifying seeding: she beat No. 23 seed Leylah Fernandez in three sets before losing 6-1 7-5 to Iva Jovic in the third round after leading 5-2 in the second set. It matters because it shows she is winning matches against higher-ranked opposition on this hard-court swing, the kind of form that counts against a lower-ranked opponent in Shi. The Jovic defeat also means her recent record contains a lost lead as well as a seeded win, so her Beijing run is not a straight upward trend.
- Rakhimova opened in Beijing with a 6-4 7-6(2) win over Marina Bassols Ribera.
- She then beat Fernandez in three sets.
- Against Jovic she led 5-2 in the second set and held set points.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Oct 2026, 13:25 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova is the much higher-ranked player, has beaten top-30 opposition during this Chinese hard-court swing and has been the more reliable starter.
- Rakhimova is ranked No. 76; Shi is No. 231.
- Rakhimova is 8-6 on hard in her last 14 completed matches, with wins over No. 26 Fernandez and a 6-0 6-3 win over Kenin this week.
- Rakhimova has won the opening set in 9 of 14 hard-court matches; Shi has won it in 7 of 15.
- Shi's hard-court games won sit at 54.9% (196/357), helped by matches against opponents ranked outside the top 300.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most outcomes in this pair's recent matches fall well inside a six-game margin for Shi.
- Shi's last six completed matches produced margins of 0, -6, +3, +1, -3 and +4.
- Rakhimova has lost by six games or more twice in her last six matches.
- Shi's set1 and set2 game averages are 5.07 and 5.60, both close to even.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHan Shi +5.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shi's matches are consistently tight, and a four-game margin is a demanding requirement for a favourite who has also been beaten heavily this window.
- Shi has gone to a deciding set in 7 of her last 15 hard-court matches.
- Her recent game splits include 15-15, 15-14, 19-15 and 14-17.
- Rakhimova lost 6-13 in games to Jovic and 3-12 to Volynets.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHan Shi +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's winning matches tend to come with a clear game cushion, and a two-game margin is a modest ask for the favourite.
- Rakhimova wins 62% of the match estimate, and most of her straight-set wins carry a game margin of three or more.
- Her recent margins: +9 vs Kenin, +5 vs Fernandez, +3 vs Bassols Ribera.
- Her two-set losses were -7 vs Jovic and -9 vs Volynets.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKamilla Rakhimova -1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits just below the line, with decisive early sets common for both players.
- Rakhimova's first sets average 9.21 total games.
- Shi's first sets average 9.67 total games.
- Both players have won opening sets by 6-0, 6-2 and 6-3 margins in this window.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shi's matches regularly pass this total and Rakhimova's average sits just below it, leaving the line close to even.
- Shi's hard-court average total games is 23.8; Rakhimova's is 21.9.
- Shi's last four completed matches totalled 30, 23, 29 and 31 games.
- Both players average close to 10 games per set across set1 and set2.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets for this pair average around the line, with Rakhimova's tendency to fade suggesting longer sets.
- Shi's second sets average 9.93 total games; Rakhimova's average 9.21.
- Rakhimova's second sets include 7-6 and 5-7 scorelines.
- Both players average more than four games won and lost in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova has been the stronger starter in this sample while Shi has frequently dropped the first set.
- Rakhimova has won the opening set in 9 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Shi has lost the opening set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova opened with a 6-0 set against Kenin in Wuhan qualifying.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shi's second-set record is the strongest part of her sample, and Rakhimova has faded after the opening set more often than not.
- Shi has won the second set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has lost the second set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Shi won the second set 7-5 against Stearns and 6-4 against Yuan after losing the opener.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both players finished without a tiebreak, and decisive set margins are common.
- Shi's matches have gone without a tiebreak in 9 of 15 cases.
- Rakhimova's matches have gone without a tiebreak in 10 of 14 cases.
- Rakhimova beat Kenin 6-0 6-3 without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Han Shi

10W 5L

2-6 7-5 6-4#36Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-3#94Renata Zarazua

6-4 7-6(5)#388Yidi Yang

3-6 6-4 6-4#442Chengyiyi Yuan

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2#54Qinwen Zheng

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#117Elvina Kalieva

6-0 6-2#761Tereza Mihalikova

6-3 6-4#225Berfu Cengiz

6-1 5-7 6-2#210Ayla Aksu

6-1 6-1—Alya Naz Altinel

5-7 6-3 6-4#437Unknown Player

7-6(4) 6-3#615Unknown Player

6-3 7-6(2)#459Tahlia Kokkinis

6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#437Unknown Player

6-1 6-1#248Fangran Tian

Kamilla Rakhimova

9W 6L

6-0 6-3#107Sofia Kenin

6-1 7-5#13Iva Jovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#131Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#74Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#104Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#43Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#68Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#109Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 5-7 6-1#33Maria Sakkari

6-2 6-2#41Kimberly Birrell

6-4 6-0#3Jessica Pegula

6-7(1) 6-0 5-2 ret.#55Katerina Siniakova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HSHan ShiShi

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimovaKR

Han Shi carries the stronger recent form — Kamilla Rakhimova's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In62.0%+7.1pp54.9%

1st Serve Won66.5%+4.9pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won47.7%+1.8pp45.9%

Aces / Match4.3+2.12.2

Double Faults / Match4.11.6 fewer5.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.9%+1.1pp46.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.9%+8.9pp50.8%

Break Pts Saved56.4%+0.8pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+1.5pp50.4%

Serve · 5–0

62.0%1st Serve In+7.1pp54.9%

66.5%1st Serve Won+4.9pp61.6%

47.7%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp45.9%

4.3Aces / Match+2.12.2

4.1Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer5.7

Return · 0–1

44.9%Return Pts Won+1.1pp46.0%

Pressure · 1–1

41.9%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp50.8%

56.4%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.4%