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Predictions graded

Vilius Gaubas #141Lithuania2Luka Mikrut #167Croatia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Fri 9 Oct 2026, 14:02 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 26 places

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Lithuanian player, age 21, seeded 14th in the 2026 US Open qualifying draw. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, age 22, whose verified career-best ATP singles ranking is No. 159, achieved in October 2025. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #159 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 23:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Mikrut, the defending Braga champion, brings a seven-match winning run and a 6-3, 6-4 win over Gaubas in last year's final here.

Gaubas, the higher-ranked third seed, fought back from 2-5 down to reach this quarterfinal. Mikrut is the likelier winner and his clay set records point the same way. But Mikrut at 1.5, Gaubas at 2.4, Mikrut's set prices at 1.6 and Mikrut 2-0 at 2.3 all ask for more than the form supports; no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

The 2025 Braga final is the pair's only recorded meeting, and it settled the title in two sets on the court they return to on Friday. Its value is specific: Mikrut has already beaten this exact opponent here with a trophy at stake, and Gaubas comes back to the same event as the player who lost that match. The counterweight is that the result is a year old and the ranking relationship has since reversed, with Gaubas at No. 141 and Mikrut at No. 167.
- Mikrut won the 2025 Braga Open singles title.
- The 2025 Braga Open final, played on 5 October 2025, finished 6-3, 6-4 to Mikrut.
- The two have one recorded meeting, that final; Gaubas was the beaten finalist.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Braga Openen.wikipedia.org · 8 Oct 2026Braga head-to-head recorden.tennistemple.com · 8 Oct 2026
Mikrut is playing the same tournament he won in 2025, and he cleared the opening round without dropping a set against Sumit Nagal, ranked No. 253. Braga is where his ranking reached a career-best No. 159, so the title he is carrying into this week is the reference point for his level rather than a one-off result. The caveat is on the opponent: Nagal has been ranked outside the top 200 for this stretch, so the clean scoreline is a weak signal about how Mikrut handles a quarterfinal against a player nearer his own level.
- Mikrut is the reigning Braga Open champion.
- Mikrut beat Sumit Nagal 6-2, 6-4 in the 2026 first round, the round of 32.
- Mikrut is seeded seventh at the 2026 edition.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Braga Openen.wikipedia.org · 8 Oct 2026
The Genoa 2 title on clay is the anchor of a seven-match winning sequence that has continued through the first two rounds in Braga, including a three-set last-16 win over Oleksii Krutykh. That run is the most current measure of Mikrut's level coming into a quarterfinal against an opponent of similar ranking, and it is longer than anything Gaubas has produced this season. The limit is the opposition: the streak includes a three-setter against a player ranked No. 456, and none of those wins came against a top-150 opponent.
- Mikrut won the Genoa 2 Challenger final 6-4, 7-5 against Carlo Alberto Caniato in late September 2026.
- Mikrut carried a seven-match winning streak into the Braga quarterfinals.
- Mikrut beat Oleksii Krutykh 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4 in the Braga round of 16.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Gaubas entered Braga as the third seed and has won both matches, the second of them from 2-5 down in the second set against Duje Ajdukovic. The comeback matters for reading this fixture because it shows he has already had to solve in-match trouble on this court and will arrive with a completed three-set match behind him. Its limitation is the opposition: Ajdukovic is ranked No. 353 and had come through qualifying, so the fightback says more about Gaubas's ability to stay in a match than about his level against a top-200 opponent.
- Gaubas beat Duje Ajdukovic 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-2 in the Braga round of 16.
- Gaubas trailed 2-5 in the second set before winning it 7-6(4).
- Gaubas is seeded third and beat Joao Domingues 6-1, 7-5 in the opening round.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Luka Mikrut

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Mikrut arrives on a long clay winning run and has already beaten Gaubas at this venue, while Gaubas has been close to even on the surface.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Luka Mikrut

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

Mikrut has started clay matches much more strongly than Gaubas and took the first set in their previous meeting.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Luka Mikrut

1.60fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 62.5%

−3.5ppshort

Mikrut's second-set record on clay is strong and he closed out their last meeting by taking the second set.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Luka Mikrut 2-0

2.30fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 43.5%

−5.5ppshort

Mikrut's clay wins are mostly straight-set and he has already beaten Gaubas in two sets at this event.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Mikrut arrives on a long clay winning run and has already beaten Gaubas at this venue, while Gaubas has been close to even on the surface.
- Mikrut is 10-1 in his last 11 completed clay matches
- He carries a seven-match winning streak and won the Genoa 2 Challenger
- He beat Gaubas 6-3, 6-4 in the 2025 Braga final on the same clay
- Gaubas is 5-6 on clay over the same window, winning 48% of clay sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLuka MikrutEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both men's clay first sets sit just under ten games on average, leaving little room above the line.
- Gaubas's clay first sets average 9.18 total games
- Mikrut's clay first sets average 9.18 total games
- Both players have two first-set tiebreaks in 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay have run longer for both players than opening sets, with Gaubas averaging above ten games.
- Gaubas's clay second sets average 10.55 total games
- Mikrut's clay second sets average 9.64 total games
- Gaubas's most recent second set was a 7-6
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mikrut has started clay matches much more strongly than Gaubas and took the first set in their previous meeting.
- Mikrut is 8-3 in first sets on clay over 11 matches
- Gaubas is 5-6 in first sets on clay over 11 matches
- Mikrut won the opening set 6-3 in the 2025 Braga final
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLuka MikrutEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mikrut's second-set record on clay is strong and he closed out their last meeting by taking the second set.
- Mikrut is 8-3 in second sets on clay over 11 matches
- Gaubas is 6-5 in second sets on clay
- Mikrut won the second set 6-4 in the 2025 Braga final
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLuka MikrutEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mikrut has mostly closed out clay matches in two sets, and Gaubas tends to finish his wins quickly when he gets ahead.
- Mikrut's clay scorelines include six 2-0 wins against one 0-2 loss
- Gaubas has won 4 of his 5 clay matches in straight sets
- Under two and a half sets covers 6 of Mikrut's 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been relatively rare in both players' clay sets, appearing in roughly one set in nine.
- Gaubas has four tiebreaks across 22 clay sets
- Mikrut has one tiebreak across 22 clay sets
- Five of the 22 combined clay matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Vilius Gaubas

7W 8L

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#353Duje Ajdukovic

6-1 7-5#584Joao Domingues

6-4 6-4#78Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 3-6 6-0#410Pavel Lagutin

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-3#163Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-6(1)#270Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-4 6-4#226Max Houkes

6-2 6-3#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#287Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-1 7-5#207Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-3#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(1) 7-5#95Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

Luka Mikrut

12W 3L

6-7(4) 6-4 6-4#456Oleksii Krutykh 6-2 6-4#253Sumit Nagal

6-4 7-5#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)#239Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-4#180Lukas Neumayer

6-1 6-1#232Kimmer Coppejans

6-1 6-2#587Federico Iannaccone

6-3 6-4#157Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-3 4-6 6-3#164Tom Gentzsch

6-3 2-2 ret.#179Laslo Djere

4-6 6-4 6-0#376Robert Strombachs

6-2 6-4#139Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 6-4#157Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

7-5 7-6(3)#173Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-4#190Diego Dedura

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VGVilius GaubasGaubas

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Luka MikrutMikrutLM

Luka Mikrut carries the stronger recent form — Vilius Gaubas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1564.1%+6.0pp58.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.2%+6.7pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.5%+6.3pp55.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.2+1.24.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.50.9 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.2%+1.8pp40.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1548.1%+2.5pp50.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1559.4%+10.6pp70.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.0%+3.5pp53.5%

Serve · 2–3

64.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.0pp58.1%

67.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.7pp73.9%

49.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp55.8%

3.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.24.4

1.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.9 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

38.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp40.0%

Pressure · 0–2

48.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp50.6%

59.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+10.6pp70.0%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.5pp53.5%