SpainVillena - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Jack Pinnington Jones #205United Kingdom2Borna Gojo #150Croatia0

Sets 6-2 · 7-5Fri 9 Oct 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBorna Gojo · 55 places

Jack Pinnington Jones

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 132 on May 18, 2026. His 2026 ITF record was strongest on hard courts at 11-7, compared with 3-5 on clay and 1-3 on grass.

Current ranking: #205
Peak ranking: #132 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Borna Gojo

Croatia

A 196 cm Croatian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 72 on 20 November 2023. The supplied structured feed lists his current ranking at No. 163.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 00:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Gojo's serve against a player who has already beaten him in straight sets is the tension here: the sixth seed is the likelier winner, and straight sets is the likeliest shape.

At 1.8, though, the match price and his chances are less than half a point apart, and the 1.8 on him for the first set is no better. The 1.9 on Pinnington Jones in either market is not worth taking.

Context

The single previous meeting between these players was settled in straight sets on outdoor hard, and the only close passage was a first-set tiebreak that Pinnington Jones took 7-5 before dropping one game. That matters for a hard-court quarterfinal because Pinnington Jones has already answered Gojo's first-strike serving and forehand pressure on this surface family, rather than only on a slower one. The counterweight is that this is one match at a different event, and neither player's results since have been consistent enough to treat the pattern as durable.
- Soma Bay Challenger semifinal on outdoor hard finished 7-6(5) 6-1 to Pinnington Jones
- No other recorded meeting between the two players
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:28 · Europe/BucharestATP Head-to-Head: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Borna Gojowww.atptour.com · 8 Oct 2026
Borna Gojo, ATP No. 150 and the sixth seed at Villena, plays behind a first-strike serve that decides his service games.
Gojo's serve is the biggest single weapon in the match: 10.3 aces per match and 77.9% of first-serve points won across 15 tracked matches mean cheap holds and free points. Pinnington Jones has returned well in Villena but has not faced this serve in the sample. The counterweight is Gojo converting only 32 of 96 break points (33.3%).
- 15 matches tracked in the window ending 8 October 2026: 660 of 1039 first serves in (63.5%)
- 514 of 660 first-serve points won (77.9%)
- 155 aces in 15 matches (10.3 per match); 49 double faults (3.3 per match)
- Break points converted: 32 of 96 (33.3%)
Gojo is the higher-ranked player in this fixture and carries the sixth seeding, and he has reached a seventh quarterfinal of the year without dropping a set in Villena, with his round of 16 decided entirely on tiebreaks. His serve is holding under pressure at this event, which is the part of his game that has to travel on a quick outdoor hard court. The same two tiebreak sets also show how thin the margins in his section have been, so the seed status describes a player performing to his ranking rather than one in unusual dominance.
- Beat No. 267 Philip Henning 7-6(4) 7-6(0) in the Villena round of 16
- Gojo is the sixth seed at Villena and this is his seventh quarterfinal of 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Gojo's round of 16 ran to 26 games and was decided by two tiebreaks, while Pinnington Jones needed 16 games and conceded four. Gojo therefore spent longer on court and was under scoreboard pressure on serve in both sets, and if this quarterfinal turns into a long opening set that is the kind of load that shows up late. Both matches finished in straight sets on the same day with a day before this quarterfinal, so the difference is real but modest and should not be read as a decisive physical divide.
- Gojo beat Philip Henning 7-6(4) 7-6(0), a 26-game match decided by two tiebreaks
- Pinnington Jones beat Joel Schwaerzler 6-1 6-3, a 16-game match in which he conceded four games
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Borna Gojo

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

Gojo starts sets strongly in the available hard-court sample and his serve gives him a small early edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Gojo's serve is the biggest single weapon in the match and he has the better ranking, seeding and hard-court game record across a comparable sample.
- Gojo is 8-6 on hard in this window, winning 53.0% of games (168/317) and 51.5% of points
- He averages 10.2 aces per match, lands 63.4% of first serves and wins 77.3% of first-serve points
- Gojo is ranked 150 and seeded sixth; Pinnington Jones is ranked 205
- Gojo's set1 record on hard is 10-4, Pinnington Jones's is 6-6
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's matches regularly run past 22 games and the two players' serving strength points to longer sets rather than quick breaks.
- Gojo's hard-court matches average 22.6 total games
- Pinnington Jones's average 21.6 total games
- Gojo's round of 16 took 26 games; Pinnington Jones's took 16
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
As many first sets are decided by a single break as go long, and both players have had short opening sets lately.
- Set1 totals average 9.43 games for Gojo and 9.5 for Pinnington Jones
- Only three first-set tiebreaks across the 26 combined hard matches
- Pinnington Jones opened with a 6-1 set in his last match
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets average slightly above nine games in these samples, with both players more willing to trade holds than in the opener.
- Gojo's set2 average total is 9.71 games
- Pinnington Jones's set2 average total is 9.42 games
- Two set2 tiebreaks in Gojo's sample, one in Pinnington Jones's
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' hard-court records, with Gojo's 2-0 count (7 of 14) the strongest single pattern.
- Gojo has played three sets in 5 of 14 hard-court matches
- Pinnington Jones has played three sets in 3 of 12
- Both average under 2.4 sets per match on the surface
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Gojo starts sets strongly in the available hard-court sample and his serve gives him a small early edge.
- Gojo has won set 1 in 10 of 14 hard-court matches in this sample
- Pinnington Jones has won set 1 in 6 of 12
- Gojo's set1 games won average is 5.29 against 4.14 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's second-set record on hard is solid and slightly better than his opponent's, though both are competitive.
- Gojo has won set 2 in 9 of 14 hard-court matches
- Pinnington Jones has won set 2 in 7 of 12
- Gojo's set2 games average is 5.29 won against 4.43 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Across both samples the clear majority of matches finish without a tiebreak, largely because both players break at least once per set.
- Gojo's hard-court matches featured a tiebreak 21% of the time
- Pinnington Jones's featured one 33% of the time
- Gojo's round of 16 was the exception, with two tiebreak sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Jack Pinnington Jones

8W 7L

6-1 6-3#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-2#190Diego Dedura

6-2 6-4#328Thomas Faurel

3-6 6-3 3-0 ret.#175Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-0#282Michele Ribecai

2-6 6-4 6-4#356Moez Echargui

2-6 7-6(6) 6-3#107Otto Virtanen

7-6(4) 6-4#486Trevor Svajda

6-2 6-4#194Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#203Andres Andrade

6-2 2-0 ret.#222Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#193David Jorda Sanchis

7-6(5) 6-4#538Millen Hurrion

7-5 6-1#100Toby Samuel

6-3 7-6(5) 7-5#18Brandon Nakashima

Borna Gojo

8W 7L

7-6(4) 7-6(0)#267Philip Henning 6-2 6-2—Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

3-6 6-3 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

7-5 6-3#405Vadym Ursu

6-2 3-6 6-3#72Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-4#272Matteo Martineau

6-4 7-6(6)#380Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#93Bu Yunchaokete

6-1 6-4#196Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-3 6-1#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 4-6 6-4#222Felix Gill

6-2 6-4#369Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-2 6-2#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 6-4#212Colton Smith

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JJJack Pinnington JonesJones

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Borna GojoGojoBG

Borna Gojo carries the stronger recent form — Jack Pinnington Jones's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In59.8%+3.7pp63.5%

1st Serve Won67.9%+10.0pp77.9%

2nd Serve Won46.0%+2.0pp48.0%

Aces / Match4.0+6.310.3

Double Faults / Match3.70.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+5.4pp35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.0%+18.7pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved53.1%+14.0pp67.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+0.8pp51.3%

Serve · 0–5

59.8%1st Serve In+3.7pp63.5%

67.9%1st Serve Won+10.0pp77.9%

46.0%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp48.0%

4.0Aces / Match+6.310.3

3.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+5.4pp35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

52.0%Break Pts Converted+18.7pp33.3%

53.1%Break Pts Saved+14.0pp67.1%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.3%