TürkiyeWTA SamsunFinished

Ayla Aksu #210Türkiye2Fiona Crawley #234United States1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Fri 9 Oct 2026, 09:17Quarter-FinalHard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAyla Aksu · 24 places

Ayla Aksu

Türkiye

Turkish right-hander, born 15 July 1996. Her WTA ranking rose from No. 305 in February 2026 to No. 202 in early August; no current injury or absence signal was returned in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #210
Peak ranking: #198 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Fiona Crawley

United States

American player, born 7 February 2002. Her WTA profile listed her at No. 253 in singles, while Tennis Abstract records a career-high No. 182 on 2 March 2026.

Current ranking: #234
Peak ranking: #182 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

The Samsun quarter-final puts home player Ayla Aksu, No. 210, against No.

234 Fiona Crawley, and the recent hard-court evidence tilts to Crawley: 10 wins in 14 against Aksu's 6-8, and 11 of her last 14 second sets won. Crawley to win is the likelier result. Her 1.65 price is around fair, and no reviewed price offers a clear advantage.

Context

The clearest condition difference is Aksu's shorter turnaround after a three-set round of 16 on 8 October, with Crawley's finished on 7 October. Both have played their recent tennis on hard courts, no availability concerns are reported, and the set-level records are the main sporting split.

Dudeney came into the second round off the biggest win of her career, a first-round defeat of the top seed, so Aksu's comeback is worth more than the No. 251 ranking of the opponent suggests. Aksu has won twice in Samsun, over Arango and Dudeney, both on the hard courts used for this event. For this quarterfinal it establishes that she is converting against better-ranked opposition, which is the relevant baseline against a No. 234 opponent; it is also the first time this week that she starts as the higher-ranked player. The limitation is that neither of her opponents was seeded, while Crawley has already beaten a seed in this draw.
- Samsun Open round of 16, : Aksu beat Alicia Dudeney 3-6 6-3 6-3
- Dudeney had eliminated the tournament's top seed in the first round
- Aksu opened with a 6-3 6-2 win over Emiliana Arango
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 15:42 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 8 Oct 2026
Selekhmeteva was seeded fifth and ranked No. 101, so the win is the best result of Crawley's week and the clearest evidence that a player ranked No. 234 is beating main-draw opposition directly rather than relying on a qualifying path. Crawley also took out Bronzetti in straight sets, giving her two wins over higher-ranked opponents in the same week, which is the comparison point with Aksu's wins over the No. 138 and the No. 251. The counterweight is that Crawley lost the opening set 4-6 and only closed the match in a third set, against an opponent who had been taken to 7-5 and a tiebreak in her own opener.
- Samsun Open round of 16, : Crawley beat fifth seed Oksana Selekhmeteva 4-6 6-4 6-4
- Selekhmeteva was ranked No. 101, the highest-ranked opponent Crawley has beaten this week
- Crawley beat Lucia Bronzetti 6-2 6-4 in the first round on 5 October
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 15:42 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 8 Oct 2026
Aksu is the home player at No. 210 and has reached the quarterfinal with two wins in Samsun, one of them from a set down.
The most consistent feature of Aksu's recent hard-court tennis is a slow start: she has won four of her last 14 first sets and lost ten, with no first-set tiebreak in that span, so she has regularly had to chase matches. That matters against an opponent who has been the stronger front-runner this week. The counterweight is that Aksu's second sets in the same 14-match sample are level at 7-7, so she has often corrected within matches.
- Home setEvidence, 14 hard-court matches from 14 July to 8 October 2026: Aksu has won 4 first sets and lost 10, with no first-set tiebreak.
- Her opening sets average 3.86 games won and 5.21 games lost across that sample.
- Her second sets in the same 14 matches are level at 7-7.
- One retired match is excluded from the sample.
Both players needed three sets to get through the round of 16, but the matches fell on different days: Crawley finished hers and Aksu, so Aksu has about a day less recovery before the Friday quarterfinal. The gap is a genuine asymmetry rather than a shared routine, because both have already spent long stretches on court this week and the quarterfinal immediately follows Aksu's three-setter. It is still a modest factor, since both will have had at least one day away from competition, but it is the clearest difference in how the two have arrived at this round.
- Crawley's round of 16 finished 4-6 6-4 6-4
- Aksu's round of 16 finished 3-6 6-3 6-3
- The quarterfinal between the two is scheduled for 9 October
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 15:42 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetsUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69%

−6.0ppshort

Most recent matches for both players have ended in two sets on this surface.

Set 2 WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Fiona Crawley

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

−0.5ppshort

Crawley's second-set record is the standout number for either player on this surface.

Set 1 WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Fiona Crawley

1.60fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 62.5%

−3.5ppshort

Crawley has opened matches far better than Aksu, who has lost 10 of her last 14 first sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Crawley has the stronger recent hard-court record and has beaten higher-ranked opponents this week, while Aksu has lost more than she has won over the same stretch.
- Crawley is 10-4 in her last 14 hard-court matches; Aksu is 6-8
- Crawley beat No. 101 Selekhmeteva and No. 132 Bronzetti this week
- Crawley has won 11 of her last 14 second sets on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerFiona CrawleyMarket price1.65Estimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aksu has won or stayed within a few games often enough that a four-game cushion covers most of her recent results.
- Aksu's last six hard matches produced a +11 game margin (72-61)
- Aksu is the higher-ranked player at 210
- Aksu won 6-3 6-2 against No. 138 Arango here
BetBugs · Game HandicapAyla Aksu +3.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players are close in ranking and Aksu has also been winning games recently, so a three-game allowance covers much of her range.
- Aksu is ranked 210, Crawley 234
- Aksu's last six matches gave her a +11 game margin
- Aksu's last match was 3-6 6-3 6-3, decided inside three games in the final set
BetBugs · Game HandicapAyla Aksu +2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have usually been decided short of 10 games for both players.
- Crawley's second sets average 8.86 total games; Aksu's 9.79
- Combined second-set average is about 9.3 games
- Crawley has won 11 of 14 second sets, often by a clear margin
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average below the line and have rarely gone to a tiebreak.
- Aksu's first sets average 9.07 total games, Crawley's 9.79
- Combined first-set average is about 9.4 games
- Aksu has had no first-set tiebreak in 14 hard matches, Crawley one
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley has been winning games by a wider margin than Aksu across each player's last six matches.
- Crawley's last six hard matches produced a +21 game margin (86-65)
- Aksu's last six produced +11 (72-61)
- Crawley has won 10 of her last 14 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapFiona Crawley -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' 14-match game totals average just under the line, and their sets have rarely been extended to tiebreaks.
- Aksu averages 22.2 total games per hard-court match, Crawley 22.5
- Both average 2.36 sets per match across 14 matches each
- Only 5 of the pair's combined 28 recent matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Most recent matches for both players have ended in two sets on this surface.
- 18 of the pair's combined 28 recent hard-court matches finished in two sets
- Crawley had 9 straight-set results in 14, Aksu 9 in 14
- Both average 2.36 sets per match
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.45Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Crawley's second-set record is the standout number for either player on this surface.
- Crawley has won 11 of her last 14 second sets on hard; Aksu 7 of 14
- Crawley's second sets average 5.5 games won to 3.36 lost
- Aksu's second sets average 4.64 games won to 5.14 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerFiona CrawleyMarket price1.60Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Crawley has opened matches far better than Aksu, who has lost 10 of her last 14 first sets.
- Crawley has won 8 of her last 14 first sets on hard; Aksu 4 of 14
- Crawley's first sets average 5.0 games won to 4.79 lost
- Aksu's first sets average 3.86 games won to 5.21 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerFiona CrawleyMarket price1.60Estimated chance59%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sets have generally been decided before reaching a tiebreak for both players.
- 5 of the pair's combined 28 recent hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Aksu's first sets produced none in 14 matches; Crawley's one
- Both players' average set totals are under 10 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance80%

Previous match context available

Ayla Aksu

6W 9L

3-6 6-3 6-3#251Alicia Dudeney 6-3 6-2#138Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-3#196Elena Pridankina

6-1 5-7 6-2#231Han Shi

6-1 7-6(3)#299Yuki Naito

4-6 7-5 7-5#268Elena Malygina

6-2 6-3#125Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 7-5#488Alana Smith

2-6 7-6(4) 6-2#673Allegra Korpanec Davies

6-3 6-2#46Daria Snigur

2-6 6-3 6-4#159Sofia Costoulas

7-5 6-2#159Sofia Costoulas

6-3 6-3#296Viktoria Morvayova

7-5 6-0#154Vendula Valdmannova

3-6 6-2 ret.#278Elena Micic

Fiona Crawley

11W 4L

4-6 6-4 6-4#101Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-2 6-4#132Lucia Bronzetti

7-5 2-6 6-4#196Elena Pridankina

6-3 6-1#130Noma Akugue Noha

2-6 6-3 7-5#274Lois Boisson

4-6 6-3 6-3#812Adelina Lachinova

6-1 7-6(4)#202Carole Monnet

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#170Anna Siskova

6-3 2-0 ret.#328Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#195Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#347Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#354Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#99Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#564Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#98Simona Waltert

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AAAyla AksuAksu

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Fiona CrawleyCrawleyFC

Ayla Aksu carries the stronger recent form — Fiona Crawley's route runs through return.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.8%+6.6pp56.2%

1st Serve Won58.1%+3.3pp61.4%

2nd Serve Won46.3%+1.3pp45.0%

Aces / Match1.2+0.30.9

Double Faults / Match3.7—3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.1%+8.0pp52.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.1%+2.3pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved53.4%+1.9pp51.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+4.0pp53.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.8%1st Serve In+6.6pp56.2%

58.1%1st Serve Won+3.3pp61.4%

46.3%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp45.0%

1.2Aces / Match+0.30.9

3.7Double Faults / Match—3.5

Return · 0–1

44.1%Return Pts Won+8.0pp52.1%

Pressure · 2–0

49.1%Break Pts Converted+2.3pp46.8%

53.4%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp51.5%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+4.0pp53.1%