SpainVillena - SpainFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Philip Henning #2670Borna Gojo #150Croatia2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Thu 8 Oct 2026, 09:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBorna Gojo · 117 places

Philip Henning

Henning, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His No. 264 singles ranking is his highest listed career position.

Current ranking: #267
Peak ranking: #264
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Borna Gojo

Croatia

A 196 cm Croatian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 72 on 20 November 2023. The supplied structured feed lists his current ranking at No. 163.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 21:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Form meets firepower in Villena's second round: Henning has won 12 of his last 15 hard-court matches and 13 of 15 opening sets, while Gojo, the sixth seed, averages 9.7 aces.

Gojo's serve makes him the likelier winner, but 1.33 is far too demanding. The worthwhile quotes are Henning at 3.00 for the match, 2.60 for the first set and 5.25 for a 2-0 win.

Context

Henning's first-set record is the sharpest number in his recent sample.
His first sets have averaged 5.8 games won to 3.7 lost, with only one tiebreak in the 15-match window, so the sets he takes tend to be taken clearly. The counterweight is Gojo, who has won 9 of his 13 first sets in the same span and serves big enough to jump ahead early. If the pattern holds, Henning's best route into the match is to lead before Gojo's serve settles.
- Henning won 13 of 15 first sets in completed hard-court matches between 13 August and 6 October 2026.
- His first sets averaged 5.8 games won to 3.7 lost, with one tiebreak across the 15 matches.
- Ten of his 12 wins in the window came in straight sets, with two 2-1 wins.
Gojo's serve is the single biggest weapon either player brings into this second-round match.
The 15-match sample makes the serve the defining shot of his game: when the first ball lands he is hard to break, and when it does not, the 47.1% second-serve rate and 3.4 double faults per match give the returner a way in. Henning has won 41.5% of return points across his own 15-match sample, so the first-serve percentage will shape how many looks he gets. The risk for Henning is that Gojo's power can also produce cheap points he cannot answer.
- Gojo hit 145 aces in 15 matches, an average of 9.7 per match.
- He won 510 of 646 first-serve points (78.9%) and 177 of 376 second-serve points (47.1%).
- He averaged 3.4 double faults per match, 51 across the sample.
Gojo's recent hard-court matches have taken their time to resolve more often than not.
Five of his 13 hard-court matches from 21 July to 5 October went to a third set, one won 2-1 and four lost 1-2, with the opening set averaging 9.2 total games and the second 9.5. Six of the thirteen still finished in straight sets, so a brisk match remains a real possibility rather than an outlier. Henning's own hard-court sample is slightly shorter at 20.9 games per match across 15 matches, with only three three-setters.
- Five of 13 completed hard-court matches went to a third set: one 2-1 win and four 1-2 losses.
- Gojo's hard-court matches averaged 22.4 total games between 21 July and 5 October 2026.
- His first sets averaged 9.2 total games and his second sets 9.5.
Henning’s main-draw entry came through qualifying at the -11 event in Villena. That route gives this second-round fixture a different tournament path from Gojo’s seeded entry. It also means Henning had already competed at the venue before this match.
- Henning was listed as a qualifier in the 2026 Villena main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 21:55 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ferrero Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo is the higher-ranked seed with a much bigger serve, which is the most reliable weapon on this hard court.
- Gojo is ranked 150 and seeded sixth here; Henning is ranked 267 and came through qualifying
- Gojo has won 77.5% of first-serve points and 9.3 aces per match on hard (13 matches)
- Gojo is 7-6 on hard in his last 13 completed matches; Henning is 12-3
- Henning has 41.5% return points won against mostly lower-ranked opponents (238, 370, 487, 396)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's matches typically run past this mark, and a close two-set or three-set match naturally produces more games.
- Gojo averages 22.4 total games per hard-court match
- Henning averages 20.9 total games per hard-court match
- Gojo's serve and both players' return numbers suggest competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for these two usually finish at nine games or fewer, so an early 6-3 or 6-2 is a common pattern.
- Henning's first sets average 9.5 total games
- Gojo's first sets average 9.2 total games
- Only one first-set tiebreak between them in 28 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets sit just below the line on average, so nine games or fewer is the slightly more likely outcome.
- Henning's second sets average 9.4 total games
- Gojo's second sets average 9.5 total games
- Gojo's second-serve weakness gives returners chances to break
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish matches in straight sets more often than not, and that pattern favours a two-set match.
- Henning has gone to three sets in 3 of 15 hard-court matches (2.2 sets average)
- Gojo has gone to three sets in 5 of 13 (2.38 sets average)
- Henning has won 10 of 12 victories in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Henning has started matches strongly on hard, taking the first set in nearly every recent match.
- Henning has won the first set in 13 of 15 hard-court matches
- Gojo has won the first set in 9 of 13
- Henning's first sets average 5.8 games won to 3.7 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPhilip HenningEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Henning has the steadier second set across his hard-court sample and punishes weak second serves.
- Henning has won the second set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches
- Gojo has won the second set in 8 of 13
- Gojo's second-serve points won is only 47.3%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPhilip HenningEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' recent hard-court matches, which points to a match without one.
- Only 6 tiebreak matches across 28 combined hard-court matches
- Henning's first sets average 9.5 games with just one tiebreak
- Gojo's return game produces regular breaks of serve
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo double-faults more than Henning, but the combined rate still sits under this line in a typical match.
- Henning averages 1.7 double faults per hard-court match
- Gojo averages 3.2 double faults per hard-court match over 13 matches
- Combined per-match average is about 4.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo supplies most of the aces, and the combined rate sits just below this line.
- Gojo averages 9.3 aces per hard-court match over 13 matches
- Henning averages 3.6 aces per hard-court match over 15 matches
- Combined per-match average is about 12.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 13.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Borna Gojo: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Borna Gojo matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Borna Gojo4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#169Borna Gojo0-2#436Dhakshineswar Suresh

BetBugsBorna Gojo to win·72%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#169Borna Gojo0-2#436Dhakshineswar Suresh

Borna Gojo to win

72%probability

Dhakshineswar Suresh won

Missed

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

—Sebastian Gorzny0-2#169Borna Gojo

BetBugsBorna Gojo to win·78%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

—Sebastian Gorzny0-2#169Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo to win

78%probability

Borna Gojo won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#181Borna Gojo0-2#188Colton Smith

BetBugsBorna Gojo to win·55%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#181Borna Gojo0-2#188Colton Smith

Borna Gojo to win

55%probability

Colton Smith won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong0-2#184Borna Gojo

BetBugsBorna Gojo to win·58%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong0-2#184Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo to win

58%probability

Borna Gojo won

Matched

Previous match context available

Philip Henning

12W 3L

7-6(3) 6-1#238Maks Kasnikowski 7-5 6-0#370Ivan Marrero Curbelo 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#487Thijs Boogaard

6-3 6-4#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#552Alec Deckers

6-4 7-6(1)#396Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-4#895Tomas Curras Abasolo

6-4 2-6 6-4—Joao Dinis Silva

3-6 6-3 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-2 6-1—Alexander Watanabe Eriksson

6-2 6-2—Diogo Coelho

6-4 6-3#391Dan Added

6-4 7-6(0)#713Tristan Mccormick

6-1 6-2#410Pavel Lagutin

6-3 6-4#649Tiago Cacao

Borna Gojo

8W 7L

6-2 6-2—Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

3-6 6-3 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

7-5 6-3#405Vadym Ursu

6-2 3-6 6-3#72Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-4#272Matteo Martineau

6-4 7-6(6)#380Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#93Bu Yunchaokete

6-1 6-4#196Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-3 6-1#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 4-6 6-4#222Felix Gill

6-2 6-4#369Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-2 6-2#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 6-4#212Colton Smith

7-6(10) 6-2#101Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PHPhilip HenningHenning

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Borna GojoGojoBG

Philip Henning carries the stronger recent form — Borna Gojo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In65.0%+1.8pp63.2%

1st Serve Won72.5%+6.4pp78.9%

2nd Serve Won61.2%+14.1pp47.1%

Aces / Match3.6+6.19.7

Double Faults / Match1.71.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.5%+5.5pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.7%+7.4pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved60.3%+8.5pp68.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.5%+3.1pp51.4%

Serve · 3–2

65.0%1st Serve In+1.8pp63.2%

72.5%1st Serve Won+6.4pp78.9%

61.2%2nd Serve Won+14.1pp47.1%

3.6Aces / Match+6.19.7

1.7Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

41.5%Return Pts Won+5.5pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

40.7%Break Pts Converted+7.4pp33.3%

60.3%Break Pts Saved+8.5pp68.8%

Points · 1–0

54.5%Total Pts Won+3.1pp51.4%

Philip Henning

Borna Gojo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Philip Henning

Philip Henning

Philip Henning 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Philip Henning

Borna Gojo

Stat Battle